Featured PHEV Tesla Model 3

Toyota didn't build a Prius, and then put the hybrid system in to test it. They installed the system in some readily available chassis for testing first. The same goes for new engines, transmissions, suspensions, etc.

That is all this Model 3 PHEV is, a tester. Since Obrist isn't a car company, they had to use somebody else's model as a test mule for their system. We don't know their exact reasons, but they chose a Geely EC7 and a Model 3 for that purpose. Their intent is to sell their system to a car company to use in an existing or new model, not make conversions. Tesla is unlikely to be a customer.

PS: My understanding is that Tesla had originally planned to offer a PHEV until Fisker left and started a competing company.

 

So lessee...

~80% of Americans live in cities (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/18/americans-say-theres-not-much-appeal-big-city-living-why-do-so-many-us-live-there/). The vast majority of US cities are connected by interstate highways, which is where the majority of Tesla SuperChargers are.

I presume this 80% number includes suburbs, since U.S. Is Majority-Suburban—But Doesn't Define 'Suburb' - CityLab claims to 52% live in suburbs.

As for those who live in rural areas, How Far Can You Live From an Interstate Highway? - CityLab could be interpreted to say that the vast majority live within 250 miles of an interstate highway. The vast majority of Interstate highways are well-covered by Tesla SuperChargers.

A standard-range Model 3 has a nominal range of 220, IIRC, and long-range around 320.

So, perhaps 1% is low, but I reeeally doubt 95% of Americans couldn’t get to a SuperCharger and keep “riding the wave,” so to speak.

 

The problem is, the current range combined with the current charging infrastructure and easily leave even a prepared driver stranded on the side of the road. The only way to fix that is to increase the range dramatically (ideally about 1 full day of driving - 10 hours or >600 miles) or greatly expand charging infrastructure and speed.

The number of Supercharger stations in the US is something under 1,000. The number of gas stations is around 110,000. The gas stations fuel literally 20-50 times faster and the vehicles they fuel have 50% to 200% more range.

If you combine half the range with 1/100th the charging infrastructure and vastly slower charging speed, you get a situation that can easily leave people stranded or choosing not to go. This is especially true if driving in lousy conditions. On the way home from Kansas City one time in my 2004 Prius, I got a full-tank mileage of 27.5MPG (long-term average was 52MPG). The cause was a winter storm. It was snowing and blowing 50mph quartering from the front right. It's likely a Model 3 would have had a 100% to 0% range in those conditions of under 100 miles (it was under 20F outside). Since the taper charge at the end (60% and up or so) slows so markedly, many people don't supercharge to 100% even on trips because the last 20% takes so much additional time. That could easily mean a total range from 80% to stopped on the side of the road of 80 miles or less in those conditions - and it can be easily 150 miles to the next supercharger, if you are going that way at all. In my Prius, I simply stopped at one of the towns and filled up - virtually every town has a gas station and filling up takes 2 minutes so there's no real risk of running out of gas. With current EVs, the risk of running out of electricity is far higher - an unacceptable risk. If I had one, I wouldn't leave town unless I was traveling across highly-populated areas only.

 

Sure, I’d agree that’s a reasonable assumption.

 

You're missing the point.

The point is the edge cases - the outliers. And I'm talking trips, not people.

Most people will, while they own their cars, take a trip that involves a route that a current Tesla couldn't do. It might be a sudden and unexpected trip, it might be a trip in bad weather, it might be a diversion due to a closed highway or some other reason (I have specific examples of all those happening to me I could relate). It's those edge cases that are the problem, not the median. A Leaf can handle most trips for most people.

In 1982, I took a flight to the Dominican Republic. On the way back, we hit a MAJOR storm. It went from North Dakota to central Texas. We had to go around so we flew South over Houston and up to Denver. When we got to Denver, there was a 45 minute wait to land because of the storm. We had 45 minutes of fuel remaining so we went to Colorado Springs and landed, and spent more than 6 hours on the ground stuck in the plane. I was sure glad we had fuel for the diversion south, for flying up to the Springs and for sitting in the plane for 6 hours with the heat on. We might have crashed or frozen to death otherwise because the Springs airport didn't have customs at the time, and thus wouldn't let us off the plane. It's those edge cases that are the problem with current EVs.

 

Location location location.

The vast majority (80%) of Americans live in cities or suburbs, which are in the paths of the chain of Tesla SuperChargers.

EVgo says they have 750 stations nationwide, a fair percentage of which are DC quick chargers.

EV Charging Statistics – EVAdoption claims that there are 7223 DC fast-charging outlets in the US, so perhaps 2000 locations (not sure whether that includes Tesla SuperChargers).

 

Heck, rent a gas guzzler once every 5 years, if you have to...

 

So what? If you never leave where you live, you're fine with a 100 mile range, most likely.

Have to leave town? Current long-range EVs aren't close to enough, if you care about safely getting to your destination.

Thought about it. Even did it once. To say it's "inconvenient" is a massive understatement. How do you get to the rental car place? They wouldn't let me leave my car there while I was gone so I had to get a friend to give me a ride and pick me up. Then I had to wait to get the car. Then the car was a POS and I didn't like having it on the trip. Then there was a problem with the gas gauge and I almost ran out of gas. Add to that the $300 cost for 3 days, and it simply isn't worth it.

