New Prius v Sales Already Clobbered Volt

Not every Volt shopper is looking for a greatly fuel efficient vehicle. They want an EV for what ever reason, and the current BEVs are found wanting on some front. The Leaf and iMiEV can be bought for less, but their range may not work for the individual. BEVs with longer range cost much more than the Volt, if they are available.

It's one of the reasons why comparing the sales of the Volt and the Prius v really doesn't tell us anything about either car. One is a coupe-esque four door and the other a wagon in a larger segment. They'll attract different buyers without one even having a plug or not.

One month of Explorer sales from last year simply biotch slapped the Prius v total 2011 sales. Perhaps Toyota should enlarge the v and drop the traction battery in order to compete with Explorer.

 

First off, our gov. calls Volt a Plug-in Hybrid -

2011–12 Chevy Volt

What happened to Volt Jan '11 with 603 sales? Down 60% from Dec. '11

January 2012 Dashboard | Hybrid Cars

Volt chassis is like a coupe, but with 4 doors and 1 less rear seat. I do not know if it's classified as a family sedan, but it should not be. Back seat room is like a Honda Insight.

Prius v and Volt are pretty much incomparable, so, not sure why this thread exists.

Hang out until April 1st for March's first sales numbers for Prius Plug-in vs. Volt, then enjoy the show ....

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Trollbait "One month of Explorer sales from last year simply biotch slapped the Prius v total 2011 sales. Perhaps Toyota should enlarge the v and drop the traction battery in order to compete with Explorer."

Oh no, there's already a Mazda 5 and Jetta Sportwagen 5 cylinder covering that. Prius v - stay the same.

 

Little off topic, but an example of what Prius liftback can do....

I've got a whopping 10 miles into this tank, 14 MPH average, 3.6 miles longest trip one way. Left for Fremont in 64 F weather last night, car stone cold, about 33 MPG on gage (filled up day before) ...

by the time back home from 3.6 mi to gym, 1 hour sit for car and 3.6 home, the gage clawed it's way up to 45.4 MPG. Putting in 6% gage error, that's ..



42.7 MPG ... on a cold car, 3.6 mile trip, all city with 10+ red lights in between.....

What other 3,000 lb. gas burning car could get 10 less MPGs, 33 MPGs under same conditions? Turbo diesel? Betchya that Ford Focus (SE?) would fall to 28 MPG under same conditions.

Prius is great fuel economy, still the best. The price - higher cost and hybrid battery to deal with in 10 years, give or take.

 

I'm guessing you don't like the Plugin Prius either since the consumer price is only $2,500 less than the Volt after tax credits and it hasn't had any recorded sales yet.

 

Probably the same thing that happened to Nissan LEAF sales -- some sales that could have been done in January 2012 were pulled forward into November and December 2011 so the owners could claim the tax credit on their 2011 taxes.

Also, I assume some sales were lost or delayed due to all of the media coverage around the crash test battery fire investigation.

There will likely be a surge of PiP sales due to pent up demand for the first few months although I don't know if there will be any supply constraints due to any ramp up in production.

 

Buyer has to pay up front. Tax credits don't apply until you file taxes. Everyone in CA gets $7,500 fed, 2.5k state refund due to the Volt purchase?

but, it's $33k + TTL for PiP ... or $40k + TTL Volt at buy time

 

The 2012 PiP and recent production 2012 Volt only qualify for a $1,500 California state rebate (as an all-electric the LEAF gets $2,500).

 

Viable means no subsidy dependency, being a self-sustaining profitable product for on-going business.

PHV clearly aims at being viable by keeping the battery-pack small (to keep price in check and not sacrifice interior space) while retaining all aspects of being a super-efficient hybrid even after depletion.

Volt doesn't even remotely fit into that same category.
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The proposed term in the SAE standard is EREV. I don't think I've seen anyone try to call it a ERHV. (I did see REEV being discussed as an alternative).

