Prime destined to be doa?

I'll also add that most horses were replaced by autos in just 20 years. While 100% EV is unobtainable, I wouldn't be surprised if half of all vehicles on the road were at least plug in (or some alternative) 15 years from now.

New laws created to promote safety, such as autonomous braking, might further accelerate the transition. Insurance rates will plummet as vehicles become better at avoiding accidents. We won't be able to afford the old accident prone ones.

 

An automotive generation is 5 to 6 years.

Prius has been available since 1997. We are now on generation 4.

1997-2002
2003-2009
2010-2015
2016-

Speaking of history, a major issue rarely addressed is WHY it was decided to not expand rollout of Prius PHV beyond the initial 15 states. Sure, there are some who bring up the topic, but it's always to complain rather than actually be constructive. They absolutely refuse to acknowledge what the cost was for lithium batteries and how modest the reception was to other plug-in offerings.

Why do more in a market not ready yet? It made good business sense to just stick with the existing customer base, watching those others attempt to overcome their obstacles before joining in and continuing with their own research & development. That provides a great basis for learning, to be better off when rollout resumes.

We'll see that next step taken with Prime. In the meantime, consider the struggle Volt and Leaf are currently facing. GM's next generation offering has not taken the market by storm. In fact, it still hasn't even reached the sales rate hoped for years ago. Nissan faces growing competition and is watching sale of the outdated generation slip.

Toyota's offering will provide a modest EV range, but with competitive EV power. We think the price will be reasonably competitive too. The hybrid efficiency will be top-grade. Seating will be comfortable, for 4. Cargo will be much greater than any sedan. Tech options will be compelling. It's a good mix for this time in this market.

The hope is having studied history and responded accordingly will show favor. After all, how well are the others doing?

 

Simple because Toyota is slow rolling EV progression while force hammering FCV progression. Your argument is undercut by the huge amount of money spent on an extremely expensive technology that keeps "cost in check" by depending on taxpayer money.

Make no mistake, Toyota has doubled down on FCVs while forgoing EVs. That is the Toyota approach. It is not to slowly mature EV vehicles, it is to avoid them.

 

Why are the FCV efforts from other automakers not being acknowledged?

Why are the token EV rollouts from other automakers considered an all-in commitment?

Why is Toyota's ramping up of lithium battery cell production used in Prius being disregarded?

It certainly looks like a conclusion is being drawn based upon anecdotal evidence.

 

Gotta agree with @john1701a. Mercedes has mostly Gen 1 PiP equivalent PHEV as does BMW and Honda. And 2 of those has a single current EV for sale that's in the $40K range. And all those previous mentioned automakers have substantial FCEV investments. Except for Tesla all the rest have a single model EV and a couple of PHEVs.

Not a single one of them has the extensive hybrid lineup like Toyota has now, including SUVs.


Unsupervised!

 

Has anyone other than Toyota and Honda successfully lobbied for extensive corporate welfare and extensive exceptions to ZEV credit programs (to the point that even though all of the FCEVs are running on 67% fossil fuel, and use much more fossil fuel than their BEVs on average, they get 7 ZEV credits versus 4 for the best BEVs) for their FCEV products, though?

Toyota seems to see batteries as a buffer for the actual power source of a vehicle (whether it's to improve the efficiency of a ICE, or absorb power demand spikes and improve the efficiency of a fuel cell), rather than the primary energy storage medium, though. Ultimately, this means that any BEVs that they make - and, really, PHEVs - will be compliance vehicles. But, seeing as they lobbied for more credits for the Mirai, they need to make less PHEVs.

 

so - are you saying that (at least) all the manufacturers are doing, is CYA ? ... because they're all just doing the same minimum ? ... Ok
Even so - it sure must make one wonder - why Toyota wouldn't at least be offering up ONE ev to the public. Even Ford has thrown their hat into the ring, promising to build a 200+mile ev. Can Toyota count on Tesla to private label another EV for them (200+ mile this time) ? Looks like Tesla may be too busy ...
And that "in just 10 more years" FC thing for Toyota is an awful long shot for them to hang their hat on imo. Time will tell.
.

 

FCV efforts from other automakers? Your premise is incorrect. Those efforts are not being ignored.
Toyota is making the most noise about, and the most grandios predictions about FCV vehicles, which is one of the reasons they get the most flak about FCVs.

