Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

Probably, and I agree that this could happen by the time I replace my Prime. Note that I kept my Previous two cars for 13 and 14 years, and I still own an '88. However, I expect to replace my Prime in 8-13 years.

 

lol. When we get 450 miles it will be 600, etc. Let's work some numbers using the model 3. I don't think you will be able to shove 450 miles worth of batteries in a smaller or cheaper car and sell any.

Assume in 5 years battery prices are 40% less and they are 20% smaller.

Model 3 will be out of tax credits, so the price needs to drop on the basic model. Let's assume that they put the smaller less expensive and lighter battery in that also makes 220 miles of range. I'll also assume tesla is not insane and wants to make money, so they will charge for the bigger upgrade. Currently they charge $9K for 90 extra miles. Plug in your own assumptions.

Mine are that the battery for 220 miles will drop about $4000 after 20% margin. Other parts will drop to. Lets say they drop the base price to $29K but will extract a margin on the other side. Maybe a dual motor will make it more efficient and will be a $3000 option then and required for a big pack like it is now. They could probably make a dual motor 386 mile car with the same battery footprint as the extended range today. Say they charge $15K for the bigger pack plus require the $3000 dual motor, that makes it $47K for a dual motor long range bev. Pretty sweet. I doubt they would sell it for less. Now we push into rarified air. Do they compromise the hot seller 220 mile vehicle to make it have enough room for 450 miles? Or do they do a lot of different things so its got a slightly different chasis (more bucks). Battery is also a lot heavier now than the 220 mile car (just 90 miles adds 120 kg today). My guess is they would have to sell it for $60K to make money on a 450 mile option. My guess is those asking for 500 mile range today, will not be willing to pay.

There is a simpler solution to their "requirements", which is a phev. All we have to do is look at the i3 or volt or even prius prime. If you "think" you need the range Adding an engine and gas tank is going to be a lot less. Even a volt doesn't use much gas in a year. On the i3 adding the rex and gas tank is $4000. How much gasoline would you use in a phev with 150 mile electrical range. Lets say its more expensive than the bmw option. To go from 220 mile bev to 450 miles might cost as much as the 220 mile bev. Or say you could drop to 150 mile bev and a hybrid (PHEV) for $5K more. I'm sure some would buy the high mile bev, but it won't be a volume seller.

 

That's why I keep saying batteries have to improve by a factor of 5 or so. 1000Wh/kg and $30/kWh and you've got a shot at a practical BEV for all applications.

And that's why I have a Prime and why I've long (since about 2000) advocated for a so-called "P40" car - a car with 40 miles of battery-only range and a second source to provide nothing but average power (like 15kW) for longer range trips. Cars have a somewhat unique characteristic that lends itself to a hybrid approach - the average power is usually about 1/5th to 1/20th of the peak power. That large ratio makes it useful to use one source for peak power (batteries are really good at that, and ultracapacitors are even better), and one source for average power (ICE, FC, etc.).

 

Surely you guys have to realize that this guy has everything figured out. We need to be bringing all of our problems to him.

 

Now now ... Everyone's entitled to their opinion - & everyone's entitled to give it, weather it's based on sincerity or just based on one's combative personality - it doesn't really matter. This was put quite eloquently in an article published recently. Let me see if I can find it;

Meah 1st the sumnary - Elon Musk was recently asked by the media about how troubling it is - when/if people step out of line for the model 3. They speculate around 60k have done so. In short he answered the question by analogy. If you have a burger joint that was so wonderfully perfectly popular, the problem it has might be similar to tesla. Some will get out of line / or not get in line because whaaah , the lines too long, or whaah - they're too expensive, or whaah - I don't have enough money, whaah I don't like the area - whaah no ketchup . Etc.

Musk says he's relieved that some of the 400k are stepping out, because there are still around 1,800 peep's a day that are getting in line ... & it's troubling tesla can't immediately & quickly fulfill 100's of 1000's of orders yet.
EDIT - found the article

Elon Musk says Tesla Model 3 cancellations like hamburger line - Business Insider
Some are stepping out/not getting in line because whaah - expensive, or whaah, doesn't charge in 5 minutes, or whaah - doesn't go 500 miles, or whaaah - it's not a hatchback, whaah, color selection - whaah, only most expensive ones being sold 1st, or whaaah - not dual motor yet.
It's ok!
It simply doesn't matter if 400k are in line, to those that want you to see how important & rational their contrary view is. Their reason is real to them, and to them, that's all that matters.

Musk is glad, because they'll hopefully keep the line from getting even more ridiculously long - even as the contrarians continue to rant about how the model 3 is just stupid for lots & lots of reasons - because it doesn't work - for 'them' .
Salute their wisdom.

.

 

I did 18 months of modeling and analysis that included figuring out this problem using NHTS data and analysis of large hills in the US, combined with modeling of cars and light trucks. This was both a technical and economic analysis. I was over a thousand hours of work.

 

So Lee, I would be curious if you have an estimate on when PHEVs will overcome hybrids market share. And, when BEVs will surpass the market share of hybrids.

 

Market analysis isn't part of what I did.

 

You should! Maybe the analysis will show ev's are going to quickly diminish from the market, as presently technologically configured

In fact I just saw the infinite battery pack warranty will not be extended to the model 3. (crossing fingers another 60k will get out of line. see post #265)

 

Fair enough, how about your opinion on the subject.
You seem to have a very firm belief in how common your driving patterns are.
Some time ago, I made a prediction in a thread that plug-in vehicles will surpass the market share of hybrids by 2025.
Currently, I believe that will happen much quicker. I would currently guess BEVs will surpass hybrids in 2019. If gas prices spike, I would back that up to 2020-2021.
I was just curious what you thought?

