Featured I don't want an EV. I want an affordable plug-in hybrid that doesn't look stupid. Rocket science?

Good points, and yes, information these days is bipolar. One side screams that EV's are going to be the only cars on the road in 6 years and you'll be able to pick ones up for $15,000 that go 500 miles and peal out from 0 to 60 in 3 seconds, while the other side screams that EV's are in a recession and soon no one will want any EV's.

Just a question though, how old are those Leafs? Are they 10 years old or so? Because a few explinations are that either 1) you are talking about newer Leafs that by the time they're past the battery warranty they're as good as toast like the Leafs I've seen, or 2) there's something different about the environment and way cars are treated here compared to where your Leaf owning friends/family/aquantences are (I don't have a garage and it gets down to -40 °F, for an example), or 3) the two Leafs here that I've seen are the exception and they do last a long time.

I'm not sure how much statistical research was done for this article but I found it interesting:
Here's How Long A Nissan Leaf Battery Will Last Before It Needs To Be Replaced (msn.com)

Of course that could mean that the battery is on average down to 70% capacity by 10 years, which isn't bad for some people. I sold my 5-year-old leaf when it had 85% left. But the battery just wouldn't hold up in the winter, even freezing my butt off with the heater turned off and me scraping the windshield from the inside to keep driving.

 

It may in fact be rocket science, but Elon musk isn’t interested in making hybrids

 

New Crown Sport PHEV in Japan.
Toyota Launches All-New Crown Sport-type PHEV model in Japan | Toyota | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

At current exchange rate the flagship RS model is a $53K PHEV. It is cheaper than most BEV on the market. At this price, I would buy it in a heartbeat. Rumored to come to the US as a 2025 MY, but I am sure the price won't be that low.

 

BTW, I’ve been looking at ‘The Automotive Dude’ website some more. Looks like a very cool, and useful site, thanks for mentioning it.

As for your possible reasons, I would suggest a forth. 4) The two you have experience with are outliers, and Leafs last an average length of time.
One I know.of was bought about 11 years ago, 2 of them 9 years ago.
Winter will always shorten the range, of any vehicle, EV or otherwise. That range will return in the spring.
Early Leafs in hot weather states (AZ, NM, etc) got killed. Batteries died very quickly if charged to full and left sitting, or even fast charged in a hot parking lot. If an early model Leaf got sold in your area I could easily see it leading to bad results.

In the auto industry, 70% battery degradation is the point at which the pack should be replaced. Since I only need about 150 miles, I expect to be able to keep an EV with the original pack for 20 years. Barring issues with the other parts of the car.

 

I guess that prose is aimed at Japanese domestic market, and maybe a little lost in translation too? They use “joy of driving” twice in one paragraph, lol.

i think there’s a phenomena in need of a name, for corporations that are so big they’re unapproachable, and due to a lack of feedaback, their missives become unintelligible.

 

Or 5) The Leaf I owned just didn't meet my unrealistic expectations.

After all, I don't think my Leaf was defective. The Leaf had lost one bar, so it lost 15% of 84 miles (2013 Leaf SL, 24kWh). During the summer after the time it died at 30 miles in the winter I would drive over 70 miles in one direction, charge, then drive the 70 miles back, at least two times a week.

But my expectations were:

1. To be able to make this our only car. Just out of curiosity, do you know anyone who has a family of 4 that tries to make a 24kWh (84 mile or less) Nissan Leaf the only family car?? I took this Leaf and the family on road trips, once driving over 700 miles round trip. I took it everywhere. I did this in spite of the fact that I live 60 miles from the nearest next town with literally nothing in between towns. And in spite of the fact that the only time I ever went along a road with a DCQC station was that one 700 mile trip; all my charging away from home was level 2 or even level 1.
2. While I expected the range to drop in the winter I didn't expect it to drop so low. I had gotten a Leaf with a heat pump and battery heater so I could help extend range. I would freeze trying to not use the heater and trying to hypermile so I could go farther. I knew that snow and slush would hurt range. But on a day the roads were dry, and I tried not to use the heater, and I was traveling at some 25 mph to try to get as much range as possible... we, as a family, ended up stranded 30 miles from where we started. Was the Leaf defective? Was it a random glitch? Or do Leafs lose about half their range from driving in -15 °F weather in the mountains even if the roads are dry and you're don't use the heater? Why could it still go 70 miles with range to spare, no problem, the very next summer?
3. I also accounted for having to replace the battery at some point, and set $5,500 as the maximum I'd have to pay every 8 or 10 years. But I expected battery prices, if anything, to go down not up. And when the news got out that Leaf battery replacements at a dealer were going to be over $8,000 and not long after I lost my first and only bar, well, I got upset.
4. Add salt to the wound when I set up an appointment with the closest Nissan Dealer, over 70 miles away, to get another key fob, and upon arriving I was told they didn't work on EV's.

But my guess is:

1. Most 24kWh Leaf owners probably don't try to make their 75 or 84 mile range Leaf their only mode of transportation when they need it for driving 150 mile round trips two or three times a week.
2. Most Leaf owners probably don't live in the freezing cold mountains.
3. They probably don't get as upset about things that haven't actually come true yet, like having to purchase a battery.
4. They probably bought their Leaf from a dealer nearby that also works on Leafs.

As for the lady that bought a Leaf, she definitely didn't know what she was getting into. I had talked about how I loved our Leaf so much, she just went out and bought one without thinking if it was capable to go the places she wanted. When I told her that, yes, we take our Leaf to all sorts of places, but it required planning and there isn't a place to charge it for 60 miles in any direction, she suddenly had a different opinion. There's also a chance her Leaf was degraded to begin with, or it was a 2013 model, but with the 2011/2012 chemistry (they changed mid year chemistries in 2013 for the better) so maybe I lied when I said she had a lizzard battery like I did, because in reality I'm not sure. She also didn't like the idea of setting it to 80% charge like I would do whenever I didn't have plans to go out of town.

The funny thing is she and her family still use it. It isn't their only vehicle, more like the vehicle you get when there's no other option. But they still have it and use it.

 

seems to me the toyota crown phev at $53,000. is probably just the affordable no frills phev the o/p is looking for.

 

Thanks for the great details of your experience.
I will do my best to address the questions you raised.

Some general observations:

1. The estimated range estimate used in the Leaf quickly got the name ‘Guess-O-Meter’ or GOM. It was notoriously inaccurate, especially in atypical situations.
2. Yes, your expectations may have been unrealistic, but not unreasonable. With your driving patterns, and family size, and it being your only car, I never would have recommended a Leaf. It just isn’t a good car for that use case. Someone wouldn’t necessarily know that without speaking with other EV owners or having a good dealer/sales staff.

I don’t know of anyone with a Leaf as an only car, unless they are single.

Heat pumps are wonderful, but they don’t completely eliminate the winter penalty.

1. Beyond the effect of a cold soaked battery, air density goes up in the cold. The Leaf has a pretty poor coefficient of drag. As such, the cold penalty is worse than for a more aerodynamic car.
2. Going uphill also chews up range (not sure how much of a role this played as you likely went downhill as well).
3. A headwind or crosswind can impact your range.
4. Wheels that aren’t meant for cold, can cause more energy consumption even if roads are dry.

Sorry to hear about your dealer experiences. Dealers are the weak link in EV adoption. In general they don’t educate people about EVs, and some are downright hostile towards them. As you mentioned, having dealer (or manufacturer) support is critical.

Thank you again for giving me a ‘picture’ of your experience. The Leaf is a great car, but I agree, it definitely wasn’t the right tool for your needs.

 

Huh, I was wondering why @bwilson4web hadn't broken in about the i3 as a cheap alternative. Quick search found a 2015 BMW i3 with less than 43,000 miles going for $12,500. A search on Caravan has similar $mid teens findings. I'd be willing to bet their battery is much better than the Leaf battery (actually quick recaps on here and elsewhere, the BMW battery is liquid cooled). The car is carbon fiber so it doesn't rust, although I'm sure getting body work done after an accident might be an issue.