Its not in the standard, because the last time SAE updated J1715 (Hybrid Terminology standard) in 2008, there was not enough understanding of the EREV concept and it was not introduced early enough (with enough support I'd guess) to make the standard at that time.

Many of the other terms in existing standard

Serial Hybrid
Parallel Hybrid

Are all about what drives the wheels and how, not just about the fuel source used.

 

I don't dislike the PIP or the Volt. I just don't think the Volt is a viable product. (I think you meant $2,500, not $25k).

I suspect that the PIP will be a viable product. It has much in common with the liftback Prius and therefore has the benefit of an established parts and production line, proven and time tested technology and over 10 years of field study and failure analysis.

I see the PIP as evolutionary, not revolutionary. I see the Volt as an evolutionary dead end. IOW, not viable.

 

Sure, it's clear that the PiP is looking for the sweet spot in the Price/Battery curve and that's a good thing. That's how I buy my hard drive, dram, and CPU capabilities when looking for a new computer. Others buy higher-end machines for gaming or other purposes.

However, I don't think the Volt-like EREV design center is going away. Battery prices and energy/power densities are on track for good improvements during the next decade. I expect the consumer price of a "2012 Volt" will hold steady while subsidies decline through battery improvements and various tweaks and cost optimizations by the end of the decade.

Before then, I expect Lexus and other premium auto brands to introduce EREV plugin hybrids. Similarly, the PiP will slowly scale up the battery to a range of 20-25 miles (EPA). Between that and increasing gas prices in the coming years I think the Volt and EREVs like it have a very viable outlook. The real non-viable product is going to be the conventional gasoline car except on the very high and low ends of the market.

 

I don't either. I think it will remain a niche though. And many of us wonder what the mainstream offering will be.

The product gap between Cruze & Volt is massive. What the heck will the typical consumer purchase between now and the end of the decade?
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Guess you don't understand the difference between business as usual and innovation. Viable means "capable of growing or developing normally" or "having a reasonable chance of succeeding" -- it does not have to imply it a market success.

I'll related it back tot he Prius so you can see innovation in a comfortable context. The Prius introduced in the US in Aug 2001, at a base price of $19995. The average sale price of a car in 2001 was, $21,605. Sales were 6K units.

Base price of a 2011 Volt, 40280. Considering the 7500 tax credit (which is really factored into the price by most people) net price is $32,780. The 2012 was $1005 less, at a net of 31780. Average price of a car in 2011 was just over 33K.. Sales were 7500+ units.

Both the Prius introduction, and the Volt, were at about the market average price with small sales.

When introducing a new product the companies often have to balance the higher initial costs with market conditions. Setting prices just around the average is normal for any product that wants to compete on a dimension other than price (must start low) or luxury-branding (must be high). I think blew it in the first year pricing (< 40K even a little would have been better marketing even if it cost them 150K in sales revenue it would have been worth the loss to avoid the marketing firestorm it caused.), but they were not far from average and so

You are welcome to your views on what will be a success and what will flop, but the data to date is insufficient from which to draw a conclusion.

Now let me add why do I think it is more than Viable and likely successful innovation.

Its a great car to drive, with power and still efficient, and for many it will be, in the long run, very cost efficient even at its currently high price. American's don't like too many compromises and the volt does not require many. It may not be efficient on gas a the Prius, but its 40mpg on the highway is better than all but a handful of models.. and that is its backup generator. BEVs are more fuel efficient overall, and the range of them will limit the potential. The EREV design does not the range limit and its full EV power is good. Its ease of use, maintenance and "fueling" will eventually be seen as advantages.

Will it ever dominate the market. No.. not even the next generation will be a massive seller like the Prius. For the Prius it took 3 generations to become a top-20 seller. However, the core technology and design concepts of the EREV will likely continue and morph into many other platforms much like the HSD did for Toyota.

 

That's easy to estimate. An ICE vehicle as always. Probably a A Pickup truck or an SUV. If we are very lucky the Hybrid/EV market may become 5-10% of the total.