 

Predicting the market is like predicting the weather.

If a new technology is superior in most regards to the old technology, the new will replace the old extremely quickly.

The reason Ev's are such a small portion of the market is that they are not superior in most regards, only some.

Based on the NHTS data.

No idea, especially something like BEV's versus hybrids or PEVs versus hybrids, since they are all very small in relation to the market.

BEVs versus conventional will be very fast if there's a battery break-through of some sort. Until then, very slow adoption just like now, except in niche applications or for 3-sigma consumers like ourselves. The 8% a year or whatever isn't enough for BEVs to be main-stream for quite a long time (decades, probably). By "main-stream" I'm talking about the majority of all light vehicle sales. That's why I'm in favor of plug-in hybrids until batteries get far better than they are today.

 

Well if the goal is your extremely long range, then sure. But that will surely require technical breakthroughs that are not necessary for most of the plug-in or general car market.

And ... as I've stated, phevs are for your segment of the plug-in market. It doesn't need these ultra big batteries to get a high percentage on plug in power.

It should be remembered that the volt is a P53, the i3 is a P97, and the clarity phev is a P42. The magic number will probably change based on type of vehicle and target customer. We have learned from these cars is having a tiny average generator doesn't make much sense, and requires holding more soc in the battery, meaning larger battery, less efficient generator, and in current implementation louder. The i3's 600 cc 2 cylinder 38 hp engine is too small. The volts 1.5L engine is more efficient with better NVH, having much better characteristics for a phev, despite being physically a little bigger and heavier. Mazda says they have tamed even more efficient hcci, with a spark controlled sometimes, but most efficient as a super charged compression ignition gasoline engine due out in 2019. Maybe this technology will get to 44% peak efficiency in a phev, 10% less gasoline in highway driving than the prime.

Ultracaps are more expensive and physically larger than comparable batteries per unit of energy. The race is on for breakthroughs versus battery breakthoughs here though. I would bet that when you get to the size of bmw's i8 battery (7kwh) batteries are going to stay ahead. The ultracaps may replace lithium batteries in start stop, and non plug-in hybrids though if costs come down. Here quickly storing or sourcing power is more important than energy or leakage.

 

Or if gas got up to $20 a gallon your argument would be moot.

People would figure out how to make due with what's on the market

 

My preferred approach for a P40 is to use a fuel cell for the extender. Quiet, efficient, light and 1/10th the cost of the one in the Mirai but fueling infrastructure isn't there so I'd do that later. BMW's approach makes no sense due to tank size, engine type and efficiency. Free piston direct drive might work. Prime and Volt are okay but the range extender is big and heavy because it's almost full power. The whole point is to reduce batter energy by a factor of 10 and extender power by a factor of 10 at the same time.

 

Being one among the numerous 2+ car households, perhaps adding a used Leaf or similar in a few years would be a good fit. You will be able to easily achieve P40+ with that for well under $10k and could use your Prime for road trips with no range anxiety or delays.

 

I was curious and looked up the number of gas station and number of electric charging stations currently in the country. From the latest data I could find, there are 121,446 gas stations Gas Station Industry Statistics – Statistic Brain (down from a high of over 200,000) How many gas stations are there in the U.S? and 16,123 electric charging stations Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle Charging Station Locations

Now, we also know that Volkswagon is required to install $2 billion worth of charging stations and Elon Musk said at the Model 3 delivery event that Tesla is planning to triple the number of Superchargers nationwide next year. If we take these as indicative of the direction of the EV charging industry, then it's reasonable for the charging infrastructure as a whole to double or triple the current number of chargers year over year until parity is reached. If we then assume at least 16,000 new charging stations are added each year, then in 8 years from now (or less), EV charging stations will be as common as gas stations. And that, combined with more affordable 300+ mile battery packs, will make range anxiety a thing of the past and eliminate most objections people would have to driving an electric vehicle.

 

While "most" of us on PC consider Hybrids practical...BEVs are still NOT direct replacements for ICE or Hybrid...at this time. Buy what you want using your own money, opinion and justification...and "accept" that others will buy what they want using their money, opinion and justification.

Remember how irritating it was when Bubba Truck (and others) ragged you for buying/owning a Prius. Well it's just as irritating when BEV'ers rag others for not buying/owning what they have.

Tesla's bold and admirable move has forced GM and others to rethink a segment of their markets...but...the future of BEVs for "everyone" is only an educated guess.

 

one concern i have about current charging infrastructure is availability. i know that when i pull up to a gas station, even if busy, i'll be back on the road fairly quickly.
but i don't know, when i pull up to a charging station, if someone is using it, and how long they'll be there.
if i'm planning on a quick break, say i want a 30 minute charge, but i find out i have to wait 30 minutes or more to get to a charger, that's off putting.
or say i'm on a long road trip, and i stop for the night, but can't get access to a charger before going to bed, that's a problem.

 

If you are planning hydrogen, you'll be waiting longer for it than ultra fast charging.

I think Tesla's know if a Supercharger is in use, and might be able to make reservations.
As for overnight, people are already packing extension cords for charging from their room outlets. I think it's better to just go to a hotel with L2 chargers available.