 

My 2013 Hyundai Tucson chew its engine in 2021 at 186k km (oil was changed regularly and invoices given to Hyundai as proof it wasn't negligence from our part). Hyundai said it's not part of the recall settlement and wanted $8k to install a used engine or a new bottom engine end. The car was worth $8k, so similar to your Model S story. This is not limited to EV.

 

Thanks for understanding me!

My wife still says that the Leaf was her favorite car. I really liked a lot of things about it. I admit I took it to an extreme, but I thought I had it all figured out. Every long trip I'd have all the numbers crunched on a spreadsheet I had made and had looked up all the charging stations and noted their reviews and availability.

Perhaps the biggest mistake was twice when I stopped by a certain attraction or mall to charge but only to find out it was closed. Sitting with the family in an EV for several hours while it's charging next to a closed mall isn't the most fun.

Ya I hear you. I had some friends that their used Ford Escape's transmission die after only owning it for 3 months.

But I still feel that at least I, myself, know enough about ICEV's to not necessarily get into such a situation. First of all, I can change out an engine by myself, and JDM engines on Japanese cars are rather cheap by comparison to a new engine (less than $2,000). That may also be the case for an EV, and I'm pretty sure I could change out an EV battery as long as it's not serialized like an Apple battery. But I don't see there being any JDM batteries any time in the future, and there are a lot of unknowns at this point, at least for me.

I mean, sure, I can see that there are Nissan Leaf batteries for sale on eBay for as little as $2,000, or even less. But other than milage, there's no info on their exact condition (and those are 2011 and 2012 batteries, so probably less capacity left than on a 2013). There are newer ones, I see a 2014 for $4,500, but again, no info on actual capacity left on the battery.

On a used engine I can take my scope and tell you the condition of the cylinders, I can run a leak down test, I can even take it apart and repace bearings if needed, which I've done before. But a battery... Sure, I can indentify a cell or module that has less capacity than another cell or module. But would a module swap be worth it in the long run? How would I know I'm getting a module with similar capacity as the rest of the battery?

But back on the other hand
I do feel like cars in general are becoming more like you say, the kind of product that you can go buy an $8,000 or $10,000 (USD) vehicle and the next day something major breaks on it and it's now worthless. Good buy money!

It used to be that there was a car for just about anybody who lived in a country like the USA. My first two real cars were under $1,000 each, and with those two cars I got over 12 years of driving. But even though I make more money now, if I were just purchasing an $8,000 or $10,000 car and it suddenly needed an $8,000 or $10,000 or more repair, I'd be on foot from there out! Sometimes I think that going back to my less-than-$1,000 car buying habits wouldn't be a bad idea. Even if the car doesn't make it pass the end of the month, at least I wouldn't be owing thousands on a car I can't use.

 

I've been busy ... <BAH HUMBUG> December birthdays and memories of our dead:

• 2014-2016 :: has the smaller battery which based on my history may have lost measurable capacity. Initially 72 mi EV range. Bold, my first was a 2014 that cost $29,000 in 2016.
• 2017-2018 :: have a ~50% larger battery, mine benchmarked 106 mi EV range. Bold, my second is a 2017 that cost $15,000 August 2023 found at a Toyota dealer whose BMW i3 knowledge matches their EV knowledge.
• 2019-2022 :: largest battery and other 'performance' tweaks. No experience.
• Dumb-Smart Cruise Control :: the ones with two columns of three buttons on the left steering wheel strut have distance sensed, dynamic cruise control. Excellent for calmer driving as it keeps following distances safe but it is subject to false object detection. Dumb cruise control lacks to buttons on the right side of columns used for precise following distance control.
• Range extender engine :: a must have, gives 88 mi gas range using mid-grade gas. Optimum use requires coding as the default starts at 6% SOC. Coding allows manual enable of the REx at 75% allowing the battery power to gas station within ~50 miles. Sustains charge @70 mph but does not add to battery SOC ... but there is a regenerative trick in hill country.
• OBD adapter WiFi/Bluetooth :: using "BIMMERCODE" expand the usable gas tank from 1.9 to 2.3 gallons and early enable of the REx at 75% SOC. Also add tire temperature to pressure. Use with "BIMMERLINK" to read diagnostic codes.
• ~180 HP for ~2,900 lbs - a pocket rocket with BMW steering.
• 2" receiver hitch :: perfect for a rear platform for more payload. Wiring for trailer lights is tricky, consider wireless trailer electronics. Easily handles a 4x8 trailer to transport plywood or other oversized loads.
• Second key fob :: dealer only, ~$700. It came with two but used ones often have just one.
• Excellent user forum, like PriusChat but technical: https://www.mybmwi3.com/forums/

