Nissan Leaf vs Prius

I did some more poking around and found this -

WikiAnswers - Are electric cars pollution free

"Did some calculations around one specific electric car (the Zenn) and its operating CO2 footprint.

Based on a 58 km operating range and 7 kw-hr to charge for that distance and the CO2/MW-hr of the Canadian Provinces' electrical supplies as detailed in the CAPP GHG Calculation handbook there were some interesting findings. A Zenn would be responsible for 120 gm CO2/km in Alberta, 125 in NE BC and 109 in Saskatchewan. The other Provinces have more hydro and nuclear so the CO2 ownership is between 4 and 36 gm/km.

A Prius produces 100gm CO2/km if it lives up to its 4 liter/100km rating. The Zenn is almost as good as a Prius even in the Provinces with the dirtiest electricity and way better in the rest."


This site gives more detailed info -

Electric Car Mileage for Chevy Volt from Equivalent Carbon Dioxide Pollution

"The standard emissions from burning gasoline are about 20 lbs of CO2 per gallon of gasoline, irrespective of what mileage you are getting. By using the CO2 emissions to generate a kWh from the above webpage, we can convert to equivalent gallons of gasoline used. The table below shows our calculations, rounded to somewhat indicate their accuracy."

According to this physics web site, the average "coal burning" electrical plant (which is what we have the most of here on the East Coast) produces about 0.52 lbs of CO2/mile (converted)...or the equivalent of about 390 gallons of gass (for 15,000 miles).


Prius - about 6,000 lbs of CO2 in 15K miles (I usedd the above CO2 number).

All electric - about 7,800 lbs of CO2 in 15K miles.

The bottom line - Whatever the CO2 numbers are comparing the Prius, to an all electric vehicle, it's clear to me that the "effective" pollution between the two is NOT significantly different.

 

Yes, it does, but I didn't say most of my state's power doesn't come from coal. I said most of MY power is cleaner than coal.

Yes, it is. And as it continues to get cleaner, or be a smaller percentage of the power grid, EV's source of power will continue to get cleaner, automatically. I call that a great deal.

But that isn't what you said. I don't contest the statement you just made and I didn't call that 'weak'. What I called weak was this statement you made:

Specifically the last sentence. I never stated EVs are "pollution free". What I stated in reference to pollution is that EVs would have the following effects:

Once again, I did not say EVs are "pollution free" you stated I 'think' so, and I call that weak.

If you wish to twist their meaning, sure. But I don't think anyone has suggested that an EV is free of pollution in all senses. You seem to be implying 'many' have?

Well, lets compare apples to apples then. How much electricity and OIL is used to drill, transport, refine, transport again, store and then pump the gasoline into your car.
I am fine with comparing all the efficiencies from well to wheel. Let's just do it for both things we are comparing.

On a pure CO2/pollution level, you can start here: http://www.sherryboschert.com/Downloads/Emissions[9].pdf

As for transmission and distribution(T&D)? In the USA, the average loss in T&D is about 7-8%. Money wise, this represents about $19.5 Billion in 'lost' electricity.
(Energy Efficiency in the Power Grid | Renewable Energy World)

Do you have any numbers for the cost of transporting oil, refining it into gasoline, then transporting the gasoline? I have not been able to find any yet and am truly curious. This is an interesting way of looking at in.

As for efficiency in it's purest form. An electric motor tends to run about 70-80% efficiency? Lithium batteries also tend to run in that range. An ICE tends to run around 25% efficiency at the correct rpms. Perhaps, if you are lucky, 20% overall. So even if you are looking at about double on a purely 'at the vehicle only' efficiency and take the lower range of the EV efficiency and the higher range for the ICE.

Define "won't be anywhere near what it was when new" and I may take that bet. 50%, 80%, 10%??
And yes, you may be dead in the water if the battery dies on you. Just as you are dead in the water if the engine, motor, axel, brakes, steering or headlights (at night) go out on you. Your point is??

