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It's official Toyota is full speed fuel cells for compliance after 2014

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, May 13, 2014.

  1. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    Interestingly enough California is setting some money aside for public charging stations:
    California Energy Commission Awards 10 Grants Worth $3.5 Million To Install 181 Charging Stations

    However, the math seems a bit funny, as $3.5 million divided by 181 chargers comes out to $19,337 per charger installation, which seems a bit steep (especially since they are not all L3). It would have made more sense to offer it as a tax credit to businesses that was previously available via federal funds.

    Oh, and $46.6 million for this ghost of a hydrogen network. Plus $1.2 million just for operation and maintenance costs.
     
  2. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    They're taking a break from the Volt. :p
     
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  3. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Maybe this chart illustrates *WHY* Toyota is moving toward Fuel Cells? Notice the 100 hours line!

    [​IMG]
     
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That high time value, 100 hours, is merely a reflection of FC having the poorest Power Density of any item on the chart. While its Energy Density is great, delivery is slow.
     
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  5. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    $3.5 mil for plugin infrastructure to support appx ¼ million plugins represents $15-$20 per plugin

    ... but $46.5 million for 2,000 hydrogen cars represents appx $23,250 per hydrogen car.
    Let's play 'find the red-headed step kid's
    :(
    Toyota reports that the rav4-ev sales were set to limits of a couple thousand units. If the same level of hydrogen sales ever ever happens, will Toyota claim their hydrogen is a huge success? If so, wouldn't that mean the same is true for their EV that had the same sales #'s in the same single state?
    .
     
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  6. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    I think Toyota backed the wrong horse with the EQ due to it only going 50 miles, and rather than admit their mistake or think or a work around such as a true EV Prius, they've just pulled the plug on the whole BEV project. (did you like the pun?)

    Toyota are also discontinuing the IQ here in Europe, so I wonder if that car's who reason to be was to become Toyotas multi powered car (petrol or diesel or electric options). When they realised people just didn't want a car that did 50 miles MAX, the was no reason for the car itself.

    The Mitsubishi I-miev was actually a petrol car sold in Japan and the UK since about 2006/7. The electric option followed later.

    I think Toyota are making questionable decisions of late. The plug in was a big disappointment, other than in the eyes of it's owners.
     
  7. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Building cars, not a hobby for car makers. Most on the list below are probably not making any money because of the low volume. EV Sales
    Carmakers should be careful as to what to build if this headline is be believed, take a look! Where the World's Unsold Cars Go To Die
    .
     
  8. Scorpion

    Scorpion Active Member

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    That's not quite the right analogy. :cautious:
    The treatments and criticisms are not alike.....as others have pointed out here, it is Toyota that is spreading FUD.
    Why?
    Simple........ask yourself what gives Toyota the 'F' in 'FUD'??
    It's the fact that they made the Prius and HSD in the first place!
    Now, they are feeling insecure about falling behind as EV technology marches ahead.
    That puts them in the same position as GM in the early 2000s. Back then, as others have noted here, GM pooh-poohed hybrids because they were 'sensitive' or 'insecure' about throwing away (in the car crusher) the lead they built with the EV1.
    And it's not just the EV1.......let's keep in mind that EV and the others during the 90's were in reaction to CARB mandates. What often gets lost in the discussion is the PNGV. Read:
    Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    80 mpg before 2000!?
    This was actually the main reason MITI funded hybrid development. So, the Big 3 basically defrauded the taxpayer to get money for cars they had no intention of building, but this backfired as Toyota responded with the Prius. The smart thing would have been to combine CARB ZEV with PNGV for one nationwide standard, but CARB was obsessed with 'zero emissions' so any ICE was out, Rex or not.
    Well, now the shoe is on the other foot. It is Toyota that is mooching off the public trough, but this is only going to get Tesla more motivated. I assure you every H2 station built will be responded to with a battery swap station (or 3, or 5)
    That's a lot of FUD. Here are some facts:
    Only one is cooled by light water, two are helium-cooled and the others have lead-bismuth, sodium or fluoride salt coolant. The latter three operate at low pressure, with significant safety advantage. The last has the uranium fuel dissolved in the circulating coolant. Temperatures range from 510°C to 1000°C, compared with less than 330°C for today's light water reactors, and this means that four of them can be used for thermochemical hydrogen production.

