Gasbuddy Poll: "Would you consider an electric or hybrid for your next vehicle?"

TCO from Consumer Reports or Edmunds is too variable to trust. There's really no reason why a Ford Fusion would cost more for maintenance than a Dodge Avenger. (Also what's the sample size? Anything smaller than 4000 owners (per model) is not statistically sound.)

I prefer the straight-forward simple method that is not full of uncertainty:
MSRP + sales tax
+ gasoline cost
======
Estimated cost to own. It eliminates all the variables (which really depend upon the driver's abusive or nonabusive nature, not the carmaker's skill).

 

Not sure where you came up with the fusion/avenger comparison, or the previous comment about the fiesta costing double to maintain vs. prius. CR estimates the fusion, fiesta and avenger cost the same to maintain/repair over 8 years ($3500), and the Prius / Prius C at $500 less to maintain/repair over the same period.

Also not sure where you came up with the arbitrary "4000 samples" test of statistical significance. CR gathers their data from an annual survey, which is sent out to randomly selected subscribers. Last year they collected 1.1 million responses. While they don't break it down by model, they do state that their sample distribution has generally exhibited excellent correlation to the relative number of a particular model sold in a given year. They also state that they do not report data for models that do not receive enough responses to be statistically significant.

Ignoring certain costs doesn't mean you are eliminating variability. It just means you are not estimating total cost of ownership.

 

Statistics 101: You need at least 4000 datapoint a to accurately reflect the views/experiences of 300 million people. CR claims they have good sampling but they don't back it up with any proof. So I don't trust them.

(1) I never claimed to be estimating "total" cost of ownership. It's too variable, and highly dependent on the driver. Someone who beats-up their Prius running it down dirt roads will obviously have far, far higher maintenance costs than if he did the same with a Tundra. (Or versus my easy drive on the smooth interstate.)

(2) Hence I don't trust CR TCO because they are attempting to predict future costs about the unpredictable. (3) Instead I just focus on the fixed costs that are Not variable: MSRP, sales tax, gasoline usage (based on controlled EPA lab tests). These are fixed & known costs, not guesses.