You don't go in for oil changes? Tune ups?
How much is your time worth? I like the idea of not going in for an oil change. At no additional cost for the vehicle

Right here:

I think your 'estimate' is far too narrow.

 

Ya kinda missed my point, which is, even in the "land of Lakes", more than half the electrical power comes from coal. It's much higher than that for many Eastern Coast States.

My point still remains - right now, coal burning is still pretty dirty (see my post #201) and the use of coal is not likley to be significantly reduced (% wise) for decades to come. Everything you just said falls under the heading of would have, could have, should have....or someday.

As per the numbers in my post #201, it would appear that EC cars don't put out significantly less CO2 than does the Prius. So, as far as the "polution: argument between EV and the Prius, this is pretty much a "wash" as far as I can tell.

Oh, many conveniently forget about how they get their electricity, or assume there is no pollution associated with charging up their electric vehicles. That's simply an "inconvenient truth", that "many" like to forget, or ignore.

Hello? Same goes for coal, or did you forget the fact that to mine, refine and transport coal takes energy (as well).

Sorry, I've now read no fewer than 5 articles - all from different sources - and I don't see the EV advantage when it comes to overall CO2 emissions. Maybe when we get our electricity from solar, wind or hydro (although that has problems)...then we can talk about "zero (effective) emissions".

My take on EV vs ICE polution is - with cars with ICE's, the pollution is distributed. With EV, the pollution is concentrated into a few power plants.

That would be gas as the "most efficient" form to "store energy". Look oit up, it may surprise you how efficient gas is compared to other sources of energy.

Talking about total, effective efficiency of the two processes:

Electric car - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


"For example, it is incorrect to say that an electric vehicle charged each night from a gasoline powered generator is more efficient than a gasoline powered vehicle.

An electric car's efficiency is affected by its battery charging and discharging efficiencies, which ranges from 70% to 85%, and its engine and braking system. The electricity generating system in the US loses 9.5% of the power transmitted between the power station and the socket, and the power stations are 33% efficient in turning the calorific value of fuel at the power station to electrical power.[22] Overall this results in an efficiency of 20% to 25% from fuel into the power station, to power into the motor of the grid-charged EV, comparable or slightly better than the average 20% efficiency of gasoline-powered vehicles in urban driving, though worse than the about 45 % of modern Diesel engines running under optimal conditions (e.g. on motorways).

Production and [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_conversion"]conversion[/ame] electric cars typically use 10 to 23 kW·h/100 km (0.17 to 0.37 kW·h/mi).[19][23] Approximately 20% of this power consumption is due to [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency"]inefficiencies[/ame] in charging the batteries. Tesla Motors indicates that the vehicle efficiency (including charging inefficiencies) of their lithium-ion battery powered vehicle is 12.7 kW·h/100 km (0.21 kW·h/mi) and the well-to-wheels efficiency (assuming the electricity is generated from natural gas) is 24.4 kW·h/100 km (0.39 kW·h/mi).[24] The US fleet average of 10 l/100 km (24 mpg-US) of gasoline is equivalent to 96 kW·h/100 km (1.58 kW·h/mi), and the [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Insight"]Honda Insight[/ame] uses 32 kW·h/100 km (0.52 kW·h/mi) (assuming 9.6 kW·h per liter of gasoline).
The greater efficiency of electric vehicles is primarily because most energy in a gasoline-powered vehicle is released as waste heat. With an engine getting only 20% [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_efficiency"]thermal efficiency[/ame], a gasoline-powered vehicle using 96 kW·h/100 km of energy is only using 19.2 kW·h/100 km for motion.
The waste heat generated by an ICE is frequently put to beneficial use by heating the vehicle interior. Electric vehicles generate very little waste heat and resistance electric heat may have to be used to heat the interior of the vehicle if heat generated from battery charging/discharging can not be used to heat the interior. Electric vehicles used in cold weather will show increased energy consumption and decreased range on a single charge."

