Featured Is Toyota Prius hybrid simply passe now that plug-in cars are here?

Thinking the competition is only other plug-in vehicles sets the bar horribly low, pushing mainstream expectations out to the next generation. Why that perspective? Why such a pessimistic outlook?

Traditional vehicles are absolutely crushing sales of plug-in vehicles. Simply watching that continue while also remaining dependent upon tax-credits for the next 5 years is absurd. To overcome this, mainstream volume must be reached in the next few years, by mid-cycle.

It simply makes no sense taking a niche approach now that the battery-tech has finally reached a point of being affordable and offering enough energy-density to compete with other vehicles in the dealer's lot and on the showroom floor.

 

agreed. it must be reached, but it won't be. there's nothing about the prime that suggests anyone will switch to it from a gas guzzler, at least until gas goes back over $4. it's a completely niche vehicle with 4 seats, and little storage. that's the reason for all the negativity, nothing about the lift back is exciting non prius drivers, and prime offers nothing more.

if toyota were thinking that the competition were a camry or highlander, they would have made a plug in vehicle that would attract those buyers, i.e., sedan, roomy, cheap.

 

You're over-thinking the situation... a very common problem with online discussions.

Some people are simply looking for an entry-level plug-in vehicle. They're the ones with a some extra $$$ to get something nice that doesn't necessarily have to be 100% practical.

I encounter that type of interest on a regular basis now with that new grocery store so close that offers those free charging spots.

In other words, Toyota is going after those fence-sitters... who are more abundant than you think.

 

agreed, some people probably are.

 

Exactly! Until we start seeing conquest sales, significant numbers like at least 1-2% per year, we're going to remain a small, insular group. In effect, Cassandra:

A common version of her story relates how, in an effort to seduce her, Apollo gave her the power of prophecy—but when she refused him, he spat into her mouth to inflict a curse that nobody would ever believe her prophecies.​

Bob Wilson

 

That bitch !

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60,000 a year. Where did I hear that before? Oh, yeah. It was Toyota's initial projection for the PiP. Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia GM really is showing to be the more apt student when it comes to plug ins.

Because it is realistic.

Hybrids make up about 20% of the fleet in Japan. There they had incentives from the introduction of the first Prius to the first year the PiP was on sale. That is 13 years of incentives working with higher fuel prices and stiffer car inspections.

Those other sales pressures do not exist in the US for hybrids and plug ins. For hybrids, we really just need effective systems in cars people are willing to buy without price gouging. The new Rav4 one is selling at around 50% of the new Prius, and it isn't farfetched that it could match the Prius in sales in the future.

Plug ins have more than fuel economy to sell upon, which is why their sales haven't been as hurt as hybrids by the low gas prices. They do still have a steeper price increase than the hybrids though.

Tesla, Nissan, and GM haven't taken a niche approach, but it takes more than a lower price tag for the general public to except a plug in car. It requires more change from them. A hydrogen FCEV is an easier sell in that regard. Once the billions is spent on infrastructure, a person doesn't have to make any changes from owning an ICE car to owning a FCEV one.

The EV drive experience is able to win over more than hybrids did, but doesn't help sell cars to people that don't have access to regular charging. So the potential market for plug ins is smaller than for regular cars from the start. On top off that, the dealer network can be hostile to actually selling them. So a company treating them as more than niche isn't enough for a sudden spike in sales growth. The second gen Prius had higher gas prices and incentives to help it out in the US.

PS: I think John has me on ignore, if anyone felt like repeating these points.

With more companies getting into plug ins than into hybrids during the same period of their history, I don't think we need to see one model to do great in order to see that rate increase. Chrysler is going to have a PHEV that will also be North America's first hybrid minivan. Before that, they only had a two-mode SUV that was quickly cancelled.

Low gas prices is hurting sales, but CAFE targets are going to pressure more sales to counter all the guzzlers the public is now buying.

 

toyota is retraining all their dealer salespeople as we speak. they really are going to shock the world. this is the new mandate for prius team, and why they are hiring more persons.

 

Hummmm, I'm retiring soon. Perhaps team Toyota will drop a line to Bill Penny about this older, experienced, engineering-speaking, guy to add to their sales fleet?

Heck, I'll even drive my Prius to and from work instead of the BMW i3-REx <GRINS>

Bob Wilson

 

Sounds like a better fit for you would be Tesla.
And they are just as happy with you driving an i3 as a Tesla

 

yea, i'm the guy who should be selling prime vs tacoma. and, i'm already retired!

 

Nice retirement job !! I already checked with Tesla.... no discounts

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Looks like there's a few winners in the hybrid/plug-in/ EV categories, but many more losers.

Leaf not doing well at all. Seems clear to me so many people don't want a car around they can only drive about 80 miles a day without charging.

anyrate. 2016 Prius doing ok so far, but the Prius c and v are bombing so far this year.

 

That is the EV range of my BMW i3-REx works perfectly fine around town. In fact, I'm doing a week using just the free chargers ... just to make sure it can be done.

Bob Wilson

 

107 miles a day EPA. Only base trim is at 84 miles. Not sure Nissan breaks down sales by trim but our dealer said mostly 107 mile range trims get sold.

Internationally, Leaf sales are still doing well, but yeah, it's getting pretty old in the tooth. Those who love EVs are waiting for more and those in the U.S. who love cheap gas (nearly everyone else) don't give a...

 

A little unfair as some of us need to travel more than 107 miles in a given day and over 200 miles away from the SuperCharger network. The reason I bring this up is:

After looking at the charging maps along this route using Blink, ChargePoint, and PlugShare, I have no sympathy for EV-only advocates who remain blind to USA buyer requirements.

Traveling long distances is as American as the size of our country. We are an exceptionally mobile people who think little of traveling or even moving hundreds or thousands of miles away for a good job. This is reality.

Now about the VW settlement, it occurs to me that high-power, DC chargers should be located at the Interstate rest stops adjacent to each state border. Furthermore, the base chargers should have both SAE, CHAdeMO, and Tesla adapters. This encourages the States to put similar chargers further along the routes.

On a technical point, locate the DC chargers as far as possible from the restrooms with a 30 minute, time limit rule.

Bob Wilson

 

Sorry, in brevity some detail was lost, but I mentioned "nearly everyone else" so as to exclude high mpg hybrids, PHEVs, EV + range extender, etc as unfortunately these remain a pretty small group by comparison though they also care about more than their own wallets.

 

No problem as I've sometimes been a little to brief too. FYI, I went to www.fueleconomy.gov and generated this chart that shows something that has been bouncing around:

• Sad to say, no Prius Plug-in or Prius Prime ... yet
• Plug-in at #8 is my model ... (small gas tank, in and out every hour)

Bob Wilson

 

This probably brings up another point. All these variety of charging standards isn't doing the industry any good. I am an EV enthusiast and I still get confused with what will plug into what. Maybe just name changes of some of these? Not sure, but I think it can be improved.

 

Nice chart - provides a lot of comparative info/trends in one glance. It's interesting that, at least with hybrids and PHEVs, there is a positive correlation between range and mpg(e).

Is there a way to move the range label from the left y-axis to the right y-axis? At first was trying to figure out what all these EVs were that got almost 150 miles range!