Featured Nearly Half of [US] Shoppers See Public Charging as an EV Dealbreaker

Maybe throw in some for good measure.

 

in my current situation, commuter car is the best application for a bev.
i can understand peoples concerns about long range and evse stations, etc. (justified or not)
but i can't see the commuter car objection, it seems the perfect application, unless you don't have home charging available.

 

That's why the and

 

It is, if you drive less than 30 miles a day and only plug in at home every night.
Not knocking it for that reason, but its the price tag and depreciation that comes with it that makes the alternative options better for your wallet. Bottom line at the end of the day, price and convenience is what sells.

Does anyone here truly believe there will be a mass adoption of EVs by 2030 without those two factors being met first? Serious question

 

Can’t answer your question without a definition of ‘mass adoption’.
As well as what factors? You mention price, depreciation, and convenience. Which two factors are you talking about?

 

i don't think anyone can put a timeline on it, but there is consistent growth. prices will keep falling as tech improves. alternative energy will continue to grow. the nacs charging standard is a big incentive for tesla to increase station growth and other companies to invest since all cars will be able to charge everywhere eventually.

 

Sales growth of plug ins have been faster than hybrids.

 

Perfect question for a stock gambler.

Bob Wilson

 

Virtually all homes in my region have 240V. A typically electric drier or water heat circuit is good for 5.76 kW, an electric range circuit good for 9.6 kW. It is relatively easy to add another of similar size. I did so myself last summer, adding a 7.68kW circuit for a future plug-in, piggybacked on the permit and inspection of an unrelated electrical project. No one with a plug-in battery larger than the original Nissan Leaf limits themselves to just a common 120V circuit for recharging.

Nope. Homes generally consume more energy than does personal transportation, so going all-EV would less than double electric needs. And most EV charging can/will be scheduled for the overnight low demand periods, when demand is far below capacity, saving on transmission and distribution upgrades.

Hardly anyone believes the EV transition can happen overnight, nevermind the demands of the ardent greenies. It will take a long time, too long, so the grid will have plenty to time to keep up.

Beware that even gassers suffer significantly reduced range in adverse weather.

Maybe where you always drive, but not out where I frequently like to travel. Even gassers need to be mindful of fuel level and availability. Just a few samples from my travel zone:

 

I know this post is a bit old, but I was on a long trip in my Tesla.

Lets estimate how much grid capacity would be needed for everyone to drive an EV.

Some basic assumptions:
average home uses 10,000 kwh per year
Residential electricity is ~20% of grid usage
Typical EV gets 4 mile/kwh...some bigger ones might be only 3 m/kwh
Average miles per year is about 12,000/yr, so I'll use 10K and 15K examples
(If you disagree with any of these numbers just make up something and do the math or google it)

For one car per household going 10k/15K at 4 m/kwh that would be:
10k/4 or 2500 kwh (low end)
15k/3 or 5000 kwh (high end)
This is a 25% increase to 50% increase in household usage.

Multiply by 20% to get the overall grid increase
So we get 5% to 10% net increase for the grid.

This is for one car per household. The average is a bit over 2 cars per household, so double that.
And, of course there are some commercial vehicle too, but these are ~10% of the whole US fleet.
But some of them use lots of fuel so lets just triple the load on the grid.
We now are up to 15% to 30% increase.
A long way from your 200% increase based on "tripling"

Mike

 

Not everyone is going to 2 EVs per household. Or even plug-ins. So we have time. Now build the NUKEs and get rid of the coal. But boy the capital costs.

 

My ev is more convent. I can turn on the air conditioning or heat even in closed garages through an app. Think about a 200+ mile range ev not some short range stuff that was designed and put out over a decade ago. If you average 40 miles a day and want the SOC to stay between 10% and 80%, then a 240 mile range ev is only going to need charging every 4 days, and you can charge to 100% if weather is going to be bad or you need more range for the day. Plugging in is much easier than going to a gas station. For long trips, my total time increases as I need fast dc chargers but the amount of time stopped in a year is much much less. YMMV.

In the nearly 5 years I have owned the tesla model 3, it has depreciated less than my 2010 gen III prius in a similar time period. Your mileage may very. More competition and lower prices are likely in 2030, but I don't expect mass adoption until 2040. Other car in my home is my partners gas powered SUV, but she only commutes about 2 miles to work, and bikes when the weather is nice.

 

True and since people will be charging their cars at night solar won't be charging it but at least we won't be adding to the load during the peak hours which are Monday to Friday from 1:00 to 6:00 p.m. . Power companies buy electricity from foreign areas at high prices during those peak hours. So charging cars at night should be fine because it'll be load balancing

 

No but I was doing a calculation based on the comment that the grid load would triple if everyone drove an EV.

Mike

 

I love all the red herrings that people who fear Electric cars throw out.
Instead of crying "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" as Chicken Little did, the cry is "the grid is falling the grid is falling!" And it's based on the ridiculous notion that electric cars will take over - overnight.
Well here's a ridiculous thought for ridiculous thinkers.
Every gallon of gasoline contains over 30kWh of energy. diesel contains (rounding) 20% more.
So that 10 gallons of toxic carcinogenic air polluting fluid you pumped into your car could easily represent over 300kWh of electricity. At 300kWh of ev juice ... you might drive easily over 1,200 miles. So you take a bunch of gassers off the road and you can add even more electric cars.

But of course the cry over "the grid is falling" .... if it were real .... rather than disingenuous - the cry would be over all those central air conditioned homes being built - which easily use as much or more than charging on 240V every night. "Oh no! They are building more homes with central air!" Doesn't such fake dread sound ridiculous? So admit it. Change to new technology causes fear in many people. Even relatively slow change.

.

 

Not just more homes. Way bigger homes.

 

you'll be dragging my central air out of my cold dead hands

 

With central air, it may be awhile before we know you're dead.

 

great, mrs. b can keep collecting my government checks

 

She just need a freezer for that. Energy Star one will add less to the grid.