Looking to the future: what hybrid should toyota build next?

The heaviest platform with the 2.5L HSD is the NX. It is just over 2 tons in curb weight. The lightest Sienna is 300 pounds heavier than that. The above base trims are 500 pounds heavier. The weight is more inline with the RX hybrid. The hybrid minivans Toyota has in Japan are small compared to what people expect in the US. They are between current minivans and the Mazada5 in size, IIRC, or a Sienna from 2 generations ago.

There will be some fuel economy improvement, but not enough for people to pay for what Toyota will ask. It might do better than the Highlander hybrid in sales, but that isn't saying much.

 

Are you saying the mpg gain would be less than 35%?

I suspect a myth has built up that hybridizing heavier vehicles doesn't make sense or work well. I don't see any major reason why this should be true for a minivan or typical SUV.

I suspect the "problem" is that heavier vehicles tend to be more expensive and car makers have almost always put performance-oriented hybrids in them rather than doing efficiency-oriented designs that downsize the gas engine and tweak the hybrid controller for mpgs.

Specifically, GM with their hybrid trucks and SUVs and Toyota with the Highlander and almost all of the Lexus hybrids (I think). The Chevy Tahoe SUV went from 15 to 20 mpg on the city estimate (33% better) even though the hybrid version actually upsized the engine from a 5.3L V8 to a 6.0L V8 and the Tahoe weighed almost 1,500 pounds more than a Sienna.

The Camry hybrid system in a Sienna would have about the same 23 pounds per HP of system output as a Prius liftback.

I would guess most minivans do a lot of city driving and the Sienna has an EPA city estimate of 19 mpg. Why wouldn't you want to hybridize that?

 

First, the 2.5 HSD in the Camry produces 200hp. The 3.5L V6 in the Sienna(only option) makes 266hp. A Camry can get about just fine with less power in the base 4 cylinder. The hybrid is a bit of a performance boost, but it is over a half ton lighter than the Sienna. The NX is the heaviest car with the 2.5HSD, and while not bad, it won't be winning any pink slips. A Sienna with a 2.5HSD will likely be a poster child for 'hybrids are slow' after adding the 245lbs for the hybrid system. Or the system will call on the ICE more; more fuel burned. Or it will need a larger battery; more weight, space, and cost.

Most likely the 3.5HSD in the HiHy that produces 280hp net, will be the one in a hypothetical Sienna hybrid. The HiHy is $7500 more than the equivalent Highlander. The Tahoe hybrid had the same, or higher, price increase. They both got a good improvement in fuel economy, but it wasn't the leap like between a Camry's mid-20mpg to the Camry hybrid's low-40mpg. The public sees that, and the extra the manufacturer wants them to pay, and passes on the hybrid. One of those SUVs is longer made, and the other sells in small numbers, and would likely be cancelled if not for luxury platform mate.

tl;dr Any fuel economy improvement to hybridizing the Sienna would be too small to get the public to buy it for the likely higher price.

 

The NX is a new vehicle and I didn't know much about it until today.

So, it weighs 4,000 pounds. The hybrid city EPA is 35 mpg vs 22 mpg for the conventional turbo engine. That is 59% better. From memory, the Camry is around 3,300 pounds and the hybrid version gets 70% better city mpg than the conventional (43 mpg vs 25 mpg).

Your saying that adding another 500 pounds on the NX and going to a 4,500 pound hybrid Sienna will suddenly not make much of an improvement? Really?

The Russian version of the NX gets a 2.0L 150 HP engine which is around 27 pounds per HP versus around 21 pounds per HP for the hybrid NX. Given that, a 23 pound per HP hybrid Sienna seems like a good fit to me
-- probably 0-60 mph in 10.5 seconds or so.

Overall, the Camry combined EPA is 41 mpg vs 28 mpg or 46% better. The NX combined EPA is 33 mpg vs 25 mpg or 32% better but the NX non-hybrid is turbo whereas the Camry non-hybrid 4 cylinder is naturally aspirated, I think, so the highway mpgs are closer. The Sienna engine is non-turbo.

 

I don't know if it would sell, but I too would love to see something like the Estima Hybrid brought to the US. Growing up our family had several of the "Ace" and Previa 4cyl AWD Toyota vans, and they were great family vehicles. They were smaller, but still much more utilitarian than almost any SUV sold today. For me minivans have just gotten too big, too powerful, too heavy, too thirsty, and too expensive. We're probably in the minority, but we drive a Prius v as a family of 5 and would leap at the opportunity for a three row van with mid-30s to 40s class mpg. I would think there would be a decent market opportunity in the US for a smaller, cheaper, more fuel efficient alternative to the "full size minivans" currently sold here. Would make a great addition to the Prius family as a hybrid only offering.

I love the idea of the Mazda 5, but its just a touch too small. If it were offered with an HSD though, we probably would have bought it instead of the v.

