Prime destined to be doa?

I agree with much of what you say and appreciate your optimism. I think that your point about the disproportionate effect higher fuel prices would have on the poor is a particularly good one. I just remember how much the $4 gallon gas price reduced people's unnecessary trips and made them think more about their car's fuel efficiency. I liked the change.

 

I liked it also; maybe too much. Back then diesel was $5 / gallon, but I had a source for $1. Since it was so cheap for me, I drove my Dodge / Cummins truck all over, burning 35 gallons at a time. I'm sure there was a little smugness I felt for spending so little compared to most everyone else. Because I don't live paycheck to paycheck, I mostly didn't notice or care about the high fuel prices.

It's a luxury for a person that doesn't live paycheck to paycheck to not care so much what the price of fuel does. At the same time, I'm sure there were people that had to eat Ramen noodles for most meals, or stopped paying their insurance premiums because the cost of fuel was so high. A good friend of mine made minimum wage delivering for Pizza Hut driving his Ford Explorer. He was barely making more than his expenses, and would have been in a better financial position if he had collected unemployment instead. Since he is an able-bodied person, he choose to contribute to the economy instead of being a liability, but high fuel prices often made him think about his choice to continue working. He had purchased the vehicle long ago when fuel was cheap, and his credit wasn't good enough to finance a different vehicle.

Even though there was some positive that came out of high fuel prices, it impacted the quality of life for many people. Another outcome of high fuel prices was massively increased fracking in the US. Whenever fuel prices rise, it spurs new production from previously unprofitable locations.

High fuel price is not a good solution to fuel scarcity or environmental problems. The ideal solution is a cheap, renewable, alternative fuel, and we will get there eventually.

 

The problem is any truly renewable fuel isn't going to be cheap when first viable to even displace a portion of the non-renewable. So the cheap, non-renewable stuff is going to win out if we wait for a market based solution. Which is further exacerbated when a foreign oil producer floods the market to harm alternate fuels and higher cost domestic supplies. Then there is a side issue of cheap gas making it harder for auto companies to sell fuel efficient cars and meeting CAFE targets.

A tax on imported petroleum high enough those higher cost protect domestic sources will also encourage alternate fuels. Take the proceeds from that tax to lessen the rates on payroll taxes, which are a flat percentage rate, and the impact on lower income earners for higher fuels will be mitigated.

It isn't a perfect solution, but it is much better than waiting for the Saudis to cut back on their production.

 

Interesting
Toyota Prius Chief Engineer Hopes To Charge Up Plug-In Version Sales

No DOA here. Definitely good. Prime seems to be another flavor of ice cream for those who don't like vanilla or chocolate.
Maybe this will pull in buyers that aren't going for a bolt, tesla, leaf, or volt.

 

I'm still not convinced. He's talking about projections and anticipations. With the hype over upcoming Tesla 3, the existing Volt with 50+, Bolt with 200+, Leaf, and a bunch of other BEVs/PHEVs in development and/or about to be released, the market appears ready to swiftly move toward electric. I'm guessing within 5 years or so, electric cars will be booming. When that happens (not if, when), the Prime will be an obsolete antique. The question becomes does it pay to buy a Prime now, only to have an antique in a few years? I think as soon as the general public realizes the benefits of a BEV and the infrastructure is sufficient, the Prime will be a dinosaur, extinct. Why would anybody drive a 10-second 0-60 mph car with a 22 mile EV range when for a similar price (?) a Tesla 3 will go much quicker and much farther.

 

But that hasn't happened yet, and doesn't look likely to happen in the next 10 years or so.

Because it won't. It will go 200 miles and charge in 45 minutes in a very small number of places while a Prime will go 700 miles and charge in 3 minutes almost anywhere.

 

I don't mean total range, I meant range on a charge. 22 vs 200 for Tesla. or 22 vs 50+ for Volt. More is always better.

 

How about range after charge depletion?

0 for Tesla.
300 for Volt.
650 for Prime.

 

i don't agree with inside ev's using gen 1 pip sales to judge prime, it's a very different car.