And, as I said, I've run into this over 10 times in the last 2.5 years. I could look it up. I'm probably getting closer to 20 times by now.

 

yes - if ALL drivers need to have fuel everywhere, no more than 100 miles apart (which all gas stations are not) and 600 mile trips (which all gas'ers are not) than yes - we all can't have EV's. And who is telling us that (even present day) EV's can't work for some, unless that criteria is met for all?
.

 

Then don't get one. Everyone has requirements: mandatory and optional. You've analyzed yours so live with it. I really don't care if you do or do not go EV or PHEV or sneakers. I've got mine and am quite happy.

Bob Wilson

 

They can work for some. I'd estimate under 5% from the NHTS data I analyzed.

 

As for the OP - isn't there already a bunch of plugin hybrid tech running around the landscape? Hasn't Ford released a Van / Transit plugin?
New Ford Transit and Tourneo Custom Plug-In Hybrids Deliver Zero Emission Driving with No Range Anxiety | Ford of Europe | Ford Media Center
.... and aren't they planning to release similar plugin tech on a pickup platform? .... much less 100% EV? as are others? That's great the OP article points to company hopes of getting the Tesla project plugin system into other OEM's. But that little engine won't be running a Cement truck or pulling doubles, much less a 3,500Lb trailer. Great for some countries with smaller vehicles ... but lots of countries' OEM's have working product already.
.

 

There's a lot above I want to comment on although I may loose interest before I get to it all.
@ Trollbait thanks for digging out the and reposting the info on the Obrist ICE advances. I've lost interest in ICE advances, giving up hope against hope any significant advances would ever be made again.All the detractors of ICE advancements including the thermal dynamic limitations of the technology. Still wondering if the possibility of ICE reaching 100mpg exists and if service should / could / would keep that kind of mileage over a cars lifecycle or even it's warranty. Beyond how much that package (car price) should be or for the more adventurous it TCO. I watched a youtube on wankel history just yesterday.
@ bwilson4web I was going to like your post above, but couldn't be sure the links actually entertained you. Anyway, thanks for the encouragement, but I see your work here is not over yet either since there is another hydrogen advocate here now.
@ Lee Jay I was first introduced to possibility of hydrogen fuel cell in 2002. The combined Honda FCX with home fueling station provided by Plug Power got my interest and I watched closely for at lest the next 10 years, I've learned in the mean time here at PC hydrogen is just dumb dumb dumb. Like my dream of a 100mpg ICE one day so are my hopes for a home fueling station or even a cell for furnace, water heater or car fueling. I wish you all the luck and success getting positive feedback here at PC whenever you mention hydrogen, even if only under your breath.
The fans in S Kentucky and the hordes of ICE drivers are in the house. It's getting near Soup err Bowl Sunday, after all. (blink an nod).
@mr88cet and mikefocke I respect both of your perspectives here in this thread and many others too. So many different ways of seeing the same issues from different view points. A lot like @ Marine Ray mentions above, "Good points all. Thank you. Love your conversation."
@ bisco and hill I promise not to mention systemd or the consortium here ever again. I give up a long time ago hoping any of that quagmire would produce any positive results. I just keep hoping for greater entropy (system ability to sustain constant changes) and world peace,

 

Not the right car for you in particular, then. But the majority of Americans would do just fine with a Model 3, even standard-range.

I personally suspect that the biggest concern when it comes to charging a Model 3 is not road trips, but urban infrastructure for apartment/condo dwellers. Not an issue for me in particular, since I have suburban garage to charge in, but a lot of folks don’t.

 

Tesla had more than 14k chargers at more than 1,200 locations in January of 2019 and has been adding since then. I was surprised to see that two of my previously mentioned destinations, the SC beach and the NC mountains both have relatively available superchargers now. Not as convenient as gas and EVs don't have the range to get there and back like my hybrid does but doable. It wasn't 3 years ago.

 

You've learned that from a bunch of people who don't know what they're talking about.

If by "majority" you mean "under 10%".

 

someday i may need a pee pee catheter, like my 97yr ol' dad. I'll promise to advocate driving close to 500 / 600 miles - to the land of no-where - where few ever need to go, so that i can some day advocate driving that far, passing tons of EV & gas fueling stops along the way.

.

 

Your profile says you live in warm, highly-populous places. That mean you don't know what it means to lose half your range due to the outdoor temperature being 5°F or what it means to die from hypothermia if your car runs out of energy in between cities.

I was in Tabernash Colorado when it was -41F, with no place to charge. How would that go on a current-day EV?

 

I rent cars frequently. One of my clients essentially requires that I travel in cars provided by their rental partner. So this usually means using a cab, rideshare, or the time of a family member to get to the rental location, then I drive out to the job.

I also occasionally rent for my own needs too. I do wish the process were easier, smoother & less expensive, but it's not the end of the world.

I think I rented 14 cars in 2019, everything from a Versa to a Challenger R/T.

This experience has shown me that it's entirely possible to own a short-range car and rent a long-range car for certain trips. I'm totally ready to adopt that model, awaiting supporting inventory.