Luxury brands place fuel cell bets

No shoehorn - I thought I thoroughly explained what I meant. Toyota has no intent on reforming poo into the lion's share of its hydrogen ... and has no intent on using electricity to distill the lion's share of its hydrogen. Sorry if that was not clear. I understand the issue you think about when you hear grid-tied. We all supposedly try to do our part. In the meantime some poor slob on a ventilator or someone driving down the road on a plugin uses maybe a bit of the grid. Most don't take such a critical concern. Even so, if you got a couple ofTesla's power walls you could go 100% renewable, if it really meant that much to you. And even a half dozen of them would be WAY cheaper than the cheapest six-figure fuel cell for home use - which still runs on natural gas, last time I checked. Maybe fuel cells will be fossil free in the future - you know - maybe in 10 years?

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I apologize for my response sounding insulting and cynical. It was only meant cynical but not insulting!

My personal opinion on "Unintended Acceleration" (Toyota and Audi before): Toyota only payed to avoid the inevitable costly and long law suits in the US. I followed the reported problems about Toyota cars and Prius closely back in 2009/2010.

For instance when your gas pedal gets stuck because you have 3 or more floor mats on top of each other then you can decide for yourself about the "responsibility of Toyota".
When a driver reports that he cannot stop his Prius for several miles despite fully braking, then you can decided for yourself how much the "responsibility of Toyota" is when every experiment done with the exact same car or similar Prius cars showed that the car cannot accelerate when you push the brake more than about half of of its way down.

... is it ever about the truth? I doubt it, especially when power or money is involved

Is Hydrogen an energy source? Yes, in the definition of energy source as "material that can be used to produce power" (Cambridge English Dictionary). Is it a primary energy source - no. Is it an energy carrier, yes in the same way as wood, sunlight or oil.
So once again, Hydrogen "is an energy source" even when you doubt it.

I see, so now It is Japan's and Toyota's responsibility to avoid using coal in the future. It is the same responsibility as my responsibility as gasoline buying consumer for human rights violations in Saudi Arabia or the huge environmental issues with oil in Nigeria.

Mountains of coal ash, know what? It is OK to produce electricity for a clean Tesla from coal and nuclear power plants (besides of all the electricity produced from water power).
Speaking of water power: When producing power from water then water is only the energy carrier (as it carries potential and kinetic energy) but not an energy source (as its material is not used or altered in any form to produce power).

Note about Japan's natural resources to produce electricity: I count water power as a natural resource. About 8% of Japan's electricity is generated from water power, and about 2% from other renewable resources.

Best regards,
Pale Fox

 

hopefully we ALL assume responsibility as much as possible for 'wrongs' going on, in our behalf, or colaterally happening due to our way of life. (btw, you left out 911). It was only after I saw planes crashing into New York towers that I tried to be more responsible by reducing our fossil fuel usage, & of course as a collateral benefit causing less pollution and co2 belching. That process for our family included hybrids 1st, to replace SUV's - then an electric car, then a large solar array, & lastly we hope to replace the remaining hybrid with a 2nd ev. For now that's the best we can do. That said, I'll bet if we were able to take even ½ of our country's Multi trillion-dollar military costs, most in the US could afford to seriously limit our fossil fuel polluting. Then we wouldn't have to be over there "protecting our interests" , which shouldn't be our interests anyway. To that end, I will continue to protest using fossil fuel burning fuel cells as a band aid answer to the non-renewable issues.

the chart does nothing for you, great, but you ASKED for the stats - remember? where are most plugins? and WHAT is their source to recharge? Deflect all you want, but next time don't bother asking for something you really don't want to even consider, in hopes the data won't easily be recoverable, and some how that makes hydrogen's indefensible use more palatable ... the point is, hydrogen has to claim that plugins are for the majority using coal electricity . . . . and pointing out what a lie that is ... shining the spotlight on that deceptive methodology galls the hydrogen lobby no end. They don't want the truth told - that if hydrogen cars were only sold in west Virginia their filth would even be more obvious - that unlike the 10's of thousand of plugins (actually) sold in clean(er) electricity states, the hydrogen car will most likely NEVER be able to run as clean ... not that this will be easily acceptable to the, "weeee! new technology!" 'believers' ... when in fact hydrogen has been a fail since the 1970's - as per the exploding 1970's era hydrogen van already previously posted, and 'explained away' as being due to its being manufactured by others.
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For apartment and condo dwellers, charging for a BEV is an issue. Installing charging for them at their residence or work will likely be less costly than building hydrogen stations and the supporting infrastructure.

With their energy concerns, that hydrogen infrastructure may be preferable for Japan, and maybe for some other small countries. For the US, the infrastructure needs to be built out beyond a few test states for hydrogen cars to have a meaningful impact, and that will take a lot of money.

Since we are talking in can's. Renewable diesel can be made independent of fossil and imported fuels, and Volvo has shown that you can have a reliable running fuel cell using diesel for the hydrogen source. If you don't want to deal with an ICE.

Vehicle to grid is all about making plug ins part of the grid. I personally would opt out of it if it were available, just saying FCEVs aren't the only car that be part of the infrastructure.