    Generation IV Nuclear Reactors: WNA


    Transport and the Hydrogen Economy

    Future nuclear reactors will be a safe and clean source of H2. Ditto for IGCC (aka 'clean' or 'capture-ready' coal)
    IGCC, supercritical - World Coal Association
    Hydrogen from Coal | Department of Energy
    By adding a ‘shift’ reaction, additional hydrogen can be produced.....
    Gasification may also be one of the best ways to produce clean-burning hydrogen for tomorrow’s cars and power-generating fuel cells. Hydrogen and other coal gases can be used to fuel power-generating turbines, or as the chemical building blocks for a wide range of commercial products, including diesel and other transport fuels.
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Sure and I applaud that they looked at smart ed and imev sales, and the leaf price, and killed the EQ before it cost them anymore money. The Rav4 EV with an anti-EV marketing camapaign, very limited distribution, and poor maintenance from toyota, outsold the imev which was sold nationwide. That EQ didn't have a chance, it might have sold 100 units in 2013 in the US.

    Now counter to what the anti-EVangelists at Lexus's ad agency would have you believe, toyota made bank on the RAV4 EV project.
    They invested $50M in Tesla, paid Tesla $100M for R&D and parts for the RAV4 EV, and tesla paid them $50M for NUMMI. Net cost to Toyota $100M

    Now Tesla looks like it bought NUMMI to do Toyota a favor. That place looked like an awful place to build cars back then, but it was a PR head ache to Toyota as the only union plant they had being closed to move production to non union plants in texas and mississippi. They could have sold it for the land, but the negative PR would have been greater than the selling cost. Tesla got a greater IPO price because of the relationship with toyota. The negative PR lately from toyota has taken that back and more, but it needed the cash more then than now.

    Net benefit to toyota's learning on the Rav4 EV is probably worth $50M, net losses on the 2600 cars are probably around $50M ($20K/car) Price of Tesla stock toyota now owns is worth $500M. Net benefit to toyota $500M. The whole deal if toyota were to sell the tesla stock today would result in a booked profit of $400M, or a 400% ROI. The relationship has been quite profitable to toyota, although their PR machine makes it sound like it was a disaster and a mistake. Why would they do that, instead of talking about another more market tuned plug-in car?

    They want to lower the bar for their fuel cell car. What do we have 1096, Rav4 EVs last year? The anti EV message will make sales harder this year, so they can claim no one wants them. I would expect fuel cell sales in 2015 and 2016 to have bigger losses per car, and all together (toyota has spent billions of it's own and Japanese & US government money on the project). I would be extremely suprised if Toyota US fcv sales per year greatly exceeded the RAV4 EV. No problem in my mind about killing the project and working on an EVER PHEV like NS4 was supposed to be, or a different BEV (likely with Tesla because that would be less expensive and less risk), but when you market as if you can sell your fuel cell in 20 states as the lexus advertisement, and they are much better ideas than plug-ins, we have to be critical. I mean look at how Tesla already outsells all the power hybrids from Lexus (RXh, GSh, LSh). Lexus can compete on the lower priced units (ESh, CTh), but luxury cars with lots of hp look like they may be going big battery pack. BMW and mercedes think so, and that is why they are working so hard to get there too.
     
  10. Scorpion

    Scorpion Active Member

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    Let's also not forget that the Rav4 EV(most likely deliberately) did not come with ChaDemo DC quick-charge port, while the Mitsubishi i-Miev did.
    Heck, all Toyota had to do was spend what, $200 per Rav4 EV putting in the port and let Nissan do all the work of actually making sure the ChaDemo network is expanded, which they have done:


    CHAdeMO Association


    To recap, there are 592 spots in the U.S. where a 2013 Rav4 EV (could have had) a quick charge, giving it greater driving range today than what ANY fuel cell car will have, even in 2020.
    Do you have more info on this? If I read your post correctly, Toyota invested $50 million but ends up with stock worth $500 million?
    I think you answered your own question here.....
    Well, I don't think Lexus would deliberately try to sabotage sales of the Rav4, despite their apparent disdain (it's not even on their website! Crossover SUVs | Toyota RAV4 2014) for EVs. The ad is clearly aimed at the BMW/MB/Tesla crowd (or current Lexus drivers), and I bet they hope that most of them are not even 'aware' that an EV Rav4 is even offered......hence the reason to pick on the LEAF, since more people know about it. No doubt Lexus is scared of Tesla