Token EV roll outs? Those are not considered an "all-in" commitment.

Improvements to the Prius are wonderful. However, direct relation to plug in vehicles.

It is interesting you create your own fantasies about why Toyota is doing the things it does, and then criticize others for operating on anecdotal evidence.
I am still trying to figure out how you come to the conclusions you do about why Toyota is so slow to the nationwide introduction of plugin cars, much less a full EV?

Many companies are experimenting with FCVs. Few, if any are lobbying CA to spend so much on infrastructure.
Most are doing more in terms of plugins than you indicate.

Mercedes has their B class all electric car available nationwide.
Their plugin hybrid is far improved over a PiP with 20 miles of range.

BMW's i3 Rex is in no way a "Gen 1 PiP equivalent". It has 7-8 times the range. It has drawbacks as well. It is a very different vehicle and really is in no way comparable.

It is wise to have multiple lines of research, if you have the money to handle doing each well. But to bad mouth one line of research while overly promising another is signs of bad things on the near horizon.

 

How many broken promises have we witnessed over the years?

What's wrong with waiting until there's actually something substantial can be delivered?

Notice how all the "Toyota doesn't support lithium" naysayers have suddenly vanished?

There's an obvious desire to keep the discussions going. I've noticeed the pattern of the same question being asked by several individuals over and over again.

Reality is, Toyota has invested heavily in lithium battery production as well as advancing motor & controller efficiency. They've also introduced an industry-leading heat system. So what if there isn't an EV right away to utilize that. Their other offerings will and they'll be well positioned to rollout when the market is ready.

Too bad if you don't like that approach. It's still an investment in electrification.

 

how is gm offering 50 miles for 35k?

 

By stealing batteries from LG.

The math is really hard to make that happen. 125 million EV cars on the road in 15 yrs? How many EV cars per year would have to be sold to make that happen? Or maybe 250 million is an overstatement of how many cars are actually in service. It probably is but not by much (10%? 20% max?) If suddenly, today, every car sold was an EV, you could hit the 50% number in 15 yrs.

 

Stealing? Wow, poor LG ... unable to negotiate a profitable long term contract

.

 

A. None. No auto company has ever made a promise to me.
I have seen plenty of plans changed, or goals missed.
The only thing close to a "promise" that was broken was perhaps VW's cheat software.

B. Nothing, it is the safe way and what most companies do. I just got used to Toyota playing the leader role, rather than the follower role.

C. ?? You are delusional. Nobody ever accused Toyota of not supporting lithium. That is like asking if you noticed that all the winged people have disappeared.

 

Even the blue states are increasing to 70 MPH. PA and MD just moved up to 70 MPH on the turnpikes. Thought I was seeing things. Smart move by PA, they have highest gaso tax, now make people burn more to collect more tax. OK I get it now. Very blue.

 

I remember back in the day we used to make REAL great time going up to our 2nd home;



Maybe they'll bring back open speed here again .... Of course drinking & driving was legal then too. What a combo .... doing 130mph while pounding a Heineken

.

 

LG Chem "Ticked Off" With GM For Disclosing $145/kWh Battery Cell Pricing - Video

 

Where have you been not to notice that?

This is turning unproductive. Goodbye.

 

giving a really big volume product buyer a low product price doesn't mean it's taking a loss.
.

 

I would think that a bev is orders of magnitude simpler than a hybrid phev. Wouldn't it be a relatively simple matter for Toyota to produce a bev. I think that the lack of such a vehicle isn't in and of itself proof positive that they don't see its potential. They don't see it at this point in time. The many advances in the Prime show that Toyota is serious about energy conservation and has produced an appealing car designed to interest people looking for an efficient, attractive vehicle. They see Prime as a way for new buyers to enter the world of battery powered cars.

I wonder if the investment that Toyota has made in FCV may be a response to the policy of the Japanese government in its promotion of fuel cells. Whereas hydrogen powered cars are a difficult proposition in the US, in Japan the infrastructure might be more easily created for their refueling. Consequently, I think both Honda and Toyota have invested heavily in FCV programs.

 

The big thing with making a BEV is battery packaging, which requires a very different floorpan from an ICE vehicle to get a decent amount of battery in there.