Really? I think quite a few buyers could fall into these categories That said, there are only about 100K Prii sold in this country every year, and I suspect that the initial appeal/demand for the Leaf will be less than this. So whether the numbers sold are 10K, or 100K...it's still small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.

When charging up your EV takes minutes, and can be done all over, or with the same convenience as filling up your car...then, IMO, EV cars will become more main stream. Until then, they will occupy a niche market.

 

To summarize, as it relates to my G3 Prius, and MY driving habits:

(1) The overall (effective) CO2 emissions between EV and the Prius are comparable. I see no advantage of the EV (unless, or until, my local power company converst over to wind/solar, etc). I'm not holding my breadth for that to happen. Wash.

(2) At current gas prices (and electric utility rates), the EV enjoys about a factor of 1.5-2.0X lower energy cost/mile than my Prius. Advantage, EV. For me, the savings would be about $900/year.

(3) The range and/or convenience restrictions of EV, for me, make it less of an attractive solution than my G3. Advantage, Prius.

(4) The battery life, and/or depletion of the battery with age, is a future $$ concern with any EV. If my G3 battery degrades (which it will), I can still use my car as normal. With the EV, I could be greatly restricted in it's use, and in for an expensive battery replacement. Yes, the battery on the Prius would also be expensive to replace...but the point is, on the Prius I would bnot be forced into replacing, but on the EV, it may be critical. Advantage Prius.

 

A typical EV will have at lease 10X the battery capacity of any hybrid, so the replacement or repair cost of the EV battery will be 10X the hybrid battery form the same supply source either OEM, salvage or rebuilder.

Due to the charging and discharging characteristic nature of EV usage, especially quick charging in less than 1 hour, the life expectancy of the EV battery will be much shorter. The replacement is eminent for any EV battery.

 

i drive an inefficient short range, low speed EV. i can post real world #'s that show my Zenn's cost per mile is more like 4 X better. i dont know of anywhere in town where i can get gas free. there is a dozen places in town i can plug in for free though including my employer. ( i guilt-tripped them into allowing me to do so)

ya know how much i spent on oil changes last year?

Prius $212 (two cars)
Zenn ZERO

how about filters? air/engine

Prius $88
Zenn ZERO

should i go on?

oh, i forgot

Windshield wiper fluid
Prius ZERO
Zenn $3.99 (still have 3/4th of a bottle and the SPM will need it soon)

btw the term "current gas prices" has become a fast moving target of late.

i filled up my 2010 6 days ago at $2.879... filled up SPM yesterday at $2.999. we still a long way from Memorial Day. i dont think the price hikes are done yet

 

As I said, my calculations, based on my electrical rates where i live, and my driving habits, etc...indicate that I should NOT expect to reduce my energy costs (relative to my G3) by more than a factor of 2X. That number is still significant, so I'm not down-playing a factor of 2X reduction. But there's simply no way the energy savings (where I live) would add up to 3X or even 4X.

As far as maintenance costs for the EV...get back to me when the Leaf's battery capacity is only 50% of what it was when new (and you can only drive a fraction of what you use to be able to drive when new)...forcing you to get a new battery for say, $4K. EVERYTHING revolves around the health of the battery in a EV...and batteries ain't cheap.

Misc costs for oil and filters for my G3 are in "the noise". Life would be sweet, if all I had to worry about was a few hundred dollars a year in oil/filter costs...if a few hundred dollars really bothered me, I would do what I use to do with all my other cars: I would change my own oil/filter. It's not rocket science, and I did it for 3-4 decades.

RE: Price of gas fluctuates.

Yes, it does, and so do utility rates where I live...although utility rates can remain flat for several years, they then are allowed (by law) to climb as much as 30%-40% to compensate for the power company's cost for coal, or, to pay back the required new "scrubber" used to reduce emissions, and required by the EPA. Costs gets passed along to the consumer, and don't think for a minute that electric rates (where I live) are stagnant...because they're not.

