Gasoline could drop 50 cents/gallon by spring

petrol is the same like food and phone and air and water etc

so i think like al of these it needs to be goferment regulated to make sure the people pay a right price

 

Your greenwashing approach is interesting.

Pretending that $2.65 is cheap won't change the reality that our country has a emission & consumption problem though. In fact, many of us here just see that as denial.
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Last years national average for Regular unleaded on 4/15 was about 2.85
If you look at the historical data prices always start to rise come mid to late February and don't start to decline until October.
Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

 

We'll still have to wait and see, but the general trend is up, not down. Here's the latest report from Yahoo:

Gasoline prices are at their highest level since June, a possible preview of what the Energy Department and many analysts believe will be a record spike in pump prices this spring.
At the pump, gas prices rose 2.9 cents overnight to a national average of $3.115 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. That was the highest price since June 8.
But the current surge may not last long. While gas prices have risen sharply in recent days in response to oil's dramatic climb to a new record above $101 a barrel, gasoline supplies have grown to their highest level in 14 years.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook issued earlier this month, the Energy Department said the average price of gasoline could be around $3.40 a gallon this spring.
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Any wagers on the average price for 2009? I boldly predict $4.10

 

It is amazing how the low prices are thwarted.

The cavalry arrives at the last moment, and tramples the hero to death...

 

Gas prices have always fluctuated. Up, down, up, down, up. But the long-term trend is up. Malorn is right that supply and demand are at work. But even without a peak in supply, demand is growing exponentially as China and India industrialize. Gas will (probably) fall half a dollar or so. For a while. Then it will go up a dollar or so, then down half a dollar again, then up a dollar again.

I don't blame Malorn, however. He is a GM dealer. That means his livelihood depends on people continuing to purchase gas-guzzlers. He's got to believe gas will come down or he'd lose hope of being able to feed his family. Sometimes self-delusion is the only way to remain sane. :car: On the other hand, have you ever considered becoming a Zap Xebra dealer?

 

No Way! If anything we will see at least a 50 cent increase due to the change over to summer blend, which is more expensive to refine due to the additives needed. 87% refinery capacity is pretty much normal in the US, due to lack of newer refinerys and excess maintenaince needed on these older plants.
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I have no info to back up anything, just my gut. I think gas is supply and demand. I say it will be up to $4.00 by the end of the year. There is that idea though that as home construction comes to a halt there will be some less demand with fewer crews, trucks, semi's etc ...no I say $4.00 by the end of the year. I think we will see people seeking out jobs closer to home for less money.

 

A sound energy policy - almost by definition - will mean cheaper energy. A sound energy policy will include renewables, which will save us money in the long run (not to mention health and lives!). It will also include conservation which is the greenest, best bang-for-the-buck energy ever. A penny saved is a penny earned and all that.

 

See the problem here is that we live in a petroleum economy. Like it or not, our choice to drive a fuel (and emissions) efficient car puts us in a major, major minority. Any "policy" meant to address this will take decades to implement as manufacturers drag their feet doing the R&D to get where we all need to be. I'm all for clean(er) fuels, but its just plain silly to think that our dependance on oil/gas/petroleum will subside any time soon. And while the policy may afford us cheaper (and cleaner) energy, that will likely not translate into cheaper gasoline. Others have said it as well... we're not just dealing with our own consumption issues in relation to supply and demand, but also that of China and India.

To keep this on the correct subject for the post, I would "guess" that we'll see the standard summer creep in prices to around 3.40 - 3.50 a gallon and they will drop precipitously come around October (just in time for elections).

 

Our prices are already close to that: $3.31 at the discount stations.

Tom

 

A lot of people forget that point, that we aren't the only consumers. China is a major factor here and they are growing...supply and demand.

 

Yep, our local avg for regular unleaded is $3.25 in the Sac area. If I were going to bet, I would bet that we will see $4 somewhere in Calif by May 1. It might be here in Sac, but most likely in the SF area.

 

If he sold Zap Xebra's he wouldnt' be able to feed his family.

 

They're only part of the problem... Consider Iran. They're exporting less oil because the local demand for fuel is going through the roof. This naturally results in less oil being exported. They're not unique. As all of the developing world... developes, the demands for fuel are going to increase. This will mean that exporting countries will export less and less oil. Some will go the way of Indonesia and the United States and transition from exporters to importers. China's now an importer (I don't know if they were ever an exporter) and they're going to be the biggest source of new demand, but these other countries, when added together, probably represent a formidable amount of the increased demand.

 

What's interesting also is that Iran is mandating all cars they produce domestically (apparently they have their own car manufacturing industry) to run on natural gas, which they have larger quantities of, and it's harder to ship (saving oil for exports). There were protests early last year when they suddenly began rationing gasoline at the pumps. There's some claims Iran could pump more if they improved their infrastructure, but don't hold your breath on that one.

China imported oil early on. After their revolution, they did some exploration, made some discoveries, and by 1973 was an exporter of oil. In the early/mid 80's petroleum was their major export product, replaced by textiles in 1986. In 1993 China became a net importer of petroleum.
Mexico is an exporter, but they've hit their peak and are decreasing rapidly. As we saw with China, decreasing production and increasing local economy can rapidly change exports to imports.

 

Just wait. Won't be long before nobody can afford to buy gas any more. Then a franchise to sell electric cars will be better than a license to print $20 bills.

 

World oil prices have been on a posititively accelerating, increasing function for a while. Certainly there are perturbations in the function, but as has been noted, US demand is only part of the story and hasn't had as much impact on world-wide prices as other American actions (think recent foriegn policy). I would not be overly surprised to see another "October surprise" in time for the election that has the effect of increasing world oil prices. Any policy initiative to reduce oil prices for the US market in time for the election (which would not be surprising either) will only soften the blow temporarily.

The only thing US demand (for oil and nearly other commodity or product you can name) is doing is inexorably turning the US into a debtor nation and increasing the wealth of its creditors in Asia and the Middle East. Living beyond your means is unsustainable in the long run, but for now there are still lots of assets to strip and countries happy to oblige the US appetites.