Rob

 

Not enough of one that people will buy it. The public doesn't look at percentage increases. They see the flat mpg difference, and that's it. If the price is higher than what they think that number is worth, they will not buy. Specially when advanced ICEs(direct injection, turbo, stop/start, etc) or diesels can get a good portion of the way to hybrid fuel economy for a lower cost.

The NX with 2L turbo gets 7.2s for 0 to 60mph. The hybrid drops to 9.1s. All the NX reviews mention this reduced performance. The 2015 Sienna got 7.8s with Car and Driver. If a hybrid did it in over 10 seconds, not only would the auto mags write about it, but it also becomes more noticable to the potential buyer. And for those that it matters, the AWD hybrid will have a lower tow rating , and the FWD will have none.

Best case a Sienna hybrid will have a mpg rating around that of a Highlander hybrid, but be slower with lower tow rating. Price wise, it should around that of the Avalon hybrid, but the HiHy should also be available in trims lower than limited and isn't. The price will be higher if the V6 HSD is needed for performance.

Toyota's hybrid minivans in japan are a touch bigger than the Mazada5, but judging by what is on the road, most minivan buyers want the bigger ones here.

 

I always wished them to use the hybrid technology for bigger vehicules. I don't see why a hybrid Sienna would not be worth the spending. It should be easier to have a short payback time. It's better to save 25% of 2000$/year than 35% of 1000$/year and the price of manufacturing isnt much higher. Many components are the same. Also, they have a better profit margin to play with and absorb a percentage of the extra cost.
They need a 4 cylinder hybrid with around 250 combined hp. It would do the task of a V6 taking less fuel than a 4 cyl at a selling price close to the V6. Then they could even drop the V6 in the camry.

 

Here's a comparison of the exterior dimensions:
Prius v / Mazda 5 / Toyota Estima / Toyota Sienna
Wheelbase (in): 109.4 / 108.3 / 116.1 / 119.3
Length (in): 181.7 / 180.5 / 188.8 / 200.2
Width (in): 69.9 / 68.9 / 70.9 / 78.2
Height (in): 62.0 / 63.6 / 68.9 / 68.9
Box Volume (cuft): 455.7 / 457.7 / 533.7 / 624.2
Weight (lbs): 3274 / 3457 / 3803 / 4310
US Base MSRP: $26,750 / $21,240 / ???? / $28,600

 

So there is a Hybrid Minivan already in Japan .... from 2001???

Toyota Estima Hybrid Minivan | House of Japan - Japan News Technology Autos Culture Life Style



Seen that Estima so far I like it. Damn 40 MPG? O_O

Why Can't the U.S. Have Toyota's 40 MPG 4WD Minivan? - Gas 2

 

"Size-wise, the Sienna is: 200.2-inches long, 78.2-inches wide, 68.9-inches high, and wheelbase is 119 inches. The Estima is 188.8-inches long, 70.9-inches wide, 68.9-inches high, and wheelbase is 116.1 inches. The Alphard is 191-inches long, 72-inches wide, 75-inches high, and wheelbase is also 116.1 inches." - Toyota's Fuel-Sipping Estima And Alphard Hybrid Minivans – Off Limits For US - HybridCars.com

The Alphard is a fancy pants Estima, but the article mentions its curb weight at 4200lbs. The weight for the Sienna above is for the base L. The LE is 4450 and XLE 4540 for the FWD versions. The HSD in Camry adds 245lbs.

The Alphard and Estima are AWD and get 44mpg on a Japanese test cycle. Exact one not mentioned, but the Prius gets around 70mpg, if not higher. So these minivans would likely get around 31mpg on the EPA. They do use an older generation of the system in the RX with a 2.7L engine though. The Esquire minivan is newer and sounds like is using a version of the HSD from the Prius. It gets 55mpg on the Japan test, so around 39mpg expected on the EPA. Sounds good, but it is 'somewhat smaller' than the Sienna. Forbidden Fruit: Toyota Esquire Hybrid Luxury Minivan

It would come down to educating the buyer on the savings potential, and pricing it right. That hasn't played out with the HiHy. It did well at first, but that was when your choice was it or a Prius followed soon after by the Camry. There is now the v among other choices. Not to mention it is also Limited AWD only. The 8mpg it gains isn't enough for most buyers to spend the money.

While higher priced and larger vehicles have better margins than compacts, the unibodies used in crossovers and minvans don't enjoy the amount that body on frame pick ups and large size SUVs do. While I wouldn't be surprised if Toyota has a current generation HSD between the 2.5L and 3.5L that could fit the bill for an American minivan, they still have to price it right. A person buying a minivan most likely has more than one kid, so will be more cautious on such large purchases.

 

Here's an interesting article concerning what if 2016 Tacoma Hybrid.

A 31 MPG 2016 Toyota Tacoma Hybrid 4WD pickup is possible - Torque News

Also a article of the A-BAT Hybrid Pickup concept.

How the Toyota A-BAT Hybrid Truck Works - HowStuffWorks