I'm looking at a '16/17 Prius 3 Touring, and I have a noob question or two

I think the Prius is a tough sell these days. First is the cheap fuel, but it also has a lot of competition. Competition that is more "normal" looking and doesn't carry the baggage that the Prius name brings along with it. I've said it many times, but the toughest thing for me to get over when buying a Prius was the name. That badge brings a lot of issues along with it, well deserved or not. Buddy of mine now wants a hybrid after repeatedly asking me about my MPG. He's seriously shopping but will not even look at a Prius. I think it's dumb myself, but I'm sure he's not the only one. When people found out I bought a Prius I immediately got all kinds of jokes thrown at me. I doubt I would have gotten even half of it if I had bought something like a Chevy Volt or a Ford C-Max.

 

Auto sales increased in June 2.4%, up 1.4% for the year. Toyota was down 5.6%. GM down 1.6%. Ford up 6.4%. Fiat Chrysler up 6.5% (sold as many as Toyota). Nissan up 13.1%. Honda up 3.2%. VW down 21.8% (down 14.6% for the year). Audi up 1%.

What we're seeing is that people are buying vehicles, but with low gas prices they are returning to large cars, SUVs and trucks. Smaller cars are in steep decline. Fiat Chrysler is a good example of this. They're up 6.5% but if you break it out by brand, Fiat is down 18.9%, Chrysler is down 19.7%. Dodge is up 3.1%, Jeep is up 17% and Ram is up 14%. The driver of sales appears to be big discounts, which are also primarily on SUVs and trucks.

 

Go into a new car sales yard here, and you'll see at least 60-70% SUVs and trucks out the front, maybe a Camry, a couple of Corollas, a Yaris and maybe ... just maybe a hybrid.

 

Trollbait - You are my "go-to guy" with technical questions.

I read this on another thread - Any comment?

Referenced John M. German's "Hybrid-Powered Vehicles Second Edition" published by SAE. It is alleged to be a book about system components, design restraints, engineering comparisons of different designs, etc. German explores the challenges to public acceptance of hybrid vehicles. The greatest challenge, of course, is cost. He does a fairly detailed cost breakdown of input powersplit designs featured by Toyota and Ford vs the parallel 2-clutch designs featured by Hyundai/Kia, VW group, Nissan, and BMW. He concludes that the parallel 2-clutch design offers most of the benefit of the input powersplit designs at much lower cost:

A quote from the book:
"...Ironically, Toyota faces a dilemma in the future. It is highly unlikely that the input powersplit system can compete with the 2-clutch parallel system in the long run. As the dominant producer of hybrids and the company that has shown the most faith in the future of hybrids, Toyota has made a huge investment in the input powersplit system. Toyota even invested over $30 million in advertising to try to establish their "brand" name for hybrids, Hybrid Synergy Drive. It will be very difficult for Toyota to admit it has invested in the wrong system and to change to the 2-clutch parallel system, but the longer it waits to make the change, the more expensive it will be. Ford is faced with the same dilemma, although to a lesser degree, as it has not invested as much in the system to date as Toyota..."

 

With the Hybrid Synergy series-parallel drive having been so ultra-reliable, I'd be surprised if TOYOTA heads in a different direction in a hurry, at least in the non-Plug-In hybrids.

But, with all companies, they'll certainly have looked at all options.

Even though the 2 clutch parallel hybrid designs are different from the DSG/Powershift Dual Clutch transmissions which have had poor reliability, I suspect even if TOYOTA went to 2 clutch design, it would want to keep the name HYBRID SYNERGY going rather than mention "2 clutch" which could well scare potential customers off. The Prime has a variation on the Prius' Hybrid Synergy drive with a one way clutch incorporated between the ICE and the rest of the drive.

They could wait and see how reliable the Hyundai/Kia etc hybrids are.

 

I've heard the same. The cost advantage of the parallel hybrid is that it doesn't need motors as large as in a power-split for the same relative performance. The power-split design actually requires the motors to be over sized to some extent. Then parallel hybrids can share transmission components with ICE models.

My understanding is that clutched parallel hybrids being possible was only a recent thing. The technology to control the system at a level acceptable to a consumer just wasn't up to snuff at the time Toyota released the Prius. Honda's IMA of the time didn't have clutches, and this limited the top efficiency it could achieve.

In a PHEV, the power-split could be the better seller. The parallel has to upgrade the motor in order to achieve full EV performance. So there go the cost savings. Then that motor's output is going through a close to traditional transmission. It could actually make shifts in EV mode, which might be a detraction for someone looking for electric ride quality.