GM Aims For 1,000 Chevrolet Volts On Road Before 2010

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(JimN @ Jun 26 2007, 07:55 PM) [snapback]468554[/snapback]</div>

GM's quality is on average half of Toyota's. So yes GM has worse quality but the average defects per car is now lower then one. I can deal with American car quality if they can make the Volt.

The battery would have to be more advanced then the Prius and much heavier but a Volt but could be built today for a high price. I would even buy a Volt with a half sized battery only doing 20 miles.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Darwood @ Jun 26 2007, 12:35 PM) [snapback]468397[/snapback]</div>

I did. But that's because I had already driven a Prius 33,000 miles and taken it through 2 winters in Minnesota. The technology was in the hands of consumers for 4.5 years at that point. It had established a very good real-world collection of data.

Volt is still a concept. There's lot of potential. But what if the vehicle itself isn't appealing? How long will the wait be for the next body size/style to be made available. For that matter, when will production be boosted to a mainstream quantity?

It's the real-world data that makes the difference. Questions of actual owner performance can only be answered one way... waiting an entire year after initial introduction, to collect all 4 seasons of data first. GM is well aware of that reality.

Enthusiasts have a long time to wait still. Meanwhile, the "full" hybrids continue to advance.

 

1000 GM Volts. They're again hinting that they're not really serious about anything but PR with the Volt. GM can't back stab their friends in the oil industry.

 

To clear up some battery issues from the first page....

GM are working with A123 systems for the battery. The specific power, safety, cycle-life and temperature performances of the A123 LiIon batteries have already been passed by GM's laboratories in testing at the cell and module level. The next step is to try it at the whole pack level, which shouldn't be much different, and to gauge what they should do with the warranty regarding calender life. A123 claim 10 years shouldn't be a problem, but GM want more proof before they commit to that.

The battery weight is simple to calculate. Efficient EVs go about 5 miles per kWh. The Volt is expected to have a 40 mile range. A123 allow 80% cycling. So, 10 kWh of storage is required.

The energy density of the A123 cells is 100 Wh/kg, so the 10 kWh pack would weigh 100 kg.

The power density of A123 is over 3,000 W/kg, so the 100 kg pack could put out a peak power of 300 kW = ~405 bhp, if allowed.

The ONLY issue remaining is the cost of the batteries. All of the other issues have been solved.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jun 27 2007, 05:51 AM) [snapback]468698[/snapback]</div>

IDEAL CONDITIONS ONLY!

Capacity will be reduced in the winter. Heater and A/C use will shorten range. How many people will realize that? For that matter, what will the EPA estimates say?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Jun 27 2007, 07:53 AM) [snapback]468723[/snapback]</div>

That's the first I've heard that, and it still begs for a disclaimer either way... since there is an obvious benefit to mention real-world.

But then again, how will the estimates be stated? The definition of "winter" varies dramatically depending on where you live.

Rapid acceptance is dependent upon expectations meeting reality. Clarity is essential.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jun 27 2007, 08:37 AM) [snapback]468718[/snapback]</div>

If you've got time, there is a very comprehensive report on lithium-ion costs for vehicles from an independent source (Argonne laboratories) here:

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/149.pdf

Briefly, the upshot of this analysis is that a single 18650 cell costs (at the factory) $1.70 (page 35). Today, each 18650 cell can contain 8 Wh, so it ends up as about $212 per kWh wholesale in this established, mature LiIon format.

However, the materials for the A123 batteries do not include very expensive cobalt, as it is replaced with the much cheaper (and safer/less toxic) iron phosphate. A123 claim they will eventually be cheaper than cobalt based lithium-ion, but it will take a big manufacturing volume to come close to the efficiencies of the mature billions of units per year 18650 market.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jun 27 2007, 08:37 AM) [snapback]468718[/snapback]</div>

Yes, in a word, and it is a BIG problem. The development of the nanotech battery is the single biggest development in the history of automotive evolution since the internal combusion engine. Toyota management can see that but bizarrely, GM just can't see the crushing advantage they soon could have!

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jun 27 2007, 09:16 AM) [snapback]468737[/snapback]</div>

Thank you, that was informative as always. At $2K for the battery pack, lasting 10 years, this is clearly a winner for somebody, it's just a question of who can get there first. Too bad A123 doesn't have stock (or at least, I can't find it listed anywhere).

