Featured Honda CEO Doesn't See Dramatic Increase In EVs

A little over a month ago, when TSLA stock was in the mid 350's (up from 202!), the company's valuation put them at the third most valuable automotive company in the world, just behind GM and VW (by valuation - not sales). That was then. Now, with Tesla trading in the mid 450's, I wonder if they have actually overtaken either of those. Certainly, if things keep going up for the stock, becoming number one isn't at all un-achievable this year.

The little company is building vehicles in earnest currently on two continents, and very very soon three. What they are looking to do with Giga4 (Germany) is beyond Freemont and China combined. Freemont just ran out of room to make anything beyond the model Y. That could lead to mega expansions at Giga1 (Reno) or building another, Giga5 in North America.

Just some astounding progress from a "little company" that everyone said would be "out of business and bankrupt really soon."

EDIT: and remember, VW just announced they would send no EV's here, because North America isn't ready for EV's and not enough customers would buy them. Either that statement is foolish or they have just admitted that Tesla is so far ahead of the number two EV contender that they just bailed from the game altogether, or are retrenching their efforts to come out of hiding another day. Just might be too late.

GM's Bolt goes backwards in sales, in yet another quarter. New GM EV models only now currently headed for China. So, GM can't play on the same turf here anymore, much. China, in the near future, will be the most interesting playing field for EV's and the future of transportation. How it goes there, will be how it happens everywhere else in about 2035.

 

I'm seriously considering buying a Honda Clarity PHEV. Not that Honda wants to sell me one. It is really a toe-in-the water effort for them. Maybe even just a compliance car.

But Tesla is just not on my reasonable purchase list. First off my house is 1957 vintage, which means that the electrical upgrade is a major hassle. I'd need a replacement power line from the pole, a new main electrical box, plus the usual new wiring to the garage. My solar panels have already usurped the dryer outlet wiring.

Prius Prime has its good points, but the styling and retrofit battery treatment sucks. I like the styling and space utilization of my 2006 Gen2. The Prime styling is a negative, and the lack of a rear wiper would seem to be solvable only by replacing the hatch with an ordinary one.

The Honda Clarity PHEV gets about the same mileage as my 2006 Gen2 Prius. So it's not as good as a current Prius, but amazingly good for the vehicle size. It gets about 50 miles EV, and another 300 miles on gas if necessary. I can upgrade the garage to 240V, 20 amp without too many handstands. The car can utilize 240V, 32 amp, but the house chokes on that much.

I think that Honda has learned enough about batteries. The Clarity has liquid cooled batteries, which should fix their earlier battery problems. The car has a skateboard battery, unlike the Prime's take half your trunk design. Next gen Prius will probably do the same, but they haven't yet.

If Tesla wants my business, they'll have to open up their design and service to third parties (like ME in particular). Who is going to service a 16 year old Tesla? Certainly not their current service centers with their pricing.

A friend took his Tesla to Yellowstone. No cell service, and no charging infrastructure he could find. He managed to get permission to use a power outlet in a parking lot. When he tried using another outlet, the police gave him a ticket for "misapplication of resources". Seems he "stole" about a dollar's worth of electricity. Last I heard he was going to fly back to contest the ticket in court. So he's a missionary and willing to fight the good fight. I can honor him without taking on the same fight.

So my current choices are 1) keep the 2006 with 150K, 2) Clarity PHEV, and 3) Prime. Default is just keep plugging with the 2006.

 

Honestly, for any PHEV with 50 miles or less EV range, a level 1 charger (aka 110/120V, 12A) is probably sufficient. Level 1 chargers will get you roughly 4-5 mi/hr of EV range, which means the Clarity PHEV would take roughly 10-12 hrs to charge from empty. That should cover your overnight charging and most of your work day (presuming you use up all your EV range going to work and only work 8 hrs). If you don't fully use your charge, then it is more than enough.

The truth is that, unless your daily commute is 50+ miles one way, a level 1 charger is likely sufficient for your needs even in a pure EV.

