Featured How I think

Let's look at the phases (which I will attempt to define) :

Phase-1 2012 to 2016
Gaso Prices- High
Plug In Federal/State Credits- High
Electrical cost -Low
Plug-In Availability - Limited to smaller cargo space cars (eg; Volt) or expensive Tesla's

Phase-2 2016 to 2019
Gaso Prices- low to Moderate
Plug In Federal/State Credits- High
Electrical cost -Low
Plug-In Availability - better choices but still not meeting the market sweet spot of demand (SUV-era)

Phase-3 2019+
Gaso Prices- ?
Plug In Federal/State Credits- Lower?
Electrical cost - ?
Plug-In Availability -??

In theory something like Prius Prime with a chassis designed to hide the bigger battery and give more cargo space *wins*, but if and only if the incentives (to automakers/buyers) keep the PHEV vehcile costs comparable the equivalent non-PHEV version.

 

Warning: personal opinion ahead

20 years ago the Prius was a success because environmentally-minded consumers of the day were thrilled to find a car that used less resources and got more from less.

The young environmentally-minded consumer of today doesn't want or need a car to begin with, so the new challenge for builders of eco-cars is to figure out how to sell their machines to everyone else.

I think there was another group that bought the Prius because it was the coolest techno-gadget around, and now they're off buying Teslas for the same reason.

I think there was a third group that bought whatever was required to gain solo access to California carpool lanes. Didn't matter if it ran on electricity, oil or the harvested organs of innocent children... as long as it qualified for a sticker.

But back to the point: If today's green gang has relatively little need for cars, how can green carmakers attract the business of everyone still driving?

 

A) Lots of young folks are buying cars. Perhaps not as many as in the past, but still plenty.

B) That formula hasn’t changed for the most part. Build a car that is convenient, fast, quiet, sporty, handles well, has at least 12 cup holders, inexpensive to fuel, inexpensive to buy, and is reliable. Not every shopper requires every aspect, and in the same order of priority, but those are the big ones.

 

um, you missed pip in phase one

 

Except for the cup holders, your list doesn't explain mini vans.
And pickups aren't explained either I don't think.

Mike

 

Well, the comment I was replying to, as well as my own statement was focused on cars.
I was not attempting to explain SUVs or pickups, although I hope we get more electric versions of both soon.

 

vehicles are like houses, continually enlarging

 

When it comes to pick up trucks, I definitely see a phev being more ideal than a straight bev. A 40 kwh will add about 600 lbs, whereas to get 200 mile range you probably need triple that and triple the weight, which will hurt payload and towing. 40 kwh of batteries would probably let a atkinson 3L with cylinder deactivation provide the power and acceleration of a 6L V8 while getting rid of 80% of the gasoline necessary.

Here is a 60 kwh phev pick up - but they reserve a heafty 20 kwh to go in hybrid mode. My guess is you could have a decent 40 kwh battery go 70 miles aer, if it was as reliable as the tesla batteries.
A $52,000 plug-in electric pickup truck w/ range extender receives over 5,000 fleet orders, opens reservation to the public | Electrek

Ford looks like they will have their phev f-series for the 2020 my.
2020 Ford F-150 Plug-In Hybrid: Spied - PickupTrucks.com News

 

I watched the video and wondered how EVs can take over the roads of America if they are not first on the dealer lots? The local Chevy dealer might have had a Bolt on the lot, but who can afford it? Toyota; Hybrids, plug in Hybrids, no EVs yet, after what they did to the Gen 4 prius (looks) I am not surprised! Honda is dipping a toe in the water with their Hybrids and EV. Bring out an affordable EV that looks like other cars and or cross-overs, 200 mile range to give a usable 120 miles in any conditions and watch them sell. Plug in Hybrids are clever and over complicated for the majority of people that don't go anywhere anyway.

 

This is why Tesla refused to use the standard Dealer model. The Dealers seem to be proving them right, as most simply don’t sell EVs, even if they have them.
As for “who can afford it “[the Bolt]? A lot more people than choose to buy a hybrid.

 

I was very careful with my wording, but apparently was unclear.
I did not mean more people are buying Bolts than are buying hybrids.
I am stating more people could afford to buy a Bolt (which I would estimate somewhere between 25% to 40% of car buyers) than the number of people who choose to buy a hybrid (which is a bit under 3%).

 

. . . . . until the final one . . . . that comes with pallbearer handles on the sides.

and that ratio of hybrids to plugins is continuing upwards - WAY faster than the initial growth of hybrids ever did

.

 

you can pick one up around here for 22k net, not sure about option comparisons.

 

i think many people are still unsure about bev range vs hybrids. that will slowly change.

 

Unless it's an urn, then you're back to compacts again.

 

<record scratch>

on the old 20/4/10 rule that's a $6000 down payment on ~$600/mo for the car incl. typical insurance for 48 months; and someone earning $72k per year or more would pass this.

I'm just curious, are you using a similar idea of affordability?

(This assumes the base model at $30k after the federal rebate, with the original price at $37500)

 

Nope, much less scientific, which is why I had such a wide spread. I just figured the cost of the Bolt was slightly above the median price of a new car ($33k).
In any event, I am sure it is much higher than 3% of the auto market share