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Topgas @ Jun 27 2007, 06:51 AM) [snapback]468697[/snapback]</div>

That would be 1000 Volts on the road before 2010. How many plugin Priuses has Toyota said will be on the road before 2010? I think the number is zero. So, does that mean that Toyota is not really serious about plugin hybrids?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Marlin @ Jun 27 2007, 01:17 PM) [snapback]468879[/snapback]</div>

Several years ago, Toyota flew Professor Andy Frank, his team and his PHEV trucks over to Japan for meetings and demonstrations with all of their top engineers and tier 1 suppliers. Since then, rumour has it that they have had a 60-mile all-electric range PHEV in beta-testing on public roads for the last two years or so. I think at least some people within Toyota are certainly serious about PHEV.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jun 27 2007, 01:05 PM) [snapback]468873[/snapback]</div>

It looks like they're still a private company. If you go to their website and check out the "Company" page, you can find out who all the investors in the company are.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Stev0 @ Jun 26 2007, 01:27 PM) [snapback]468389[/snapback]</div>

:lol: yeah, and don't forget the plant closings

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jun 27 2007, 01:34 PM) [snapback]468893[/snapback]</div>

I wasn't actually suggesting that Toyota wasn't serious about plugin hybrids. I was demonstrating the flaws in Topgas's logic. If the fact that GM is stating that they will only have only 1000 Volts on the road by 2010 is proof that they are not serious about plugin hybrids, then by the same logic, Toyota must not be serious about plugin hybrids since they won't have any by 2010. The fact that Topgas would probably believe that Toyota is serious about plugin hybrids is the very thing that exposes the flaw in his logic.

 

let's see, 1000 of 'em in three years; that's a tad under 7 cars per state per year

sounds like they have a reall challenging sales goal

 

I enjoy my Prius more than any car I have ever owned. But my passion is PHEV’s.

On one hand, I have been rooting for Toyota to come out with a PHEV on the 09 Prius, and have been thinking that “they’re going to do it, they’re going to do it!â€. But, instead, they seem to be going backwards from where I thought (hoped) they were.

I must say that I was pretty excited when on 5-11-07 I read that Masatami Takimoto, executive vice president in charge of power train development, said “the batteries technically are ready any timeâ€.

Then it came out that they weren’t going to use lithium chemistry for the battery at all, and that the above statement turned out to be premature. And, what’s this NEW discovery that Cobalt batteries may catch fire?

According to a report on Greencarcongress.com, 6-13-07,

"The kind of lithium-ion battery technology that was under consideration for use in the Prius—one based on lithium cobalt oxide—has shown a tendency to overheat and catch on fire…"

Are you kidding? Seems a bit late in the game to be going down the Cobolt path.

Meanwhile, Toyota is saying nothing definitive about PHEV’s, while GM is very open on their Volt program. To me, 1,000 Volts assume December 2010 for delivery.

I have never owned a GM product, and I’m still a big Prius fan. But if GM comes out with the Volt before Toyota comes out with a PHEV, I’m buying the Volt.

By the way, real nice attacking Volty personally. That always works when one runs out of arguments.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(George K @ Jun 27 2007, 10:52 PM) [snapback]469209[/snapback]</div>

How?

Only 20 people per state will have an opportunity.

That's 15 times less than when Prius first debuted here, back in a time where the word "hybrid" was an unknown to most people and gas was cheap. Yet despite that, there was a waiting list 6 months long.

How in the heck will GM satisfy demand with so much publicity already and plans to deliver so few? The fact that they don't seriously commit is what makes most of us crazy. For crying out loud. Go for it! Show us the intention to actually make the technology mainstream.

 

The 1K units is for 2009, not 2010.

From gm-volt.com:

"As well, he reports that GM expects to sell 1 million Volts within 5 years of launch. Certainly, Neil Zielinksi has indicated that GM intends to mass-produce the vehicle and wants to sell as many as possible."

The quote says they intend to sell 1 million of these cars within 5 years or I suppose 2015. I reckon they will have to produce more than 1K units a year in that case. The first 1K units does not constitute a true release by GM manufacturing standards. They will still be collecting reliability data and working out rinkles in their vendor chain.

I would not be surprised if they shipped over 100K units in 2010.