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It's official Toyota is full speed fuel cells for compliance after 2014

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, May 13, 2014.

  1. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    9.9lbs is 4.5 kg.

    That's a lot of water. Driving on the highway it will be insignificant, but in a city where you're crawling along it could add up. In a warm coastal town it might be ok but in a cold damp November evening in the UK it could make things unpleasant.

    You say a FCV 'only' produces 37% more water vapour but that similar percentage applies to NOx in a Euro diesel car compared to a petrol etc.

    Still, even if the cities do become more humid, necessitating increased a/c use by residents, at least it's still better than soot and other nasties from petrol and diesel.
     
  2. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Vapor from the tailpipe drops to the ground in the extreme cold and instantly freezes causing road issues here every winter.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    In arizona it might help;) Seriously though a phev is going to have very low amounts of unhealthy pollutants. I know there are many that want ZEV, zero emissions vehicles, but most understand that low is good enough. The only way to get to zero is if the plant making the car was zero, the energy came from all renewable sources, etc. Last I checked water was a precious resource and in certain places make it less pleasant.

    Californication of the language gave us ultra low, but that wasn't enough then we got super ultra low emissions vehicle SULEV. fcv are going to be a tiny portion of vehicles for at least a decade, I doubt the higher water emissions will make much of an impact. If the reason for them is that they produce less pollution than BEVs, well that all depends on how the hydrogen is made, and how you count pollution. Odds are in california that BEV will produce less pollution, and require less expensive energy before subsidies. In england, hell, idk, but I can see fuel cell busses and delivery trucks moving around locally in London. We have a demo plug-in fuel cell bus here as part of a university program. It makes more sense than a plug-in natural gas bus, because the fuel cell required is tiny only 20 kw, which eventually will be cheaper than a natural gas running ice, and much cleaner than a diesel. Prices need to come down before cities buy these instead of full natural gas busses, but the grid power and natural gas reformed to hydrogen this is much more efficient with the wind and natural gas provided because of the PHEV compomponents. Infrastructure, well this was free, as the fueling station and methane reformer were donated + government money to research feasability. Really with busses for a city like austin you only need 2 hydrogen stations, for london probably 3, not really the infrastructure for cars though. I can't see this being worthwhile in cars, but the demo vehicle here demonstrated good usability in a bus with only the fuel cell cost of a car, the hydrogen tank costs are higher, but plenty of room on a bus roof to put them.
     
  4. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    FWIW, water-vapor (0.804 g/L @ STP) is lighter than air (1.27 g/L @ STP), and more so when warmer than the surrounding air, as it would be exiting the exhaust pipe.
     
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  5. Scorpion

    Scorpion Active Member

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    There are many real and vexing issues with FCV's, but the data leads me to believe that water vapor emissions are NOT one of them.......

    Water vapor dissipates rapidly and can barely be distinguished from background flux and the massive amounts of natural evaporation and water vapor in the atmosphere that absolutely DWARFS anything put out by humans.

    That is what makes it different from the other tailpipe pollutants you mentioned; those tend to stick around and harm human health & the environment.

    That is why even though water vapor is a GHG, in the history of GHG regulation, NO one has ever called for controlling human-produced water vapor, precisely because it is so insignificant.

    If you live in the UK....I believe there are approximately 20 million or so ICE cars there? Is water vapor currently a problem there (yes, I know UK is a damp place, but I'm talking 'man-made' ;)) ? No, of course not. In order to put out the same water vapor as the current ICE fleet, the UK would have to have 15 million FCVs on the road. Needless to say, that is a LONG ways away :0

    As far as tailpipe water vapor freezing on roads, they could possibly do exhaust treatment that mixes it with a (environmentally friendly, since it'll end up in the storm drain) solution of some sort that prevents freezing, in much the same way modern diesels use urea exhaust after-treatment; this would of course only be needed in cold climates, so it is a 'possible' disadvantage compared to BEVs

    Absolutely! I couldn't agree with these comments more. FCVs are the ultimate "bait & switch", and has been since the 'FreedomCar' days under George W. Bush.
    It's the same refrain, over and over: "Hey, we don't need to build EVs.....we're working on these FCVs and that is our future."
    So, FCVs are always "what we'll be driving in 10 years", and they keep saying that every 5 years FCVs are "only a few years" away.
    It's time to call BS
    As far as Big Oil, they are quickly becoming Big Gas.....I think I read Exxon Mobil is actually a 'gas company' if you look at their reserves based on BTUs rather than dollar value.
    I still don't see why they'd be for or against either one.......FCVs would use H2 that is reformed from NG......while EVs would increase electric demand, which would be met by........wait for it........NG power plants
     
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  6. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    I would really like to know what Toyota's expected (or estimated) sales quantities are for the hydrogen car. I can't imagine it would sell anywhere even close to the quantity the RAV4 EV sold. It would be nice to know if Toyota considers 10 hydrogen cars sold per month to be a success or a complete and utter embarrassment to the taxpayers. Realistically I see the ELR selling better than the hydrogen cars. I really do hope time will tell and I am proven wrong, but it's getting a bit depressing seeing our tax payer money going down a black hole for this technology.