    Teslanomics-Lexus

    but if they are, why not just go head-to-head and put one in the ad? Why pick on the LEAF? Comparing a LEAF to a CT200h makes no sense to me........boy, GM could really slam them with an ad showing that both the Volt and the ELR are cheaper, faster, roomier, WAY more efficient/environmentally responsible, and (in the case of the ELR, arguably) better looking than the CT200h. Yes, MB and BMW might be hedging on big packs vs. fuel cells for their top-line luxury sedans, but at least they aren't doing any EV-bashing. The strategy of Lexus is confusing, because they'll have egg on their face if they end up throwing in the towel and going the BEV route. Those ads will be in cyberspace forever.........just look at how quickly we were able to find the iQ EV :whistle:
     
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  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The articles said toyota bought 2.4% of tesla stock for $50M, which is a better deal than I got but good for tesla too. Anyone that bought tesla early made a lot of money. Market cap on Friday close was $23.76B making the Toyota position worth $576M. Ofcourse if toyota sells that much stock the price will go down a little so I rounded down to $500M. Toyota would not have made the investment or been able to unload NUMMI if they didn't do the Rav4 EV, so this stock profit should be included in the profit for the Rav4 EVproject, if you are doing proper accounting. Now car companies seem to always do poor financial accounting so we should help them out;)
     
  12. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Which is more important to "watch," the three, upside-down walnut shells being shuffled back-n-forth, or the corporate money being shuffled back-n-forth?
     
  13. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    Honda is not "following" Toyota..... Honda's had a fuel cell car almost ten years now. Below is a review of it from Kryten the android..... oooops, I mean Robert Llewellyn.

    BTW the fuel cell body & dash/speedometer were reused for the Honda Insight (with mods). Watching this video is similar to watching the inside of an insight.

    Hydrogen is not the "only" answer to replace oil. Other options include:
    - electric
    - natural gas
    - biodiesel or ethanol in existing engines

     
  14. Scorpion

    Scorpion Active Member

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    Thanks for the video link. I enjoyed watching it, and recommend others do so as well.
    (looks like pumping liquid fuel that's -423.17 degrees Fahrenheit appears no problem (y))

    I think you misunderstood me......I certainly don't think Honda is following Toyota in terms of R&D or engineering excellence.......Honda obviously has an illustrious history here:

    - first hybrid car on the U.S. market, the 2000 Insight which arrived in '99
    - first (and still, the only) CNG car on the U.S. market, for over a decade now...Civic GX
    - take a look at the specs on the latest HEV/PHEV Accords
    - and of course, FCVs like the Clarity

    But that wasn't what I meant......I still believe Honda is 'following Toyota' in terms of marketing, sales, promotion and general corporate direction
    i mean, let's be real....Honda is a much smaller company, and despite their skills in this area, they have produced some flops:

    - the first Insight had record mpg, but was quickly eclipsed in sales by the Prius
    - the Civic hybrid never sold as much as the Prius
    - the 2nd generation of Insight tried to copy the 2nd generation Prius just as Gen 3 was coming out
    - Prius C has both more interior room and mpg while matching the Insight on price
    - the first 'performance hybrid' Accord was a flop
    - the CRZ has mixed reviews and sales, and is slow for a 'hybrid sports car'
    - etc. etc.

