Prius PHV to end production this month of June 2015?

not me, i've got nothing below deck

 

The real question is what platform the next PHEV Prius will be; TNGA has space for a hybrid battery under the seat, but that's not big enough for a battery with enough range for a plug-in. The rear deck on TNGA is very shallow as well, to accommodate a transversely-mounted center muffler. I just don't see how they'll improve on hatch space significantly in the next-gen Prime with the limitations of TNGA. The Ioniq and Niro PHEV are a much better layout; the battery occupies a well under the trunk that runs up the center of the car and to (under? It's been a while since I looked at it at the Chicago Auto Show) the rear seat, so there's no difference in cargo volume between the conventional hybrid and plug-in. Of course, to do that there's also no provision for a spare tire well at all, which for a lot of people around here is a deal breaker, it seems.

 

The real problem in fitting the battery is just one thing...the gas tank. Get rid of that and all the problems are solved.
Frees up lots of space up front, too.

Mike

 

Anathema !!

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Yeah, I have sat in the Pacifica at the car show (but not driven it), and it is a beautiful vehicle. Love the versatility of a 7-seat PHEV, but as a family of 4 with no real need for the space it would be hard to justify with large amount of driving I do find my job. Secondly, I don’t trust FCA...

I did have a ‘19 Sienna as a rental earlier this year for a trip, and that is also a very nice vehicle... not sure why Toyota hasn’t yet move to make an HSD version of it, or better yet a PHEV? I am sure there is plenty of space for the electrical parts... But I digress.

 

I can answer the question Why not Sienna? The chassis is not built for it yet.
I have a 7-seat 2009 VW Routan minivan (variant of Grand Caravan), which is essentially the forerunner of Pacifica. VW was not allowed to use Chrysler's stow and go seats, so I have a huge empty space of under floor storage. FCA was simply able to take their existing vehcile and put the HV batteries under the floor. It was slam dunk easy for FCA.

 

Exactly, they can also make the car slightly taller or longer if needed. Design it for the phev not the hybrid if cargo room really is not enough. The 2019 BMW 330e loses 105 liters (3.7 cubic feet) for its 12 kwh liquid cooled battery.

 

....keep in mind EPA cargo space numbers for liftbacks are crazy la-la land numbers. I assume EPA wanted to let plug-ins claim big (but fake) cargo space numbers. If you do not care about cargo space, but would like to feel good about 19-ft3 on paper...you got it!

 

Liquid cooling adds cost & weight. To be a mass-market leader, doing the same as a luxury brand doesn't make sense. GM learned that lesson the hard way. The tradeoff isn't worth it.

 

the middle row on our plugin style doesn't have stow & go - it has quick release features so you can pop the mid row out both ½'s in less than a minute. The rear row still has stow and go, although it would be great to have even more batteries back there.

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Yes, yes, exactly, this is why all modern cars have air cooled engines. They are simpler and cost less. No reason to change since the original vw bug.... or ...

Does Toyota want the prius to compete with the yaris? Which sells more. Of course adding a battery adds cost and weight to an ice vehicle. In the case of the prius it was worth it. Now how much weight and cost will a 12 kwh liquid cooled battery add compared to that original 4.4 kwh battery in 2012? The 4.4 kwh prius phv was 1420 kg, the 8.8 kwh next generation prius prime is 1526 kg. That's 106 kg for independent rear suspension and bigger battery. That heavier car with the heavier battery actually costs less (technology move), is priced lower, gets better fuel economy both on plug electricity and gasoline, and handles better.

Compare Side-by-Side



I used the bmw because this is new packaging of a bigger battery (in terms of energy and power) that takes up less space. My guess is a liquid cooled 12 kwh battery even including the cooling system costs less than air cooled, we shall see if panasonic/toyota have some magic to bring costs down closer to what panasonic/tesla and lg have done with their liquid cooled pack. My guess is they would be better off changing now. Does weight really matter. The tesla model 3 is as efficient as the prime on electricity yet handles better despite weighing much more. Toyota either needs to drive price down on their air cooled batteries or take advantage of less expensive liquid cooled packs that take less volume.

 

You are using that term wrong.

The Sondors electric car is vaporware. Sondors Electric Car | An affordable, attractive electric car that everyone can enjoy
The Rivian truck may end up being vaporware.
A Prius BEV is vaporware.

The Escape hybrid and PHEV are coming to dealers as a 2020 model. Ford's past actions means being skepical of the efficiency numbers is prudent, but the car is far, far from vaporware at this point.

There is that void under the battery, so there is potential to improve the cargo space even with the current battery chemistry. I agree that TNGA could have been better designed for a PHEV.