 

Unless VW cancelled some plans, and they are currently upgraded a Tennessee plant to make them, we will get a BEV from them in a couple of years. Regardless of what marketing says, the fact is that North America is just the third market for plug ins(which EV opponents seem to miss), and most car companies are going to ship their products to China and Europe first. It is the same mechanic that has California getting hybrids and plug ins before the rest of the country.

I figure a level 1 EVSE is good for 40 miles of range charging overnight at home. That is a conservative estimate allowing for getting home late.

With a 61 mile round trip commute, a BEV with the range of something like an Ioniq Electric would be plenty, but would require a level 2 EVSE. So I've put a used Bolt at the top of my list as I can use Level 1 to cover my 5 day work week with it.

 

Rob,
Of course if you install any L2 charger it can work in a Tesla. Or you can just plug into a 120v as well. And you have fast superchargers nearby.
Yes, working on your own Tesla might be an issue...but there is a semi-secret API that ~allows 3rd party phone apps. Is this on any other car? Rumor: they might make this into a real SDK.

But the Clarity is nice...I know a couple of people who like them.
As for Yellowstone...when was this? There are 8 supercharger stalls in Jackson, WY.
The map in the car shows you where all nearby superchargers are and you pretty much have to go through Jackson to get there (60 miles away) or Idaho Falls.

Mike

 

I'm looking at what happens with a post-warranty Tesla. Say a $1500 circuit board has a failure of a $15 flash memory chip (current example). In warranty, just an irritation. Out of warranty, the infrastructure is just starting to develop, no thanks to Tesla. Somebody is going to get rich doing component level repairs of those expensive circuit boards. Think I'll wait till they're established.

Best compromise I see currently. Be a lot better if Honda actually wanted to sell them. It's practically like trying to buy a Prime in Florida.

Ah, Jackson. The only place I've been where the local free newspaper has ads by not only dog walkers, but daily cleanup service for the dog's back yards. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few personal superchargers there.

Must have been this last summer since my friend hadn't gone to court yet. His problem was that he was too dependent on cell service for all the map data. He ended up going into businesses asking where he could plug in his Tesla. He did get home, so there obviously was a solution. But it didn't show up on the screen in his car. The car needs a local database for places where cell service doesn't work.

 

Since about 2014 navigation downloads maps and stores them in the car.
Originally, it would download the maps of your destination, so before going on a trip, I’d set it as a destination and be good to go.

Not sure if it works the same way now or differently.

 

I'm sure he has figured out what he should have done. But the story remains that he was in Yellowstone nearly out of power and got a ticket for his attempts at finding some. Two problems. Difficulty finding power, and police with a hostile attitude toward a Tesla owner in the predicament. And depending on the map technology in an isolated area didn't work.

 

A lot of us are still finding out what we should have done with the / our Prime(s). lol - no offences on the property line - lol

 

this must not have been too recent, as we took our Model X to Yellowstone (& Flathead valley MT & Park City Utah, etc) as have many others. even in the mid range Model 3 & the map below showing about 150 miles across .... you'd just have to be careless to not have to rely on a 120v outlet;



Note; the orange icons are either DC quick chargers or Superchargers. Sure, 5 years ago? You might be S.O.L. - but Tesla's on board map tell you where you need to charge, versus when you're about to likely commit stupidity. BTW, the shot below was taken near Custer's last stand;


.

 

I think I'm having difficulty with my sarcasm detector. The actions you've ascribed to this guy make him sound like a dribbling idiot with serious boundary issues yet you refer to him as your 'friend' so I don't think I'm decoding it all correctly.

 

I assure you he's a competent engineer and EV advocate. My take on it all is that he got sucked into the technology by living in an area with a well developed EV infrastructure. The problem occurred when he traveled to the outback where the cell service and EV presence is not a given.

I have another friend who goes ocean sailing. He carries paper maps, a compass, sextant, and knows how to use them. When I asked about the last time he used them, he replied only as training. The GPS is a far better device, as long as it works.

 

Actually, relying on GPS (the actual satellite signal) isn't a bad idea. It is very reliable. You still want to know how to navigate, though.
But there are too many "services" that rely on a working cell signal. I think that companies should have a way of telling you what needs an actual cell signal and a fallback mode of some kind...but this is unlikely to happen since so many "products" want to show you ads..

Mike