Featured Hybrids offer fastest route to reduce CO2, says Emissions Analytics

Make the BEV drivetrain (including battery) slightly cheaper than the ICE + fuel tank it is replacing, and it will work itself out.

I don't know how you tell an industry to leave an eye-watering amount of profit on the table, or even go into the red to get this done...

 

Generally - you gotta spend a lot, to get a lot. Think Hoover Dam, moonshot, gigafactory.
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A Nightmare On Main St.

 

that's impressive. someone is making america great again!

 

Not so much as these types of graphs are really a proxy for coal burning, which has been decreasing in the US since around 2008:


Many countries could make substantial progress towards their Paris agreement targets just by shutting down every coal-fired power plant.

 

I don't think to get to 40% market share, up front costs of a plug-in needs to get lower than an ice vehicle. After all smart phones are a lot more expensive than land line phones but most of us prefer and pay for those smart phones.

I say 40% because 1) That would be huge in reducing oil consumption and air pollution, 2) there are classes of vehicles that simply would not be better as a plug-in, 3) infrastructure, 4) mega commuters.

Come 2030 if you still are using pure ice for your profits, it is likely you are selling outside of north america and china the 2 biggest markets and you are rapidly losing market share in those markets or never had it.

If we look out to 2025, if we assume battery prices will fall from last years $176/kwh to around $100/kwh, a 300 mile 75 kwh bev would cost about $7500 more to manufacture than one with an inexpensive 4 cylinder engine. I don't think you ever get down to chevy spark territory ($15,000 msrp) but few want those cars anyway. If a car manufacturer wanted to build it and keep the same profitability you could build a bev like the spark but with v6 power and 135 mpge efficiency for about $22,500. Still people would rather get a $30K car or $35K suv. It can charge in your garage, etc. In the US the camry is the best selling car. A camry le is $24,600 - the hybrid 28,400 and the v6 se $34,300 also unlike the spark the camry is highly profitable. Go out to 2025 toyota could probably sell a bev on its new platform like the camry for $32,000 with 300 mile range and better handling and acceleration than the V6. Cost to fuel for most of the US would be lower than the hybrid let alone the V6. By 2025 hopefully more than tesla will have good L3 chargers for long trips. Also maintenance costs should also be lower but that is still to be determined.

Then there is phevs. A small pack 12 kwh (prime is 8.8 kwh) will probably cost about $1500 more than that hybrid, and hybrid costs should fall by then. That will likely be the end of the full hybrid in most markets, although mild hybrids these 48V systems will likely grow rapidly. People likely would pay $2000 more to fill with less expensive fuel at home than go to gas stations. I can see this type being major for pick up trucks and suvs.

That is probably the crossing point in the US - 2025, JPM estimates about 7% plug-ins then versus the 2% today. Crossing point in china may be as early as next year given government incentives. Last year china had 4% plug-in in their market.

 

I might be nit-picking but I don't know that this is a great example. In my circle I've noticed that the smartphone budget is largely carved out of what was a desktop or laptop computer budget, and that's reasonable because the smartphone can partially replace both a dumb phone and a laptop.

I'd be on board with paying more for the family car if the new one could partially eliminate some other household expenditure.

 

The cost to the household budget for a car is greater than the vehicle's price. The running costs for an ICE car will be hundreds to thousands more than a BEV. The total ownership costs of a BEV likely match that of a ICE car in Europe already.

 

China doesn't give a rip about CO2. It's the particulate that they ARE coping with, as it creates serious health problems for their smart people that are busy building better spy technology.
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I guess I don't see it the way others might because I've already hugely minimized what I spend on maintenance & repair through DIY.

When a brake job is $14 and an oil change is $11 it kind of fades into the background.

 

China is aiming to be the first successful application of nuclear fusion, aka "artificial sun." If successful it will provide unlimited electric power with no hazardous waste. No more need for fossil fuels. Dramatic reduction in pollution and greenhouse gases. World domination.

HL-2M Tokamak device: China to launch artificial sun device

 

I'm with you on that, but it isn't so for many, and even with DIY maintenance, the difference in fuel costs can be great.

 

That was my last 50+ years - did maintenance on Dad's cars and then on mine - but now, with arthritis, bursitis (and other itis-es I suspect) and other issues - I'm not doing much at all - that's why about 15yrs ago I reverted to new cars - and PRIUS attracted me as being very low maintenance.

 

Oh, that's absolutely true. It just so happens that one of the worst particulate air pollutant emitter (e.g. coal) also is a huge CO2 emitter.

 

If I lived in 'straya I'd probably pick up a V8 'ute and get my cattle dog to do some of the maintenance.

 

ok, but are those countries major players? Mediocre players? Or are they minor players. The fact that Peru, Somalia, Pakistan, Micronesia, Madagascar etc don't care about hybrids, really doesn't put much of a ripple in things. Face it, China is where it's at, and they want to go Electric.

..... being on the CO2 fence - efficiency & economy to me (&many) is more important, than CO2. The beauty is, when plugin efficiency & economy are the main tool, CO2, particulate, & C0 all follow a fast downward spiral. A 5 day round trip solar recharged commute of 38 miles yields a whopping commute expense of 28¢/day, via slight hypermiling @ 6miles/kWh.
If it weren't for So Cal Edison taxes & dishonest leveraging of forward meter movement, we would have NetZero for both the home and 2 cars, thus, a nominal automotive expense .... & the blah blah CO2 & whatever follows.

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You mean one of these - SUZUKI Mighty Boy - with a V8? (must be rear wheel drive judging by the smoke).


Neighbour used to have one - 360cc engine I think (or 600?) - but had a big V8 sign on the back. He reckoned he'll get a Great Dane to sit in the back - but never did.

 

Not in every area in the US. I pay more for electricity than gasoline for the same distance traveled EV vs HV on PRIME.

 

the operative words were, "can be great" ... regardless of what the utility company wants to rip off from you. Running solar that paid for itself in 6 years, the cost is virtually free to us now , to store PV electrons in our cars.
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