Prime destined to be doa?

That's exactly why I looked for a bench seat and an automatic transmission when I bought my truck. Then there's the 8ft bed that never has to be made.

My dad and I started restoring this monsterous '76 Buick Riviera. Strangely, there is much less space on the rear bench seat than the Prius.

 

You still go to dealers? That was one of the big draws of Tesla for me. I can't even stand to buy a Prius from a dealer. Maybe you have had better experiences than I have? There is no way I make enough contact with dealers these days to be able to rate them good or bad anymore...

 

That's the single biggest change I want Tesla to make; to end the dealership model of car sales and service. EVs will happen with or without them.

 

In reality, it's just a simple matter of recognizing how different the market is now than it was 6 years ago.

To pretend that nothing has changed since then is what?

Ugh. We've been over this literally dozens of times already... It simply made no sense spending time & resources on a platform to be replaced by a much improved next generation. Do you have any idea how much work that is in the first place? Then, you'd have to spend extra time & resources afterward to re-educate. We all know how outdated information gets used for greenwashing too. Intentionally contributing to that makes a challenging effort even harder.

The answer to the question should be obvious: PRIME

What's sad is the answer was provided way back when PHV production ended. Those who didn't believe that to be the case made up some other reason. Heck, some even shot the messenger. The catch is, that still doesn't change the answer. From Toyota's standpoint, they were well into finalizing the design. There was nothing to gain, but much to risk & waste, by saying anything. So, they didn't.

Toyota was well aware of what Prime would deliver. They gathered as much data as possible from the initial limited PHV rollout, just like they did with the Classic model. They then took what they learned and prepared to capture the hearts (and wallets) of ordinary consumers. This isn't rocket science. It's basic accounting, marketing, and economics. We'll see this Fall how well that preparation was.

In the meantime, if the same questions about why get asked yet again, I'll post a bookmark to this message. Repeating the same thing over and over is getting old.

 

Fairly often.
I enjoy test driving other electric cars so I have more first hand information to share with people.
I also like to test drive a few other large luxury vehicles from time to time to compare with the Tesla.
While doing so, I have also given a few test drives and shared some accurate information about the Model S.

Our EV club also maintains a list of sales reps that know their s#&t, to give potential EV shoppers a resource so they know who to ask for.

 

if toyota's answer to capture hearts and wallets is prime? fail.

they could have put 8 kWh in the pip by taking out the 5th seat and raising the deck. so what have they accomplished? zip, zilch, nada.

let's all bookmark this day in history, so we can look at it in 6 years and say, 'if only we knew then what we know now'.

 

Don't forget the history of using descriptors like that without any quantification...

 

I agree with your main idea, but Toyota accomplished more than nothing with the Prime. They increased the EV power and top speed so that it would stay in EV mode under more circumstances. The Prime doesn't just go further as an EV; it performs better while doing it. This couldn't be achieved by merely increasing battery capacity. It took re-engineering of the drive train to make the car more compelling.

Toyota has a few things working in their favor. One is a reputation for reliability. Another is that their Prius is so popular that it would be a relatively minor step to sell the Prime. Toyota's plug-in will get more attention than many other brands like Hyundai, Ford, VW, etc.

One question though; does a plug-in car get any extra credit in meeting certain environmental quotas, or are they considered the same as their non-plug-in counterparts? I know CARB has rules about selling a certain percentage of LEV, ULEV, PZEV, ZEV, etc. I'm also wondering how a plug-in variant is considered when factoring in fleet fuel economy? Combined vehicle fuel economy must meet a certain number, and measuring the MPG of a plug-in is tricky. My tanks have ranged from 48 MPG to 80.

 

I assume the answer is yes Toyota gets more of their CARB mandate quota with Prime...in fact I would assume that's the whole reason for Prime. I further assume that's may be why PiP1 went off the market as CARB wanted more than 6 EV miles to give credits. I don't think Toyota needs to sell too many Prime to get what they need out of it. If it ever gets to the point Toyota needs a full EV to get CA mandates, then we get a full EV from Toyota to meet CARB mandates.

 

PHEVs are TZEV under CARB, and do count to a degree for quotas in CARB states.
I'm not sure what CAFE looks at for a PHEV unser it, but it likely has a multiplier effect. One PHEV sold counts as 1.5 cars for the CAFE value.

 

all true. i'm not trying to be negative. i just don't see anything earth shattering that's going to move it mainstream. my point is simply that they built a whole new chassis, and didn't plan room for the battery. that's a big negative from my point of view, there's just no getting around it.

