Prius Plug-in Lithium Ion Battery Replacement Costs

The general public already thinks that a hybrid is worth scrap if the traction battery goes bad. Hell, some even think it is a comprehensive insurance total loss if you lose all your smart keys. PiP/Volt/Leaf won't be viewed any better.

 

I've heard it said that the U.S. now has more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil. So it would make sense to convert gas engines to compressed nat. gas. Not much has to be done to a gasoline car to get it run on nat. gas. The nat. gas distribution infrastructure is not there, so that will have to be dealt with. I still want my Plug-In so I can run mainly on battery power while they duke it out between gasoline and nat. gas. Because of the increased production of nat. gas, the price has really come down, which makes nat. gas more attractive as a car fuel.

 

It's like the complexity argument. Only enthusiasts care. Consumers don't give much, if any, attention beyond purchase & operating costs.

Fortunately, when it comes to battery-packs, there's the kWh value to at least make size/cost references easier. Unfortunately, that value doesn't do a good job of translating to distance.
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I suspect that the topic of this thread is very central to the car of the future. What ever the cost of replacement batteries for the PiP, they will be less than the Leaf and the Volt not to mention the Tesla S and the other more expensive EVs. So long as petrol or some other liquid fuel is available , the PiP may well be the prototype for the car of the near future.

It will be possible for most to meet their travel needs with a PiP like car even without much petrol by just reducing their dependence on (not eliminating) private vehicles for long distance travel. Short distance travel including commuting to work, obviously will remain the highest priority.

When petrol is not practically available to most people because of cost, there will be a ten to twenty year period of obsolete vehicles (the usual vehicle life) where many, if not most vehicles will become expensive paper weights. This could evolve suddenly because of the way world events occur (no one predicted or planned for 9/11).

Those, like us, are likely to feel very good about our PiP purchases. But this remains speculation. No one knows just how the future will unfold.

 

I would say half the price in a few years. Who knows in 10 years, maybe a quarter?

Toyota is going to mass produce and expand Lithium battery output in 2014. They have secured massive amount of Lithium in Argentina. The initial production to begin this year.

Toyota will have better control of the price of Lithium - unlike the volatile price of Nickel.

 

Personally I do not think the PiP is a prototype of near future cars by any stretch.. In my mind the current non-plug in Prius is THAT car. I think the major hang up for me with the PiP is they haev uprated the same electric motor we have in the current Gen III's, and added a Li-Ion in the system to replace the NiMh pack.. I really think for the price difference a Volt is the way to go for plug in.

As far as battery pack replacement it is anyones guess.. On the Volt so far the running average is $4100 for a battery replacement at the owners expense if we ruin them. A couple people have gotten holes punched in the radiator, fried the battery, and picked up the tab. Not sure what the actual cost of the battery is, but it seems GM is just charging a core charge right now, and it is a couple hundred labor (included in the $4100) to drop it out and pop the new one in.. If Toyota charges the owner outright it probably will be $4-6000. I have not had any issues out of our Prius, or the Volt though. So I think the PiP owners will not need to worry. The PiP battery is air cooled as well, so you at least do not need to worry about the radiator issues like the Volt.. So you guys should not need to worry about battery pack replacements unless you damage it in some way physically, or the car interior gets to hot in direct sunlight.. I know GM advises parking the Volt in shade as much as possible, as well as leaving it plugged in when possible. Sure the PiP manuals will probably cover the same stuff since it does not have active battery thermal management.

 

That's an odd thing to say, knowing the electric motor in Prius was over-sized & under-utilized... in other words, the right size for a plug-in hybrid.

As for the Volt comment, what aspect does that refer to? You know that Camry hybrid uses an electric motor very similiar in size to Volt, right? (105 vs. 111 kW)

By the way, a MSRP price difference of over $7,000 is quite a bit... with respect to no long-term business, not the immediate credit dependency. How does future battery price factor in to that?
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Please don't spread that misinformation. Prius PHV DOES have active battery thermal management with a fan using air to cool down and heat up. Other than the temp, the battery management also regulate the cell pressure and state of charge.

 

I suspect you are thinking of the "$4100 repair over a road pebble" thread on the GM-volt forum.

Actually, both radiators were repaired under warranty and as far we know from that thread no battery packs were damaged or replaced.

One owner, WVhybrid, reported his radiator was replaced under warranty and he did not mentioned any problems or replacement related to his battery pack.

The other owner, joesuburb, reported some initial confusion with his dealer who failed to follow the right service notification protocol with GM. He was given an excessive cost estimate not based on the standard GM billing hours for the procedure. The dealer told him he might need a battery replacement but that they wouldn't know until they replaced his battery coolant radiator.

The owner's description of the warning on the console screen and the behavior of the car seems inconsistent with the "reduced power" mode that the Volt would have gone into if the battery was actually overheating.

Ultimately, GM covered the repair under warranty. The owner, joesuburb, never clarified at the end of the thread if the battery ever actually needed to be replaced but it seems unlikely.

 

If Volt's battery pack is $4k to replace, something fishy is going on. That's like $250/kWh.

The tax credit gives $417 per kWh but you'll have to buy the car. Is the replacement battery pack also subsidized?

I would be very pissed if it is because, each Volt will use $7,500 tax credit more than once or as often as owner replace the battery.

 

I'm not aware that Toyota "uprated" the electric motor between the current Gen III Prius and the PiP. The specs that I've seen rated both electric motors at 60 kW. In both cars, that is more power than the battery can output so the full capability of the motor only gets utilized when the gas engine is running and generating additional electricity.

However, I certainly agree that for many drivers the much higher capacity battery pack, range, and output power (~3.5x) in the Volt is worth the extra $2,500 to the consumer once the U.S. battery tax credit is considered.