    In addition, I would like to know what the plan is for actually pricing out hydrogen fueling stations stations. If it costs more than gasoline, a significant portion of potential buyers will not even bother, and only the environmentalists will be attracted to it. However if it's free or cheaper than gasoline, how the heck will it ever make back the initial investment to build up the fueling stations? Or does Toyota expect the government to continue funding hydrogen stations for at least the next 200 years? I haven't heard any word of Toyota (or other car manufacturers) offering to build their own hydrogen stations.

    Will California just make hydrogen Blue HOV Stickers and kick out all Green and White HOV Stickers from the carpool lanes to forcibly promote the hydrogen market? Realistically that is the only thing that I could imagine pushing the market at all, but I could just imagine the outcry from the White Stickers.
     
  7. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Will Toyota name this new vehicle "The HINDENBERG EXPRESS" by any chance? (wink,wink)
     
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  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well we get some numbers from Air Products and Mary Nichols (head of CARB) in their war of words with the DOE and chu three years ago. They were able to get full funding restored for fuel cells, and Chu was forced to cut what he considered more important things from from the DOE budget

    Obama Hydrogen Fuel Failure Conceded by Chu Paring Budget: Cars - Bloomberg
    Ok Chris. Why isn't the station public and selling hydrogen if it was viable 3 years ago?

    Actually there are only 10 public stations today. Why would anyone but a lobbyist count private stations for fuel sold cars?

    OK we have a price, but we know that almost 3 years later the company didn't install 10 public stations in southern california as the entire state only has 9.
    So we have the goal, 53K by the end of 2017, I am sure that when 2016 comes and they are not close at all, they will say they need more money. End of 2017 there should be over 600,000 plug-ins running around america. True we should be less than halfway to obama's goal of 1 million cars by the end of next year, but much further along than fuel cells.
    wait its getting closer to 2017 already what are the plans today, you know, after Nichols and the fuel cell lobby successfully got them money from tax payers.
    Honda, Toyota Will Launch Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles By 2015 (But They Won't Be Cheap)
    OK so between honda and toyota we expect them to build 2000 cars in 2015, no word on if they expect to sell them all that year, or take 3, and how many in the US versus the Japan and Europe. Maybe 1000 cars between the 2 in the US next year? idk. Hyundai is also unknown, but plans to lease its fuel cell vehicle at $499/month including maintenance, insurance, and hydrogen. Honda and Toyota may match Hyundai's price in the US, in Japan they don't need to do it, as Hyundai won't be able to sell them in Japan.

    If queen Mary attempts to do that, I hope governor brown throws her out on her anti-plug-in keister.
     
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  9. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    I need a citation to support the "MITI funded Prius development" claim. I cannot find anything on google about it, so it sounds erroneous.

    So fuel cells get more ZEV credits than electrics?
    What brain dead liberal on the CARB decided that?
    (Perhaps related to the congressguy who thinks islands "tip over".)

    Maybe the reason car companies are pushing Fuel cells is because they like seeing customers drive lots of miles, whereas Electric cars are self-limiting (~150 miles per day).
     
  10. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    Yup, they decided to bump up the ZEV credits on hydrogens and give electrics less.

    Source: CARB ZEV Program Changes; Tesla Takes Largest Hit, Fuel Cell Tech Wins
     
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Its in books, not websites, it was a long time ago. I've posted links that quote the books here numerous times, but don't feel like looking at them today. MITI did not fund prius development, they funded hybrid deployment. Honda and Toyota both got half the extra cost of the cars directly from miti compared to a similar non-hybrid. MITI funded fcv and bev development at the time, the bev development funding helped R&D of the electronics and batteries that honda and toyota used.