But the bottom line is - If everyone had a Leaf, putting HUGE demands on our electrical system, there is absolutley no doubt that utility companies would be forced into upgrading their infrastructure and building more power plants...and guess where some of the money to pay for this is going to come from? That's right, the consumer.

 

You're wrong about needing more power plants for a large number of EV's, as the Leaf has "delayed" charging start capabilities, and can be scheduled to start charging at 1AM or 2AM, when there is very little demand for electricity, thereby "normalizing" the use of power plants that are normally underutilized late at night, but still must be kept online, for commercial customers or sudden demand.

There have been numerous studies done on the power grid, that show virtually no impact on existing infrastructure with a large EV deployment, in fact with "V2G" technology, and a large enough EV penetration, the EV's can actually provide capacity to the grid, on a sudden demand spike, which can actually assist the power utilities from having to spin up additional generation capacity on short notice.

 

another poll suggestion. what will be the price of the battery pack replacement 5 years from now?

i am betting the price will be down considerably from where it is now. the more EV's there are out there, the more competition will arise for all things EV, including batteries, aftermarket power packs, etc. competition and volume will drive the prices down.

and we really dont know where gas prices will be. the US Army (all 2nd hand rumours here!!) has a report that oil shortages expected approximately 2015 will create a national security risk. is it true?? what does the Army know that the rest of us dont? or is it, others know and are not willing to talk?? who knows, could be nothing but smoke. would not be the first time the Military flat out lied to get what they wanted

as far as loading the grid with EV's. there has been numerous studies in the Northwest (a big factor in our being picked for the EV highway and initial Leaf launch) showing that we could easily take on a few million EV's if charged off peak.

the hydroelectric system we have now, provides too much power at times for us to handle OR SELL. sometimes we have to let water go to prevent damage to the dam. what we end up doing is burning a TON of power to pump the water let thru the dam to a holding pond several hundred vertical feet higher. the water is let go during drier periods when the additional flow can be done without damage downstream. this is greater than a 100 to 1 power loss ratio, but still better than nothing.

what it boils down to, is hydro does not cover peak demand, but at the same time we cannot throttle down enough during off peak demand either, essentially making the system less than 100% efficient.

EV's all charged at night could be used as holding cells for emergency power. granted there will be a loss, but 10% is way better than 95+%

 

You sir, are quite naive. No, I'm not wrong.

It's been shown that it mainly depends upong when people re-charge, and human nature being what it is....oh, and this study ONLY assumes 25% market penetration. As I said, if "everyone" had a EV, then the situation is far worse than what this study shows.

What’s the impact of plug-in hybrids on the power grid? It depends. | Alternative Energy Info


"It depends on when people are going to recharge their cars, basically. A new study from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) says that a move to plug-ins could require either a bunch of new power generation resources or maybe none at all – everything depends on when most people are going to recharge their cars.

While some assessments that there there will be no impact make assumptions that owners will charge their cars only at night, Stan Hadley, of ORNL’s Cooling, Heating and Power Technologies Program feels this is unrealistic. ”That assumption doesn’t necessarily take into account human nature,” said Hadley, who led the study. “Consumers’ inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. Utilities will need to create incentives to encourage people to wait. There are also technologies such as ’smart’ chargers that know the price of power, the demands on the system and the time when the car will be needed next to optimize charging for both the owner and the utility that can help too.
ORNL ran several scenarios in their study, using a assumed market penetration of 25% for plug-in hybrids by 2020. The worst case scenario assumed that all plug-in owners would charge their cars at 5 PM – with this scenario up to 160 new large power plants would be needed to supply the extra electricity. The best case scenario assumed that everyone charged their cars after 10 PM – that’s when the load on the electrical system is at its low and the wholesale price for electricity is at its cheapest. In this scenario, no additional power generation would be needed. While neither scenario is realistic, the ORNL study concludes that with incentives and tools such as smart charges, the need for additional power capability can be minimized.”


While NOT mentioned in this study, I'd be willing to bet $$ that any additional demand on the already over-burdened electrical grid on the East Coast would require new infrastructure and new power plants - irrespective of when people re-charged their EV's. I have zero doubt about that.