 

Sure, if they are ok with downsizing to a compact 4 seater that requires premium gas and rated 37 MPG.

Prius PHV's MG2 may have water cooling like how they added that for Prius v (wagon). It doesn't weight as much as Prius v but it will spend more miles powered by MG2.

 

I know this is a point of some contention as one of the drawbacks of the Volt, but I was thinking about it as I refueled over the weekend (first time this year), and came to the following conclusions:

1. On average I buy 8 gallons of gas every 1000-1200 miles.
2. In my area premium gas is usually about 20 cents per gallon more expensive than regular.
3. I spend an extra $1.60 every 1000-1200 miles because I use premium
4. I spend an extra 15 hundredths of a cent every mile because I use premium instead of regular.

Using premium is for me a non-issue.

edit: particularly when comparing the $1.60 to the 12-16 additional gallons I would need to buy if I drove a 50 mpg prius every 1000-1200 miles.

 

That's one way to look at it by spreading it out to the electric miles as well. However, when you take that long freedom drive and refuel, you'll be paying significantly more and wishing Prius PHV 49 MPG would be nice.

 

There's a trade-off for each one. The PHV is perfect for shorter, low-speed commutes, with the option of taking long trips on the weekend. The Volt is perfect for longer, highway-speed commutes, and staying home on the weekend. Neither is optimized for long trips, as the pack becomes dead weight once depleted, since regen is only worth a couple hundred Wh, but the PHV has less dead weight to carry, so that should be an important consideration for someone trying to choose between one car or the other. Each car has strengths and weaknesses. All I know is that, the more of them that get sold, the better economies of scale (==> lower prices) on lithium battery production.

 

Optimization isn't necessarily a good thing.

PHV is a well balanced choice.

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I had thoughts along these lines when looking at the Volt and Prius Plug-In as well. $32,500 for 35 miles of EV vs $29,500 for 15 miles of EV. The Volt would cover my commute round trip and allow more EV driving, but it was less efficient for long trips. The Prius Plug-In would only cover my commute if I could charge at work (which seems unlikely right now).

Eventually, I figured out I had major hangups about the Volt. It is less efficient both as an EV and an HV, despite being a smaller car. GM does not have Toyota's reputation for reliability, nor does it have as much experience with hybrids. If there are problems with LiON batteries, the Volt becomes useless, while with a Prius Plug-In, I'm still left with a Prius.

The federal (and state, if applicable) tax credits severely distort the choice without regard to efficiency. Without the tax credits, the comparison would be a $40,000 Volt with 35 mile EV range vs a $32,500 Prius Plug-In with 15 mile EV range. While the federal tax credit benefits an individual more for buying a Volt, I think it's useful to take a broader view. The $7,500 federal tax credit incentivizes one individual to buy 35 miles of EV range with a Volt. That same $7,500 federal tax credit incentivizes 3 individuals to buy 15 miles of EV range with a Prius Plug-In. The 3 individuals with Prius Plug-Ins are more likely to fully utilize their combined 45 miles of range. From a national standpoint, the Prius Plug-In will allow more EV miles at fewer WHrs per mile.

Personally, I think the ultimate the goal is national energy independence through less national usage oil not individual maximization of EV miles. The Prius Plug-In is more effective in reducing national oil usage both in oil used to power EV miles and gasoline consumed for HV miles.

 

Has the Prius PHV electric efficiency been released? There's the 84mpge number, which may be include some gas usage. I don't expect it to better the Volt in EV efficiency. It might be close, but the smaller motor and inability to decouple the traction motor and wheels from the rest of the drive train will diminish some of the Prius' efficiency advantages.

And if the Prius had a engine tuned for higher octane fuel, it would be getting even better than 49mpg. As an aside, the fact that Japan and Europe use 91 octane for their regular might have a tiny part in why fuel economy ratings are higher.

Modern engines have knock sensors and I'm sure the Volt could handle regular fuel if some owner wanted to use it on a road trip. It might cause problems, but it won't save much cash. Since when running lower octane fuel a high compression engine loses efficiency. The drop in fuel economy using regular tends to work out about the same per mile cost as using premium.

If I had a Volt, I'd give regular a try on a roadtrip. For day to day use, I'd stick with premium since it has a longer shelf life. I expect Toyota is going to recommend midgrade in the PHV manual for those who mostly use electric.

 

Neither the emission. Volt with ULEV gas engine qualified for $7,500. So did Fisker Karma. That is the major loop hole of the tax credit. A car like iMiEV and Leaf gets the same amount. Why the heck would any manufacture put more than 16 kWh (max) if they can just throw in a dirty gas engine?

 

I've been determing EV efficiency of both the Volt and Prius Plug-In by the dividing usable battery capacity by EV miles. For the Volt, this works out to be 12.9 kWh/35 miles ~=369 Wh/mi. For the Prius Plug-In an upper bound is 4.4kWHr/15 mi ~= 293 Wh/mi. I think this is a conservative estimate since the actual usable battery capacity is probably 3.5 kWh or less, so the number is actually <= 237 Wh/mi. Of course, the 15 miles is also a Toyota estimate, but my experience is that Toyota is conservative in the numbers they release, so I expect the the EV range to be at least 15 miles.

The 87 MPGe is a blended use number, which can't be compared directly to the Volt's 93 MPGe non-blended number. It is the only explanation I can come up with that explains how the Prius Plug-In has a lower MPGe number than the Volt, despite having a lower WHr/mi.

I don't think the Prius Plug-In motor is too small. Sure the Volt can accelerate faster, but the Prius Plug-In has more than enough acceleration. I think the major factors for EV efficiency that favor the Prius Plug-In b/c it are that it is more aerodynamic and lighter.