Here is VW's 5-10 yr vision. What is Toyota's?

i think we can all agree that plug ins are a bridge technology.

 

Exactly. The problem is this: how long is the bridge?

 

As with all (or at least almost all) bridges, long enough to get to where you're going.

Hopefully the hybrid bridge won't look like this forever.
bridge to nowhere - Google Search

 

Until batteries don't suck anymore (need to be 5x-10x better than today for BEVs to be truly practical).

 

EVs don't have to recharge as quickly as an ICE can take on fuel and they don't have to go as far either before they replace a significant number of gasoline vehicles. All EVs have to do is have a lower overall cost of ownership than an ICE to put a significant dent in ICE ownership.

I don't get the insistence of some people to dream up the wrong job (frequent long distance travel) for the tool (EV). There already exists the right job for the right tool; and it's by far the most common job (short trip distance).

 

Very simple - if a car can't serve all my needs, I have to have another car. Money, hassle and storage space limits the number of cars I can have.

 

Wait! . . . You mean it's okay for the 400,000 people on the model 3 waitlist to think differently from "my needs" ? Now i'm confused ...

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400,000 out of 100,000,000 is a niche. I'm talking about use by the majority of users the way word processing overtook type writers, commercial jets overtook ICE-prop planes, flat screens overtook CRTs, etc.

 

Wait - you mean there are 100 million buyers each year of ice? Who knew!
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Exactly, but when will that happen? Just exactly how long is that bridge? How can that time frame be predicted? These are all the same question, and the answer isn't known. But that answer has a huge impact on planning car purchases over the next few years. In other words, choosing to buy a hybrid, a phev, or a Bev now, or one of which those in the near future, or waiting several more years to make that decision, are all aspects of that answer that are difficult to assess at this point.

 

Actually, the number is something line 40 million.

 

300 million personally owned automobiles. Musk isn't selling 400,000 Model 3's per year any time soon.

 

Who knows.

 

What about how SSDs consumed hard drive market share? SSDs were viable replacements to hard drives back in 2008, but they still haven't overtaken HD sales despite being much faster, power efficient, and reliable. It takes time for people to warm up to the idea of new technology, and for technology to catch up to the demands of the consumer. Back in 2008 I predicted SSDs would overtake HD sales by 2010 due to the huge reliability and performance benefits, but I was way off in my prediction.

SSDs will overtake HD sales despite having lower capacity and higher cost. They are just that much better for the majority of people that don't need several TBs of storage. In the same way, EVs will slowly overtake ICE sales because the benefits of reliability, performance, and cost of ownership will win consumers over.

Assessing total cost of ownership is fairly straight forward, so doing the calculus on which vehicle makes sense is possible now. I can easily see that from a financial and convenience standpoint, it makes sense for me to own my Prius and purchase a used Leaf. The Leaf easily covers the usual commuting, groceries, and around town trips, while the Prius covers longer trips and serves as a second vehicle when both my wife and I need to drive at the same time.

The only thing preventing me from replacing my Acura with a Leaf now is that I am starting a new job and will receive a company vehicle. Now I have no incentive to reduce fuel consumption.

This thread is about 5-10 year vision, which is the time frame I would expect it would take for EVs to reach 40% market share.

 

So buying a prime would be pointless, if in fact 5-10 years from now EVs are commonly accepted, destroying Prime's resale value. In that case, toyota better be working on a Bev because Prime's lifespan may be very short.

 

If someone is buying a car for resale value, they have their priorities wrong. I buy a vehicle for utility, not for investment purposes.

The Prime might be the perfect vehicle for a single vehicle household, or as the ICE equipped vehicle in a multi-car househould.

 

That's the same analogy I use. It's quite clear that it will happen, but will take far longer than anyone imagines (except us).

It's the same reason we exploded with outrage upon the "stop gap" anti-hybrid campaign all those years ago. We knew the misleading of only being temporary meant quite a number of generations would still be hybrid, despite an inevitable end.

Eventually, we'll all be replaced too. Gasp!

No. It takes several lifecycles to finally get the last to let go. A lifecycle the length of time a vehicle remains in service. That's somewhere between 10 to 12 years now. If it takes at least 3... ugh.

Of course, we started the push into the mainstream with gen-2 of Prius. So, we are already over a decade into it.

 

I see . . . so then the prius is a niche . . . but (to use your vernacular) then since it doesnt sell in the 40,000,000's /year - then hybrids must 'suck' too? And Peterbuilts? Harleys? 747's? More suckage because they're not the best for you? Or is it that it must work for everybody. Or is it something else .... that if something sells in the 100's of thousands - that it might just be good enough for 100's of thousands ... heck - it might actually mean it's 'perfect' for many of the 100's of thousands if users. And maybe hybrids are perfect ( or at least good enough) for some. No?
I know ... that's crazy talk ... because (as continually repeated - again and again) its not perfect for evertbody.

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The Prius is niche because it's a hybrid, yes. However, hybrids outsell BEVs by many fold because they are much more useful and provide a much better value than BEVs.

 

Because they are 6 times more expensive - much like BEVs.

They lack cost of ownership advantages and they lack the ability to do all the things that ordinary cars can do.

I expect you'll be about as much wrong about this as you were about SSDs, and for the same reason - cost and capability. SSDs are only now catching up to spinning drives as far as capability (capacity) goes, and it will take longer than 5-10 years for BEVs to catch up to conventional cars and hybrids as far as range and refueling speed goes.