Oil Change question

The problem is that we have never recovered from the last crash. The government would like us to think we have but we certainly have not.

 

Not fully yet, but getting pretty close. And I would say there are some regions that have surpassed pre crash economics, my area being one of them.

 

Well now, that depends where you look. The DOW has recovered, e.g.

If your point however is that the underlying problem of a wild-west derivatives market that lead to the crash is still present then I entirely agree with you.

 

Derivatives market wasn't the only problem. The mortgage lending practices had a lot to do with it, too.

 

The foolhardy lending required a credit bubble, fueled courtesy of the 3 trillion $ derivatives market.

The Pres tried to pass transparency legislation his first term but it was blocked by the NO party. The country will pay for it's stupidity down the road.

 

Most people that were hurt by 2008 have recovered and more that they lost, including me!

 

I don't think that's true at all, unless you are talking ONLY about those people who had a substantial amount of money saved and invested.

The real problem is NOT the people who lost money on their investments......unless maybe they lost it ALL.....but the problem IS those people who did lose everything, house, job, what little savings they had, cars, trucks etc. etc.

There are a LOT of those people who have recovered......pretty much nothing.
And the new jobs that are becoming available generally pay a lot less than what they lost.

The well to do are recovering nicely; the poor are just getting poorer.
What's new? Nothing.

 

Right on. The good jobs went to China and Mexico and the economy here will not come back until the jobs come back and they are not coming back. The American worker has to work for nothing to compete with third world countries. Their standard of living is down and it is not coming back.

 

Easy Rider,
You hit the nail on the head. The people who never lost their jobs, but took hits to their investment savings have come back for the most part. But as you correctly point out, the many, many folks who lost good paying jobs, or who's self employed business's revenue dropped off a cliff, have not recovered. There are very many who are still unemployed after 2,3 or more years (or severely underemployed ), who no longer show up in unemployed statistics because they have given up and are no longer in the calculation. Many have had to dial back there lifestyle significantly, like if one spouse with a healthy income no longer has it, they 'get by' on the other spouses income and savings. Of course these folks are not only just getting by, even if not depleting savings (if they are fortunate enough to have built that), they are no longer able to add to their retirement savings. Double wammy... austerity living now and looking forward to Social Security as being the bulk of their retirement income, as opposed to being a supplement to their IRA/401K/investment income which has already been used up to 'get by' until retirement or now only being a small supplement to the meager Soc. Sec. check.

So yes, for those who did not loose their jobs (or got a similar paying job again in less than one year), The economic horizon feels OK. But I bet those folks know friends or relatives in the other boat. The DOW and S&P... Sure large companies are making record profits and hanging on to them (not hiring). If the economy was back for the working folks, there would be enough demand from these same folks to warrant companies needing to hire more people to meet the demand. (Yes much of that labor increase would be overseas, but that is another discussion). Two thirds of of the nations economic prosperity comes from domestic spending. We are still in a strong 'lack there of' with regards to domestic spending. Catch 22: No more demand, no more jobs. No more jobs, no more demand.

Oh yeah, we are talking about oil changes... Need to schedule my wife's 10k change soon. Boy they come fast with her commute! We both appreciate that she has a commute, that we were able to buy a PiP to save gas on it AND her favorite line nowadays is: "I LOVE MY PRIUS!"

 

For many a significantly lower standard of living IS the new reality they see going forward. I hope many, if not most can get back to 'some degree' of their previous standard of living, but like Okinawa says, it does not look likely. This troubled economy certainly creates a perspective shift for me. To learn to appreciate what I do have, even that it is a lot less than we used to have. But then, we do have a PiP, so there is hope.

 

Especially the ones who owned stock in GM!

 

The US population is ~ 300 MILLION people. There will be "many" and "a lot" of anything. Those terms mean JACK when arguing about the United States. </rant>

Back to oil changes

 

This is going WAY off topic but this is IMPORTANT stuff that a lot of people don't seem to understand......or don't want to think about.

The US had pretty much successfully transitioned to a "service" economy but then found out the hard way how fragile that kind of economy IS.....especially without proper regulations in place.
We are now seeing how hugely difficult it is to recover that kind of economy once it is broken; the Catch 22 that you mentioned.

So what now ?? Almost all of the politicians are gutless cowards and none of them want to attack the real problems ........that have been caused by big money and big power........and won't really be fixed until their influence is significantly curtailed.

Every major power in the history of the world has failed......when those running the place stopped worrying about keeping the masses busy, fed and somewhat happy. EVERY LAST ONE. (Well maybe except those that were bombed out of existence in a major war.) I think the US is likely to be next. I just wonder what form the "revolution" will take. I may not live to see it.

 

Genius...you guys nailed it. Extend the mileage between oil changes to enhance retirement investments and fix the economy. (sarcasm on)

 

I have to admit, late 2008 and early 2009 was the best buying opportunity of my lifetime, well except for that little span right after 9/11. I went full in buying cheap stock from major companies and yes even though I took a bath on GM, Ford more than made up for it. And now make more in dividends than I make on my job.

 

Smart! Doing just what Buffett would do! "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

 

Getting back to oil changes (that was the topic, once upon a time, right?) I switched to synthetic in my 2002 Prius as soon as the first 5 free oil changes being offered at the time were completed. I used Mobil 1 5-30, since Toyota seemed to like that weight at the time. It did start using oil after I passed 200K, eventually up to about a quart every 1200 miles. Although the dealer REALLY wanted to change the oil for me every 3000 miles, and Toyota said 5000 to 7,500 depending on conditions, I always changed it myself (Toyota filters) and I stuck with about 10,000 between changes unless I got busy/lazy and stretched it to a few more (never more than 15,000). My baby was totaled just last week at 265k, and I'm convinced that I could have gotten another 200k out of it if that misbegotten kid in Sedona hadn't been in too much of a hurry to stay on his side of the highway (bruises, bumps, airbag/seatbelt contusions- damned lucky!)