The Ioniq PHEV does lose cargo space to the hybrid, but far less than the Prime does. I believe I posted the numbers in this thread. The Electric doesn't lose space compared to the PHEV. Though it switches the IRS to a torsion bar.

That space is not for airflow. It is an empty void serving no purpose. IIRC, the vent ducting for the battery cooling system can be seen in the photos of that space.

Even without that void, liquid cooling would allow a smaller battery because the liquid requires narrower passages than air to do its job. Then better cooling means the engineers can leverage more out a battery of the same capacity.

Up until now, the hybrid drivetrain available for a vehicle the size of the Sienna was the one for the RX/Highlander. That one was more power oriented, and the MPG improvement for the price was not great, and would not have sold well. Take a look at the Highlander hybrid's sales figures.

The HiHy has gone to a I4 from a V6. So a hybrid Sienna may be part of its redesign.

A BEV is not a PHEV.
A PHEV requires more design compromises. Not only do you need to find the space for an engine and electric motor, but use also for a battery that needs to be cool, and an exhaust system throwing off a lot of heat. Placing batteries in an ICE platform for a BEV is easy compared to making a PHEV.

The problems with the cargo space numbers for hatchbacks, wagons, and SUVs existed long before PHEVs were even a thing. There are nearly a dozen revisions to the standard used for taking the measure. The EPA only cares about it because their size class system is based upon interior vehicle volume.

While the value posted for EPA specifies which version of the standard to use, the numbers manufacturers put into marketing can be derived with any version.

The Escape hybrid, Escape PHEV, Explorer hybrid, and Aviator PHEV are all using liquid cooling.

 

With all that, you completely evaded the topic of MASS-MARKET sales.

That means MSRP near the consumer mean (not average) without subsidies, since it must be able to compete directly with traditional offerings.

The goal is mainstream volume with several models for each automaker. Remember, the ability to achieve both profitable & sustainable requires a balance of priorities.

 

...and priced accordingly.

 

that will be the question

 

Those are your requirements not mine or the markets but I did address them. The toyota/panasonic air cooled batteries are currently more expensive according to toyota, lg, and tesla than the liquid cooled ones. They could drop the price if they went liquid cooled with a less expensive cell chemistry. liquid cooled plug-ins sell better than air cooled ones in every country but japan. I suppose they can keep it air cooled for some kind of advantage in marketing in their home market, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Do you have figures different than official toyota that they have lowered the price of their air cooled batteries?

This year tesla will sell approximately 300,000 model 3s. Toyota will sell approximately 50,000 primes this year. Which is more mainstream? Which do you think is more profitable? In my state - texas - the prime has higher government subsidies than the model 3, but I've only seen 2 of them and tesla's are everywhere.

Key figures are power density and energy density. Technology moves along all the time. You can think of it as kw/kg, kw/l, kw/$ for power density and kwh/kg, kwh/l, kwh/$. When toyota wanted to have a small 4.4 kwh battery the overhead cost of liquid cooling might not make sense. Let's throw around some numbers. $200/kwh for liquid cooled pack, $400/kwh for air cooled that will work at the high power density levels. For reference tesla expects to be lower than $100/kwh at the pack level in the next 5 years and is already lower than $200/kwh today ($80/kwh at the battery cell level). On a 8.8 kwh pack that liquid cooling would have to cost more than $1760 to have the air cooled pack be less expensive. We all know its a lot less expensive than that. It will of course take of less space. On weight I really don't know, but weight doesn't really seem like much of an issue here.

What are you numbers? Maybe toyota has found a way to drive costs down and keep up reliability. They don't need to go 2170 format they can continue to use a smaller number of larger cells but you need more space to air cool and stay reliable or more expensive chemistries. What are you numbers that make you think air cooled is less expensive. As power goes up it makes less sense to use air cooled on battery packs just as it does on engines.

 

Ugh. Those are market requirements. You're still viewing the world though eyes of an early-adopter.

 

liquid cooling adds to traction pack longevity. The buyers get what they pay for.
If by claiming GM "learned 'that' the hard way", because they canceled the Chevy Volt, does that mean Toyota learned "that" the hard way because they canceled the Prius V? Of course not. Battery manufacturing is constrained. That may very well be why Toyota has been slow to get a electric car out, and why GM limits mass quantities of their battery supplies to go to the Bolt - instead of the Volt. There are tons of dynamics that are changing the market, & it's disingenuous to say the volt was scuttled for anyone specific reason, as opposed to several factors. Many car models have been scuttled recently, and it doesn't mean that each of their demise means that a company has learned "that" the hard way. Certainly Volt sales were higher than some other plugins, yet among those manufacturers selling less, some of those models are still on the market.
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