Toyota has no intent in making any hydrogen. The increasing costs of this test has forced them to put money into the infrastructure side of things.

The fine was because there were complaints and investigations going on in other countries. Under US law, Toyota was required to report them. They didn't, and lied about them when asked.

If you are against coal, you should be against it for FCEVs and plug ins. It is far more easier for the consumer to determine how their electricity is made than it would be for their hydrogen, gasoline, or diesel. For the first, people have options in buying cleaner electric or in making their own. In the latter, they are at the mercy of the selling company and any regulations.

 

Toyota, Honda, Mercedes, BMW, and GM think there will be infrastructure in the future and are moving forward with Hydrogen cars. It seems to me that these 5 auto companies have been pretty successful in selling cars people want.

The future is still unknown as to how Hydrogen will be made, it's too early to say for sure.

 

Yes I put Toyota and Honda and Hyundais sales estimates up.

Mercedes, BMW, and GM no longer see a bright future for fcv in the near teram (next decade) and have throttled back their efforts. Only mercedes of the 3 is likely to have another fcv out in the next 5 years. Mercedes is not expecting any kind of volume on it. Nissan will use that tech for anouther one probably around 2021, but their big effort is bevs.[

Absolutely. When you look out 100 years who knows. I'm hoping for those technical advances.

The next 5 years are pretty clear though, much less than 100,000 vehicles world wide. In fact if you follow my numbers I expect less than 33,000 world wide 2014-2019 from looking at each manufacturer. That is much less than tesla will sell this year alone, which means they can't be catching up. 2020-2025 toyota is promising tens of thousands of vehicles, but no one else appears to be thinking even in the thousands. 500,000 has to be a cap here for cumulative fcv 2014-2025. If they are going to pass the million plug-ins sold so far it will be breakthroughs say it with me.
In another ten years.

It simply can't happen faster than that. without some real big miracle.

 

Well things happen, VW wanted to be the number one selling car in the US. That will never happen with the diesel scandal. Maybe people will raise the fear of EMF and EV sales will fall, and Hydrogen will take off.....no one really can predict the future. Life is too short, drive what you want. This debate is getting old.

 

Just like the FCV adage is getting old...'in just ten years..." Such fantasy. Do the laws of physics change in 10 years? what planet will that happen on?

 

Sure, many were skeptical of americans buying a lot of diesels even before the scandal. VW was shaking up US operations because sales were not going well even before people knew they were cheating. VW group does very well in Europe and China though. Not many diesels in China but I wonder the fall out in Europe. It may be more plug-ins.

I'm not trying to debate, but bring the wild claims back to reality. When people put out wild estimates on how fast fcv can grow, they seem to ignore the people in their own company saying they can't build them profitable that fast. If toyota thinks it can absorb the loss on about 30,000 fcv around 2020, that's great, its more than some of us expect. But to then start thinking they will be able to pump out 200,000/year and not have stock holders in revolt, and dealers wondering who is going to buy these things, is delusional. No way cumulative all manufactures get a million fcv out in the next decade. When nissan made wild claims about plug-ins 10% of their sales by 2020, no one belived them. Why believe the wild hydrogen fuel cell claims.

I said it half joking, but sure it could happen. Think of Chu's for miracles

1) energy costs. This one is quite likely by 2025 that reforming natural gas in the US, and Reforming coal and sequestering the carbon dioxide for Japan (Current toyota plan) could get cost competitive with gasoline. Sure oil is low now, but it always goes back up in price, and Japan can simply tax it enough to make hydrogen look competitive.

2) Fuel Cell costs and reliability. This one is also quite likely. My guess is Toyota currently has the cost at about $350/kw (maybe their figure is now, maybe in 2017 with the new equipment, idk). Get it down to around $100/kw, and add powerful batteries you may only need a 75 kw stack ($7500). I think they are investing for this, who knows if they or honda/gm or mercedes/ford/nissan gets there first, but breakthroughs are likely we just don't know when. Lots of work being done for the fork lift fuel cell market as well. SOFC are too hot but they already have greatly reduced precious metals, this can be done for PEM.

3) Hydrogen storage is bulky and needs to be protected. You never will be able to get this 10,000 psi in a small car. Just look at the space it takes up in the mirai. I'm not sure if this is a biggy though. They just need to get creative in packaging, but you never will get them in a car as aerodynamic and light as the prius. Maybe you get a fuel cell avalon or lexus ES though with a stretch to make room for the tanks. Alternatives metal hydrides or methanol with reformers. Progress has been slow on hydrides. Methanol should be straightforward, but ... the manufacturers don't like it. There really is not an efficiency gain in a methanol fuel cell versus a methanol hybrid.

4) Infratructure. That is the big one. Japan is spending big, but it will cost hundreds of billions to build hydrogen in a country as large as the US. Japan looks like it will have a skeleton in 2030, which means they can probably push the fcv around 2027. If all they are is competitive with phevs, I don't know who would spend the money in the US or Europe though. They need some reason for government or business to put up the investment. Maybe in 10 years they will think of a reason ;-)

 

Not really (anytime soon anyway), since most of the remainder of the states outside of CA still have far more charging stations than they do H2 refueling stations (most have none).