 

I'm already sold, basically. I'm just trying to justify the hit on a 2014 Prius by trading up to a Prime, and if I should jump now, or wait for "improvements". If I knew Toyota was going to sell a 200+ mile BEV, I'd wait. I trust Toyota's reliability, and that is the most important factor for me in choosing between Tesla, Volt, Leaf etc

 

By the way, total range is what matters - how far until you're walking. This is the reason a Model 3 isn't on my radar. I did a quick look, and about once a month I do a trip that would be either inconvenient (because of charging times) or impossible (because of range) in a Model 3. Since I keep cars a long time, that means a Model 3 would force me to rent a conventional car around 150 times in its lifetime. "Not practical" is an enormous understatement. It's also too small. I'd need a Model S to carry my stuff, and that car is way, way too expensive, and would still force me into all those rentals. Frankly, I'd rather have just about every other car on the market since most of them will at least do the job of moving me and my stuff where I want to go.

 

Does the Prime qualify for the full $7,500 Federal tax credit? If so, it should cost substantially less than any vehicle with a larger battery.

More is not always better. More is also more expensive. More is also more heavy.

It's even less appropriate to compare the Prime to a Model 3 and other BEVs. The Volt might be compared to it, but the Volt doesn't have the utility that the Prius has. Can the Volt fit 10ft lumber with the hatch closed?

 

No. Should be right around $4,500 federal.

I'll get about another $2,900 in my state, putting the top-of-the-line Prime around the cost of my 2004 when it was new.

 

base prime could come in around base lift back, after tax credits. 6 more days!

 

Not for me, for me it's EV range. I have a pickup to carry big stuff and tow my camper. The wife's commuter is a Rav4 which we use for long trips or whatever. I need a vehicle for a 110-mile round trip commute every day. 200 miles gets me a commute with a safety factor. 50+ gets me to work, almost, in good weather only I would imagine, where I could recharge for the drive home. My main shopping area is about 30 miles away, so again, 22 is not enough for Prime, forcing me to take the Rav4 or the truck. I also like to keep cars a long time, thus my concern over waiting for a BEV if the infrastructure develops quickly. I'm 99% sure it won't, and I'll grab a Prime. But I don't want to have to listen to that little voice in my head saying you should have waited...

 

If I were in your situation, I'd wait for a 200 mile BEV to vastly reduce my fuel and maintenance costs. Your RAV 4 can go the longer distances.

 

I have another vehicle for this too. The trouble is, I'd rather get 55mpg on those long trips than 28mpg. So I'm not buying a car to be a one-trick pony and that's all a BEV is. If I wanted that, I would have bought a $10,000 80 mile Leaf, which would do the same job at a lot lower cost. Sound's like you're in it for the one-trick-pony, just with a longer commute.

The BEV infrastructure would make little difference to me, since they charge too slowly. They need to charge at half a megawatt to be practical rather than annoying.

 

Everyone's uses are different as well as their long distance driving styles. For those who only drive 30-50 miles a day, the prime will reduce gasoline usage quite a bit. But with $2/gallon gas, and 10 cent per KWh electricity, the cost of driving a mile in a Prius using gas isn't that much different than using electricity.
3.3 miles / KWh in a Tesla (maybe 4.0 miles in a Prime)
at 10 (to 20) cents a KWh, $2 gets you 66 to 88 miles (or 33 to 44 miles for the more expensive electricity).
That $2 if spent on gasoline, will get you ~ 60 miles in a Prime (or 30 miles in a more traditional ICE).
So electric fuel is not always cheaper than liquid fuel.

But again, this crowd on PriusChat isn't large enough to tip the scales. I do think the prime will be a cool choice for a lot of people who are new to the technology. So what if better stuff comes out in the next 10 yrs? The prime is getting 60 mpg with a little EV thrown in there for good measure - a lot of people could live with that.

 

For YOU range may be the number one priority.
For ME and many others, the electric range is what matters.
In almost 3 1/2 years, I have not had a single trip I couldn't make in my Tesla, neither has my wife.

If you would require a second car once a month, than I agree, electric isn't for you. Luckily, there is a huge market of people that doesn't need to drive in such out of the way places, as often as you.

 

I think the primes true competitor is not bevs but other phevs. Ie the volt is a close one. Energy line and now ioniq. It's ultimate versatility. But what Toyota is doing that makes it an interesting competitor is supplementing its already amazing hybrid technology with a bigger battery that can solve more driving options and problems.

The loss of the 5th seat cuts down the ability to be versatile a little bit. And I don't know why there's an option for a big screen to run entune...

But the price will compete directly with the volt after incentives. Which car will be cheaper?