    So, yes it seems that Honda is more interested in not being left behind whatever Toyota is doing, rather than blazing their own trail. They pioneered hybrids, only to get left in the dust in terms of sales to Toyota, and they obviously don't want the same thing to happen with FCVs.
    If I could, I would ask them:
    - why they have never advertised or promoted the Civic Natural Gas more? Especially since the shale-gas bonanza of the last few years?
    - just how many home refueling stations they could have had with the money spent on FCVs?
    - why they never bothered to put hybrid drivetrain in the Civic Natural Gas?
    - wouldn't it be cheaper to add carbon-fiber 5000 psi CNG tanks to the Accord Hybrid as opposed to the extra batteries that turned it into the Accord PHEV?
    Such a vehicle would be a REAL threat to EVs, unlike FCVs, which are a phony threat. A CNG Hybrid Accord would have all the ultra low-emissions, cheap cost-per-mile and at-home refueling capability of an EV, but with:
    - much faster fillups during road trips
    - much longer range on a tank of 5000 psi CNG than with a 85 kwh Tesla-type battery
    - lower MSRP than EV
    The FCV......I'm just not buying it (literally!). You heard the man......2 million dollars, 12 euros per kg......yeah the costs will come down, but still........too much trouble compared to a CNG Hybrid
    I could say the space shuttle is "not the 'only' answer" for my travel options to Asia! (and it runs on Hydrogen!)
    Yes, I could travel to India blasting off from Cape Canaveral if I was a rich enough to buy one of the retired shuttles and got permission from NASA and the FAA. After all, it's just one of my options........along with the Boeing 747, 777, 787 and the Airbus A330/340 and A380.
    Obviously, just because something is not the "only" thing doesn't mean it makes sense for us to pursue.....just because something is technically possible doesn't mean it will be economic to do in the real world.....and I think FCVs fit that category.
    There is absolutely NO way an FCX Clarity would reduce emissions/oil use more than a Accord CNG Hybrid.....I challenge anyone to compare the economics of the two......FC's are a huge wasted opportunity cost since we have a solution right in front of our face. If we didn't, I'd say OK, keep developing, but in the last 5 years we have enough solutions, we just need to deploy, and not be distracted by the Fool Cell
    ("Hydrogen Fuel Cells: It's the fuel of the future, and it always will be!") :rolleyes:
     
  15. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    Toyota pioneered hybrids. Also the Civic CNG Is essentially a city car, due to lack of filling stations. It can not go any further east than Vegas. That limits the appeal of the car.

    Insight G2 was, to quote the Japanese designer, "an attempt to recreate the shape & appearance of the CRX" (an old 80s/90s car). The same was true of the older fuel cell Clarity. Why people forget the CRX is always a mystery to me. Honda doesn't need to copy Prius..... they can just copy their own designs from the past.

    And by the way, having rented the Insight and now an owner of Prius, I can say the insight is a much better road machine. It carves through canyons with certainty, while the Prius feels heavy & rolling. (shrug)

    I apologize if I offended you. Being a multi-car owner (Mitsubishi, VW, Honda, Toyota) I see cars in a way most people don't. I see their good & bad points. :) Plus I have no more affinity for a car than a refrigerator. They're all just things
     
  16. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Agreed, they're just transportation appliances.
     
  17. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Actually, without cost metrics included, that chart does not mean anything. A fuel cell car for $200,000 having the same exact characteristics as a BEV for $70,000 is not a better car because the fuel cell is 15% of the car and the battery is 30% of the car. Similarly, is the cost per mile of the fuel cell car is double that of the BEV per mile, what does this chart point out showing fuel cells are "superior".

    The other thing very deceptive about it is fuel cells get the advantage of not actually having very much energy in the fuel cell. The batteries and capacitors get penalized for being both the energy transformation and energy storage device. The fuel cell is only a energy transformation device, so the "density" factor of "x/kg" excludes all the Energy storage.
     
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  18. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    FWIW, that chart ONLY applies to the POWER source, NOT the vehicle(s) surrounding it, regardless of co$ts.
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Racing to Hydrogen success - Honda - Benz - Toyota. The presumption is the 1st to market wins. 'Market' in this case means selling in high volume to make the r&d worth the expense. Apparently many manufacturers build lots of cars, only to end up with hundreds & hundreds of acres of cars that never get sold by model years' end. They can't just sell 'em each for $5k-$6 or no on would buy next year's model. Left unused, oil never circulates & machined parts corrode. Then what do manufacturers do? ... buy hundreds more acres. It's an amazing sight - worth satellite googling. I'll post pic's later - but I started thinking about where the unsold FC cars will cars go. At least the hydrogen cars will have lots & lots of company.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Where the World's Unsold Cars Go To Die | Zero Hedge

    Mmmmmmm ... I could use a left front fender . . . .
    .
     
  20. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Agree with that detail.

    The core issue being discussed is why Toyota is
    1) Putting out insulting commercials for EVs
    2) Going to great lengths to influence regulators and
    3) Imitating GMs approach to hating EVs just after they figured out how to make a good EV.

    Are the pure technical specifics of fuel cells the underlying reason for those above actions?