 

Big difference here, Toyota sales were to consumers, not builtin rebate... and average 1,000 vehicles a month and might have been more, but ... the rest of vehicles were sold in other countries...

I think the Volt is a very good vehicle for some unigue commuting needs. And it is a new technology which does likely will appeal to early guinea pigs....

I hope the technology continues. I think the car is great, especially coming from GM. I have seen 1st hand how they can not handle success in new technology so the volt is actually doing well considering the hurdles it faces, not to mention the tag being tossed as the car of Obama (truly unfortunate).

 

If you're smart, you can deduct tax credits ahead of time before your buy your car. Just stop fed withholdings until you rack up $7.5k of non-payments, then buy your car before the end of the year. Done right you could have the $7.5k LONG before you actually buy the car depending on how much federal taxes you pay.

But most people don't bother adjusting their withholdings and let the fed borrow the money until they file their tax returns.

 

I do understand the difference. Market success is a necessity to becoming and remaining a viable product. Any unprofitable product can remain on the market by the use of subsidies. But life support does not make a product viable. Do you really think that GM is going to keep producing a niche vehicle that loses money?

The Prius struggled at first, no doubt about it. When introduced in the USA, the Prius' innovative HSD system was a totally new and difficult concept. The individual percepts that go into understanding that concept were also poorly described (or misrepresented) in the media and raised questions. I remember reading that the "brakes" generated electricity, that firemen would be electricuted when using a "jaws of life," the fabled "$5k battery" would have a short lifespan and predictions of massive "battery pollution" problems. The fact that gas was much cheaper also meant that the "hybrid premium" had an unacceptably long recovery time. Understandably, market acceptance was slow.

But times have changed. The Prius has proven itself. Its HSD system has matured and the HSD concept is now much better understood. The battery is presumed to be reliable, the "hybrid premium" is lower (and cost-recovery times are acceptably short) and enviable fuel efficiency is well documented. Fuel prices are at levels where fuel savings alone will significanly offset the payment for a new (or used) Prius. With literally millions of satisfied users and the Prius HSD in its third (or fourth) generation, the Prius can withstand competition from new entries like the Leaf and the Volt. I recently sold a 2009 Prius and had multiple full price offers from people desperate to get 48 - 50 mpgs.

The Volt has to try to survive in this very competitive market. What does it offer to distinguish itself from the competition? A lengthy EV mode. Anything else? Government subsidies. Sure, there are people who only want to "buy American" and some who have a 15-30 mile commute and cheap electricity. But who else is going to buy it?

Given a choice, I think people will prefer a Prius vee with its greater room, better fuel efficiency and lower purchase price.

 

Why in the world would you think killing the volt would increase GM's profits? Even with the losses on the first generation prius, having it brought buyers into toyota show rooms. Toyota was more profitable in the long run, by taking the short term losses. Fixed costs have been sunk in the volt. Cancelling it now can only hurt gm. This is opposite of the hummer, where cutting it off helped the company. They cut off some very negative perception that would be contiuing to hurt them now that gas prices are rising again.

The prius v is just a station wagon version of the prius. Even if they sell the same number of prius+prius v, toyota makes more money because its likely they have a higher profit margin. The prius c is another story, I expect it to grow the market, but toyota loses if all they do is convert prius liftback to prius c sales. The prius phv is a necessary product for toyota, they lose marketing clout if they don't produce them.

 

When Prius got the $3,150 tax credit, it was for 60,000 units. Volt would be getting $7,500 for 200,000 units.

After the tax credit finished, Prius did not have to lower the MSRP. Volt would have to drop MSRP by 25%.

 

You nailed it. With Prius or other HSD hybrids or Ford hybrids, you are not buying a vehicle with two propulsion systems. You are buying a vehicle that utilizes synergy between the two propulsion systems as one.

Prius PHV maintains that synergy with more EV biased.