Well that is the short version. <GRINS>

I bought the second, 2017 BMW i3-REx to be my City car, a spare for the Tesla, and relieve the Tesla from avoidable battery degradation. AutoPilot and Full Self Driving remains in 'beta' which is ~99% of what is needed. But the Level 2 nags are starting to piss me off. On the interstate roads, few opportunities for a nag.

My Tesla is beyond all warrantees so I am in self-maintenance mode. Some of the ordinary car things can take time to repair and may require a tool or parts I don't have. The BMW keeps me mobil to keep the house running.

My Tesla battery after 120,000 miles is roughly down ~90% with estimated 215 mi range from the original 240 mi. The local Tesla service department prices a replacement battery at $15,000 ... what I paid for the 2017 BMW i3-REx.

Around town, the BMW i3-REx is a 'pocket rocket'. The short wheel base, low center of gravity, and BMW handling, it blows away ordinary traffic. A small, 4-seater, easy to park and there is no "B" pillar so easy loading of large objects. But on imperfect streets, subject "rocking horse" ride. A City car with Highway privileges.

The Tesla Model 3 is my road warrior car. Long wheel base handles bad roads better than the BMW. AutoPilot and Full Self Driving even in 'beta' makes it a great car by reducing the driver load.

Bob Wilson

 

It still hasn't really hit the industry yet, but there is a bit of a reckoning coming.

Nobody wants a used battery, more or less. Not everyone realizes this yet, and there is always money to be made from the clueless.

So we see people still applying elevated prices to vehicles with old used-up batteries, but eventually this will pass.

 

Outside of old leaves, what ev’s have used up batteries?

 

Aha, but how should we define "used up?"

The point is, the market is still behaving very irrationally due to shortages. Cars (especially EVs) are not depreciating anywhere near as much as they would without that pressure.

I think we'll see much more appropriate depreciation curves applied to their values once there's better parity between supply and demand. Also by then more people will know more about battery life cycles.

 

I agree the whole auto market is overvalued, but I think we already have a good handle on battery longevity.
When you eliminate the social media hype, most ev’s have a normal life left in them .
If anything, the batteries outlast the rest of the car.

 

The question is when.

That may be, but I'm not convinced yet.

It would be nice to have some evidence, but right now you get either one side or the other, EV enthusiasts: who are convinced that EV's are perfect and infallable, and EV haters: who are convinced that EV's are going to cause carmaggedon. The enthuiasts will point out those few EV's that have reached 200k, 300k or even 400k and blanket state that all EV's can do that. The haters will point out those few EV's that die at just a couple dozen thousand miles and blanket state that all EV's are going to just suddenly die a terrible, premature death and will do so when you least expect it.

 

Unfortunately I think the electrics would be the last to calm down, and no matter what, this is a slow thing.

It'll be years.

 

or: people who quietly fit in the middle,
many people who don't really care either way and go about their lives - and simply pick the best value mode of transportation that suits their lifestyle with no drama involved in the decision.

 

i think if you look around, you can find a wealth of information, testing and data on battery longevity.
you can't go to enthusiast forums or wall steet for unbiased information though.