Prime destined to be doa?

Where We’ve Been, Where We Are, And Where We’re Going

 

Well, I think the write-up fails to give adequate mention to the fact that Fed and state incentives (most notably CA free HOV) seem to be a major factor in Plug_in sales. The good news is the list of states giving incentives is getting longer and longer (NY $2000 as of yesterday as you posted elsewhere). But I do not see Prius Prime at 50000/yr as the article said unless we get extended CA green HOV, which I do predict we will see by June, for the purpose of stimulating PHEV sales. Even then 50000 would be incredible.

If Prime is DOA it's because permanent loss of free CA HOV for PHEV.

 

I don't think it is DOA.
Sure, it will impact sales. However it will do at least as well as the 1st gen IF they sell it nationwide.
With a larger range, it may do even better.

 

also interesting that he thinks prius drivers are the target for prime, and not the mass market, as others have claimed.
and he also thinks toyota has a model 3 competitor up their sleeve.

 

I'd be thrilled if Toyota had a Model 3 competitor in the works. I doubt they could ever win me back, but I would love to see them join in on the competition.
I would also be thrilled to see the Prime hit 50,000/year. However, I highly doubt that unless the price is extremely aggressive.

We will have to see though, I look forward to test driving either/both.

 

Let the record show I made my Prime free CA HOV prediction post at 12:56PM and at 1:23PM CharlesH posted the following confirmation:

As I may have said earlier in this thread, Mark Twain once said "rumors of my death...lets not count our chickens though

 

would you be happier if electricity used to drive xxEVs were generated by coal burning fire power plants or nuclear power plant which generates lots of pollution, each in its own kind, themselves?

 

Fast charging for a very efficient car such as the PiP / Prime doesn't make any sense. Almost nobody would be willing to pull over every 10-20 miles to fast charge their vehicle just to say they completed their trip entirely on electricity. Besides, the cost of public quick charging is currently higher than just buying gasoline.

The big car companies have already stated they are not interested in building charging stations, because in their view, they are in the business of manufacturing vehicles, not building infrastructure.

A cars success shouldn't ride entirely on CA sales, and besides, HOV access for plug-ins is a corruption of an already terrible infrastructure (HOV lanes).

If the Prime fails, it's because it doesn't appeal to the consumer enough to justify its cost, and only that.

Granting HOV access to wealthy people (those that can afford a new car every 4 years) is a form of reverse-progressiveness. It's like having an express lane at the grocery store for those whose income is above a certain threshold. What's worse; plug-in vehicles are extremely efficient in stop and go traffic because the engine shuts off when not accelerating. It's the Hummers and trucks that wreck the environment by all the stopping / going and idling.

If improving environmental outcomes is our goal, single occupancy of HOV lanes should be open only via a toll (HOT lanes).

 

...But I think CA is in the process of re-extending HOV to PHEV plug-ins and the reason is to promote plug-in sales to help make plug-in technology succeed, because it would appear more gov't push still needed. Not saying I agree with it, just saying what it is.

PS- I almost stopped by your place last week to pick up that 5W-20 but I did not want to carry it back on the plane.

 

This makes a lot of sense.

I find it interesting that to wet the buyer's appetites the Tesla is very fast. If the aim is on wise use of energy, wouldn't speed be secondary to efficiency. Is there some loss in range by having such a large electric motor, power control system and battery? I don't know if it is just me, but isn't efficiency linked to transportation being just adequate to the task.

 

Generally, your intuition that efficiency being linked to transportation being just adequate to the task, is correct. However, in certain circumstances, speed also improves efficiency. In the case of Tesla, the dual motor version of the car is both quicker and more efficient (has a longer range) than the single motor version. The reason is that one motor is geared to be efficient at acceleration, while the other is geared to be more efficient at sustained speed. Both motors can be used to quickly bring the car up to speed, and once there, only the motor geared for sustained cruising is used to maintain speed.

Electric vehicle technology is ideally suited to both increase quickness while also increasing range. A larger capacity battery also has an increased ability to output huge amounts of power. Building a motor and controller to take advantage of the increased power capability then becomes a relatively trivial thing.

 

Thanks for the clarification. What you say makes sense.

 

Americans like PEVs just fine, but few would buy one

 

good article, 24% ain't bad, let's do it!

 

I agree. In EV mode with 95kW of electric power waiting for your right foot, the Prime may have the most fun quotient you can get in a Prius. Of course those of us who have that lead foot will probably complain they are only getting 16 to 18 miles out of the battery. I believe it may have a waiting list.

 

a lot will ride on hov stickers. take those out of the picture for all plug in sales in the past and you get a realistic number.

 

At least in NY you get the brand new $2000 tax credit so that helps!

But ultimately I feel CA HOV stickers will rule Prime sales. For 2015, 65% of PHEV sales are in CA alone, and many suspect PiP1 was more than that.

 

Fuelly statistics for (regular) 2016 Prius hatchbacks so far are about 15% better than 3rd gen. Just one more factor to weigh, plus the 4 seats, plus that massive bump in the hatch area.

Toyota Prius Mileage | Fuelly

 

[QUOTE="ny_rob, post: 2327563, member: 86937" ] . . . . . snip . . . . . GM/LG are more than capable of building the vehicle... let's see what happens this fall.

[/QUOTE] If you are young enough to remember - or ever owned a Chevy Vega, (and a full 100% of them fell apart) you might be reluctant ti give 'em another chance. No, I' d much rather trust the Prius, even tho it's not perfect.

 

i'm willing to wait. and i'm no gm lover, but perhaps your memories are worse than mine. i'm willing to give people a second chance, and they've done a good job with the volt so far.