Featured Is Toyota Prius hybrid simply passe now that plug-in cars are here?

a lot of us on the ev sidelines are waiting for 150 mile minimum. i think there will come a point in the near future, when sales will explode.

 

I once has a boss who said,'Great report! Can we get the summaries at the top?'

I'll see what I can do:

• Does not include Prius Plug-In nor Tesla ... just how the EPA presents the options

Bob Wilson

 

Bingo! Count me as one of those impatiently waiting.

I would like to go full BEV, but until I can get toyota reliability, at least 150-200 mile range and more widespread infrastructure (rural areas!), I'm "stuck" with Prius. Prime might be the next step for me but should I wait for the BEV onslaught in a couple years or will it be more like 7-10 years? If it's 7-10, I'll stay with Prius/Prime because my commuting days will be over then. It sure would be nice to get away from gas - and oil changes - now though.

 

Actually I was looking for a minimum of 120-130 miles. Then a used one showed up with 150 miles:

• 72 miles - EV
• 78 miles - gas

When the local Toyota dealer bracketed the price, my decision was easy:

• $33k - initial offer on 2016 Level 3+TSS-P
• $29.9k(*) - 2014 BMW with a version of TSS-P, 6440 miles and 2 yrs, 11 months of warranty
• $28.5k - final offer on 2016 Level 3+TSS-P

Bob Wilson

* - end of lease, happy accident. Added two new tires, $450.

 

i snagged one that goes 600 miles, 15 in ev and 585 in hv.

 

I'm not sure how this is a reply to what I wrote. As I said the prius prime is a welcome additon, but its got a lot more competition. Competitoin that toyota is now acknoledging with their lower production expections as was communicated on thursday. The prime is a fairly niche vehicle. It is underpowered for the american market, and lacks the 5th seat of the ford energis and the hyundai phevs. As I mentioned the idea should not be to offer a smaller battery in the volt, but to extend the voltec platform to other cars. The volt is the second best selling plug-in in north america right now, but the excitement is for the tesla model 3 and Y (midsized sedan, and small SUV)

As stated many times tax credits are to get battery tech over the hump. Tax credits have been used for over a decade in Japan to push hybrids, and they don't have much market share other than the prius anywhere else. Why the rush. Model 3 should definitely have mainstream (hundreds of thousands a year) volume. The prime who knows, 60,000 was the estimate, but I don't think it will happen. The volt is niche 30,000. GM needs to leverage the tech.

I'm not sure who you are criticizing here. GM has a niche vehicle that is profitable. Why kill it. Expand it, and use the tech on a higher volume CUV. They are already building a bev based on the tech, the bolt, but this is a niche also. Toyota is planning a niche vehicle. I welcome it. I think it will be more sucessful than their prius phv or mirai or the multitude of other niche vehicles they have put out. I think toyota can learn from the prime and tesla's success.

 

Obviously. You view only the plug-in offerings as the entire market.

You actually agree with me on several points, but conveying that has been a challenge due to the perspective difference. It's further complicated by so many vague references too.

What changed since the 60,000 for first-year production announced 3 months ago?

 

The delay in introduction.

"Toyota will reduce initial production of the model although output will eventually pick up according to demand, a spokesman said today." -
Toyota will delay launch of new plug-in Prius in Japan

Reducing production numbers is acknowledging that the demand for their initial production projection isn't there.

 

That may be a little unfair. It could be higher profit margins on hybrids vs PiP. It could be supplier limitations. These decisions are often made in closed, war-rooms, and we shouldn't be like click-bait, "24/7", with speculations.

Bob Wilson

 

Read What I wrote. I never said that. I said that that I did not believe that specifically. Still you persist in this, perhaps, I can not write any more clearly for you to understand.

As mentioned in the post you replied to with you answer. The tesla model 3 and model Y seem to have captured the imaginations of many and are in high selling segments. These appear to be the future volume of plug-ins if telsa actually manages to build them well. Everyone else will be playing catch up.

NO! I never said that plug-ins need to play in a small niche. I said the volt and prius prime are niche cars. That is very different. Niche cars can be very profitable, and can teach the car maker many leasons to be applied to the fleet.

My references were quite specific, yet you don't seem to understand them. You seemed to be arguing against my points with things I either implied or said directly. It just didn't make much sense john.

Nothing changed in the market. These numbers seemed like a big stretch when toyota announced them. Last week they said they would make fewer, but didn't give a specific number. I think that is more realistic. Again toyota could easily sell this many, but to do so would require a lot of dealer training and competitive prices, and this might cannibalize the prius liftback sales. I don't think it will happen, but it would be great for the plug-in market if they did that. In north america the goal of the 60,000 was 30,000 or 2500/month. 2500 is the number of volts gm sold last month. The US goal IMHO is much easier than the world wide goal.

Toyota has a very solid supply chain in Japan. I'm sure the batteries and seats, the main units that are different than the prius liftback can easily be supplied. No conspiracy needed. They greatly over estimated japanese sales of the prius phv, and they are pulling back their forecast to be more realistic. If they somehow blow it away, all the better, but Japanese incentives favor hybrids like the aqua over the prime.

 

If the quote didn't mention demand, and other reports on the delay for Japanese introduction state it wasn't because of supply issues, I'd agree with you.

Toyota's initial production figure of 30k for North America was around the number of Model S's sold here. Their most likely means they expect it to be closer to the number of Volts.

I thought the hybrid incentives in Japan had ended.

 

sort of .......

Hybrids break into the Japanese market (July 2015 update) | International Council on Clean Transportation
In reality - you need to kill hev subsidies if you need to give a lot of money to the way more expensive japanese hydrogen cars. So hybrid incentives are killed and then the amount for a fuel cell car gets 3X as much incentive money
Want $30,000 Off Your Green Car? Head to Japan - Bloomberg
And if the scheme works, they will be buying a lot of tons of australian coal for the hydrogen Reformation. It's green, and it's black

.

 

As the article hill linked above notes, the direct hybrid subsidies have ended. The tax policies though still benefit highly efficient vehicles. It mentioned

I'm sure the numbers have changed but the $1887 tax breaks are still there, but the direct subsidy is gone. Gasoline is also taxed more costing about $4.25 in japan. When you add gas prices to the tax breaks hybrids get a boost. Phev's get similar incentives to hybrids, but given the much shorter trips that japanese drivers take, this favors hybrids. Japan has a fast charging network that is greatly government subsidized. This helps cars like the leaf, but the prime does not have fast charge capabilities.

 

true for the USA - but in japan ... ;

2017 Toyota Prius Prime (Plug-In) Overview With Tons Of Photos And Videos
Seems crazy with such a small battery, but maybe it has a huge buffer.
.

 

It has been reported that maybe half the households in Japan only get 100W, 6amp service. Even a small battery, like in the Prime, will take a decent chunk of time to charge on that since it can't support level 2 rates. So Chademo is a more desirable option there.

Then the home inverter option on the Prime and PiP we have heard about requires a Chademo plug and special EVSE to supply the house with power. You can't simply plug your stuff directly into the car. It's the same system that the Mirai PTD(P is not for plug) uses.

 

I love that last photo showing a $30,000 solution for replacing a thermos.

 

<GERRRRRRRRR>

November 2005, Gen-1 Prius, 1 kW, customer designed and implemented, power inverter.

Bob Wilson

 

While cheaper and more practical, Bob, your solution adds equipment and cost to the car to provide power for the home during emergencies.

From what I gleaned, to get the home power option in the Prime, PiP, Mirai, and even Leaf, the only equipment needed on the car is a Chademo charger. A specialized EVSE using the Chademo cables is the actual inverter.