    A leaf will get 3 credits, a tesla 4 (because it goes 300 miles, no not EPA, a different formula for carb), and a fuel cell vehicle 9.
    Now it was 7 for tesla and 7 for fuel cell because they each "could" go 300 carb miles and "could" refuel in less than 15 minutes if there was actually a battery swap station or a hydrogen station. CARB redefined refuel to not use battery swap this year, and upped refuel with a pump to a whopping 5 extra credits. If you have a gas tank even with 300 mile aer, you might use it, so no credits for you. If your gas range is further than your electric range you also get no white sticker, hence the ridiculously small i3 gas tank. The genius behind adding more credits this year to fuel cells is Mary Nichols who also successfully lobbied congress for more federal hydrogen money, and Sacramento for $20 million from auto registration to fund her hydrogen highway. The genius that put the rules of 15 minute refuel to favor FCV over BEVs, but failed to realize swap could comply is Alan Loyd
    Two Cents Per Mile: Will President Obama Make it Happen with the STROKE of A ... - Nevres Cefo - Google Books
     
  12. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    ... than a new car. Our old non-hybrids cars are currently putting out 100% more, our old SUVs 200% more. For areas with fog and excess humidity and icing issues, an FCV's water emissions would still be an improvement over the status quo. So I see this particular item as a non-issue.
     
  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Perhaps I am getting the math wrong here, but it's 8.9kg of water vapor per kilogram, or GGE, of hydrogen burned. The hydrogen gas is naturally in a H2 state, which has a formula weight of about 2.016. Which means there is about 496 moles of hydrogen in the kilogram. After burning, there is an equal amount of moles of water. Its F.W. is 18.016. Multiply that by 496 for the mass of the water vapor.

    It might have an effect during the winter when the water vapor could form black ice.

    The out going Honda FCEV got 60 miles/kg. If the hydrogen does cost $5 a kg, the fuel cost would be $2.50 per gallon for an equivalent ICE car getting 30mpg. I doubt the $5 includes tax though.
    http://www.evaap.org/pdf/incentive.pdf
    Government policy & the development of hybrid and electric vehicles in Japan | Think Carbon

    Doesn't have the subsidy listed but does have info of the history of programs for the US, EU, and Japan.
    http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1995/9514/951407.PDF
     
  14. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ^^ that's correct since 1Kg H2 ~=2 lbs H2 ~= 1 lb mole H2 ~= 1 lb mole H2O = 18 lbs H2O (divide by 2 for approx Kg)

    For Prius burning 1-gal gaso I get about 8-lbs H2O made...but average vehicle is 25 MPG now
     
  15. Troy Heagy

    Troy Heagy Member

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    The liberals are going to bankrupt California. First they spent a ton of workers' money on electric highways up & down the state, but now they want to just abandon the idea! (In favor of making a hydrogen highway.) they should just change their name to "wasters".
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I posted the same information in a different way.

    Electric vehicle credits didn't really go down. The fuel cell extra bogus bonus loophole was changed, because as written tesla could get the extra credit by putting up battery swap stations. They rewrote it, and decided hey, now that the loophole is closed for bevs, why not add some extra credits for fuel cells, because they are falling farther and farther behind plug-ins. You know to make sure everyone knows CARB is a member of the fuel cell lobby.

    California Air Resources Board | California Fuel Cell Partnership

    See no conflict of interest here. Its not like CARB needs to show that its rules actually have to make the air cleaner.

    I think tesla S getting 4 credits and leaf getting 3 is more fair than tesla getting 7 versus 3. The problem comes when CARB working as part of the fuel cell lobby, writes rules for the fuel cell lobby, and people act as if it really cares about clean air.
     
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  17. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    WHY do you think the rest of continental USA keeps trying to break away from California (the BIG one)...(wink,wink)?
     
  18. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    What we see here with Toyota is the standard corporate fossilization that happened with GM, Ford, and Chrysler once the great vehicle vision was replaced with pure financial focus. The FCV has essentially nil market pull (i.e. Consumer Demand), so market push (Government/Industry regulations and economic manipulation) is at full throttle. The only question is how much throttle must be permanently maintained to provide critical mass. All it takes is some amount taxpayer money to be permanently redirected from EVs to FCVs. That is really the only variable in play here.
     
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  19. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Sung to the tune "Whatever Lolla Wants": "...Whatever EPA Wants, EPA gets..."
     
  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Pointing out how vile this whole thing is . . . it just makes me wonder - Is there any chance we'll end up getting banned from PC for spotlightiing the hydrogen insanity? That's about the only thing left that could possibly make this wet dream any more stupid. All this ... It's how I spell comic tragedy.
    .
     
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