 

Honest question - What has been the price trend/history for the Prius battery over the past 10 years? There are now more than 1 million Prii... has the battery price (substantially) gone down? I'll bet it hasn't.

The arguement that just because there are more EV's, battery prices will go down, is NOT accurate. There are only a few places in the entire world that can mine Lithium (watch 60 Minutes)...so, unless there is a Litium substitute (which then would require extensive eval and testing)...as there are more EV's, there will also be much greater demand for the raw elements that go into the battery. If there was no demand for diamond, or you could get them from any place, the cost would not be where it is today. You may view the glass as half full, I, on the other hand would view added demand for the raw materials as a economic force that would drive up (not down) the cost .

...and maybe the new oil wells that Obama just authorized off the East Coast will yield new oil sources? Nobody knows. But what we do know is - that as long as people can make good profit from oil, there will be new exporation for the "black gold".

See the Oakridge study (my post above). May work where you live, but lets face it, where you live is not highly populated. The problem will be along the NE corridor, where most people in this country live, and the greatest electrical demands can be found.

 

who is naive??

u imply that the east coast is already over-burdened?? well that also implies that your demand is steady which its not and that there is no excess power generation capacity at any time which would be a pretty naive statement to make

 

Not directed at you.

 

Of course there is excess capacity. But when most of the East Coast power grid was designed, with estimated peak loads...the additional power demands of millions of EV's was not in the equation. As any engineer will tell you, if your margin of error (ie excess capacity) goes away, you are living on the edge of disaster.

 

I live on this power hungry east coast you keep claiming does not have enough electricity. With new, low power consumption products and cheaper power generation (photovoltaic and wind turbine, and water turbines) power is not going to a dramatic problem as you like to over dramatize. I live in a (silver LEED certified)building with over 1000 people, do you know what I pay for electricity (I have over 2k square feet) $25 in the summer and nothing in the winter ( pay almost nothing for heat thanks to an R- value of 50, heat exchanger and cogeneration).

It's not that hard for a municipality to pass a green law that requires some sort of power generation on site so no new power plants will have to be built.

 

bigdog1234, you assume NOTHING will change. I disagree.

California already has "time of day" metering, and I fully expect that to "move east", as all west coast trends do. With "time of day" metering, there WILL be financial incentives for EV users to set their Leafs to "delay charge" and start during the off peak time, to save money. The Leaf already has this technology built in, and is ready for this.

You cannot assume nothing is going to change with the adoption of EVs.
Has nothing changed with the adoption of gasoline vehicles? hardly.

 

from about $5500 to the current $2200 price.

amen to that and i guess this conversation would be over if i had even the slightest notion that Li would be the primary chemistry used 5 years from now.

even the best of guesses says we are lucky to get a 5-10 year supply from it. 3-5 seems to be the consensus

all the more reason why we need to decentralize power generation, mandate solar on EVERY new industrial and commercial building and push a time table to outfit existing buildings.

sure, its only going to provide a fraction of the need, but every fraction counts and the greater the need, the stronger the will.

if some company thinks they can make billions on solar, u can be assured that they will sink the big investment dollars into figuring out a way to make a better product to get a one up on a fast growing market.

 

This thread has gone off topic.
I was hoping to hear some juicy technical details on Leaf vs Prius.

 

But that is not the whole story. As you can imagine, 10 years ago there were no used Prius batteries on the market.
Now you can buy used batteries from $400 up and remanufactured batteries from $1500, so the 60% price decrease in new batteries does not tell the whole tale. Taking used batteries into consideration, there has been a 90% price decrease in available batteries.

Prius battery, eBay Motors, Charging Starting Systems. Great deals on eBay!

If we assume that like Prius, the Leaf is totalled more frequently that the battery fails, soon there will be a used Leaf battery market that does not exist today.

 

Brace for change then should think and be more excited for the Honda Clarity.