 

I think that was the official reason for the baby boom.

 

Agreed. It frustrates me when manufacturers miss the opportunity to optimize the strengths of EV by not being creative with the platform. The Nissan Leaf comes to mind when considering missed opportunities. Heck, the first iteration used an electric heat to water exchanger for the cabin heater! The whole advantage of electric heat is that it's instant, and they managed to select the slowest and least efficient method to provide cabin heat. They used what they already knew about conventional cars rather than exploit the strengths of an all electric platform.

It's easy for me to be critical of engineering choices in hindsight from a consumer perspective, but I have no idea what it actually takes to develop a vehicle. Most product improvements are evolutionary, not revolutionary. Take what you know and tweak a few things to progressively get better rather than start with a blank page. Even Tesla's first car started out as a modification to the Lotus chassis. You gotta start somewhere, and there will always be unsatisfied people regardless of the end product.

I've been wrong about technology so many times (mobile internet will never catch on) that I'm not even going to venture a guess on the Prime at this time.

 

same here, i'm usually wrong. that's why opinions are like you know what!

 

Or hydrogen storage tanks!

Imagine being in the planning room when the H2 engineers met with the TNGA engineers. They went - doh!

 

if only it were that fair. Instead - Toyota chose to attack CARB's plugin credits, & attempted to take away as many credits as they can from what they felt were the hydrogen 'competition' . In addition they gave a tenfold multiplier to fuel cell vehicles. No too cool. But it definitely shows who their preferred product is.

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As long as we are crying in our beer (or wine or water), here are some sobering facts:
Total light duty vehicles on the road in the US: 250 million (Yikes!!!) • Number of cars in U.S. 2014 | Statistic
Total LDV sold in the US every year: 8 million.
Total vehicles with a plug sold in the US each year: ~ 0.1 million.

The last number is going to have to get a lot bigger before they have any impact on gasoline usage or the number of stinky cars on the road or walking into a parking garage and holding your breath until you can get into your car.

If Tesla pushes that number to 500K and the rest of the industry matches it, plugged vehicles will represent 1/8 or 12.5 % of new cars sold.
It would then take 250 yrs to convert the fleet. Hopefully, the number of cars with a plug will increase to 50 % and then it will only take 250/4 = 60 yrs for the cars to be all electric on the road, or 30 yrs for 1/2.

Even if 100% of the cars sold became electric, it would still take 250/8 yrs = 30 yrs.

This transition seems like it is going to be fast, but "fast" in geological time is slow in human time.

I really hate waiting for technology to advance - yes, I have no patience - just ask my wife.

 

That's a great analysis of possible conversion rates.

Historically vehicles have largely evolved at the rate of mechanical innovation, which has a somewhat linear rate of progression. Only recently have manufacturers begun to use computers to enhance driving characteristics and provide entertainment. Vehicles might be on an accelerated rate of obsolescence, especially since EVs are new, and advances in design will likely come at a rapid pace. In the not too distant future, EVs might cost significantly less than their petrol burning counterparts.

While the adoption of technology will never happen fast enough for me, I'm leaving room to be surprised by how quickly things can change.

 

That's why I have confidence in Toyota's approach. It seems disappointing to take the perceived slower route (by offering just 8.8 kWh), but the reason for that approach in the past has been with the intent to keep cost in check. How is this time any different?

The wait for battery tech to improve takes generations. We don't have that kind of time (or patience). Keeping the pack small is how to reach more customers. After all, we've seen that business-model be extremely successful in the computer industry with respect to expanding reach of new technology, why not with the automotive industry too?

As the EV owners have stated, you want more once you've experienced it. That just plain isn't realistic for many budgets. Some people don't need mega-capacity either.

I've been recharging at work... which provides a simulation of what a 38-mile commute would deliver with the new battery-pack charged only at home. My average is around 125 MPG. What new owner wouldn't be thrilled with results like that? Isn't that what we've been looking forward to since many years ago when the idea of plugging in was limited to just aftermarket upgrades?

Upgrading from the PHV to a Prime, just commute average will climb to around 999 MPG. On long trips, I get a solid 50 MPG. At a reasonably competitive price, why wouldn't that sell at a decent volume... like half the mainstream minimum to begin with?

 

one-generation's minimum is considered 40 years. Generation's' means a minimum 80 years. That is a huge exaggeration. Traction packs that Toyota made a mere ten years ago have been vastly improved .... borh in weigh & energy, not to mention durability. So one can't honestly Factor battery development into the equation since it's moving so fast.
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