Gas $1.99/gallon this morning!!

Doesn't matter if gas gets cheap, I still rather pay 1/2 of what almost everbody else is paying. Even when gas was cheap I still rather pay $15 to go 400 mi. in my Prius instead of paying $30 to go 400 mi. in our Chevy Venture

 

It has?? I show oil demand at about 87 mb/d first qtr 2008, then steady at 86 mb/d for 2nd and 3rd qtr's 2008 and even predicted to go slightly higher to just below 88 mb/d for 4th qtr 2008.

Just a FEW percentage points variation of demand within the year 2008 (and all of 2007 only varied from slightly above 86 mb/d to just above 87 mb/d). BTW, forecast reserves and show no sign at all of dropping and forecast deliveries show no drastic declines or increases from the past few years.

No way a few percent points in demand during these years would cause oil to double and halve (and more) in that period. I believe politics (political agenda's and such) and speculation play a much larger role in the price of oil than actual supply and demand. "Peak oil" IMHO is a made up political scheme designed to scare and unite ignorant folks towards allegiance to certain political affiliations.

Rick
#4 2006

 

I went to vote early today. After I finished I went outside to wait for the wife to come pick me up. There were quite a few humongous SUVs being driven in and out of the parking lot - Denali, Tahoe, Expedition, etc. One especially caught my eye: a Jeep Grand Cherokee with two McCain/Palin stickers, one "Collin County Republican" sticker, and another that read (and I swear):

Drill Here
Drill Now
Pay Less

 

I agree Viking31. This is just a pause. We'll see $5 a gallon; the question is when but I expect within three years. Hang on to your Prius.

We saw $2.99 in Ventura, CA yesterday, first time I've seen below $3 in many months.

 

If you are willing to drive about 50 or so miles outside of Houston, you can get gas for $1.98/gallon. I don't really care; in my job, I drive 300 miles a day, so even a few cents worth can make a huge difference to me. I like having to only spend around $20 for a day's driving versus $40, but I was always paying less per mile than anyone else. Funny thing though; the entire time gas was above $3/gallon here, I saw a whole single hummer. However in the past week I've seen 10+ hummers. It also appears there are much more pickups and other SUVs on the roads. AS well as sports cars. I don't see anything wrong with it; oil is going to run out eventually; if we don't use it, other people will; if its cheap enough, why not get "good" (read: big cars) use out of it? I'm considering trying to get my hands on a Crown Vic.

 

$2.69 this am near my office here in Sacramento. Off-brand but still... Not sorry I bought my Prius, I just save even more $. Went from$24 fill-ups when I bought the car, to over $40 fill-ups and back to less than $24. Anyway you look at it, it is still a big savings over filling up the RX300 I had before.
Fernsmom:cheer2:

 

Those predictions were off all year. I've been laughing about them as they have adjusted them down each of the last several months. But what do you mention? Yep, a decline from the 1st quarter. From what I can tell, they don't even have real data populating the 3rd quarter yet (latest they show in another report is August estimates.) The 4th quarter hasn't happened yet and I expect them to erode away those numbers each month...just as they have the others.

U.S. demand is off about 5% and we aren't alone as others are beginning to cut back. At the same time the suppliers ramped up. Suppliers didn't cut back (despite OPEC quota changes) and inventory grew. The small increment in demand that could formerly not be met disappeared. The price inelasticity is extreme (as our own usage showed as prices shot upward for years.) There is however a stronger correlation of demand with global economic growth. Up until September, many still somehow believed that global recession could be avoided and therefore oil demand would not decline.

Forecasters are now predicting that the 4th quarter U.S. and several subsequent quarters will see GDP decline--in addition to the 3rd that has not yet been reported but is expected to be awful. Make your own bet about what is going to happen to oil demand as a result. (And I've got news for you, if it does as the numbers you believe predict, oil prices will rebound. )

If you believe reserves estimates I've got a bridge to nowhere that's on sale cheap! You also miss the point of peak oil. It's not that oil isn't there but that it becomes much harder to get it out so that production peaks and eventually declines. If you look at how Russia's production has plateaued and how ours has declined despite the run up, you should realize that there is truth to the premise even if the details are fuzzy. (I read an excellent write up recently about how little of the profits have been reinvested in exploration and production.)

You couldn't be more wrong. Were you not paying attention as gasoline prices tripled in the U.S. with only a minor reduction in consumption? It takes very large swings in energy price to reduce demand significantly based on price alone. That is a historical fact and well known.

I used this understanding to predict a run up in prices as we pulled out of recession 2003. Realizing we had been in a trough I anticipated rapid demand growth, setting the current price at the time as the floor. At the time the same oil industry was understimating demand growth, overestimating supply growth, and underpredicting price (they showed it declining first, then rising gently each year.) My mistake was in believing some of their supply claims, so while I predicted prices achieving about twice as high as what the industry did in 5 years, it was still only a fraction of that actually acheived.

IMHO consipiracy theories like you are espousing are for the ignorant who fail to learn the lessons of history and understand basic economics. Speculation is a symptom of a long term demand/supply imbalance, not a cause. If there had been a lot of excess supply, speculators would have rapidly been buried in a glut a year ago. Conspiracy theories are for the intellectually lazy.

 

Cheapest gas in VA right now is around $2.05 - Richmond and Norfolk areas. It is about $0.50 higher in the C'ville area. Like others I'm starting to see more SUVs on the highway. Heck, I'm even putting about 30 miles a week on the F-150 supercrew these days.

It will be interesting to see what happens after the election.

 

I paid $2.439 at Sam's in C'ville this past Sunday. It pisses me off that we're ripped off here, compared to elsewhere in the state. A little too monopolistic in a smaller town!

BUT, much better than the not so long ago >$3.50/gal!

 

Had to make a haul in the guzzler today to pick up wood, pipe, supplies for the new kitchen and topped off 8.3 gals at $2.14

Put a new set of Michelin's on while I figured out how to plumb my triple sink. See if my mileage comes up from the lower 20's.

 

Topped off tonight just for shits and giggles for $2.89.

Much better than the San Diego summer high

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Highest Recorded Average Price:[/FONT]​

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Regular Unl.[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]$4.630[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]6/19/2008[/FONT]

 

DRIVING the prius means that we still use very little fuel compared to many other cars. I dont care if the price of fuel drops.............good for us................i can't wait until i can fill up for $10/tank!!!!!!!!!!!! <sarcasm because it'll never happen> i'll still drive my prius!

 

+1

Still going to save half of what we would have spent!

 

In Tomball which is just north of Houston, gas was 2.35 a gallon two days ago. The Kroeger grocery stores have an incentive / when you purchase $100 in groceries, you get ten cents off a gallon, so fill up was at 2.25 a gallon. LOVE MY PRIUS

 

Most frightening part of this thread for me is that there are people who think this drop in gas prices is somehow permanent and demonstrates that Peak Oil is just a fantasy. And these people are allowed to vote.

In the meantime, there's no way I'm going to fill up until the price goes back up to something reasonable. Fortunately, I just filled up in September with reasonably expensive gas, so I'm good to go.

 

You have been preaching these doom and gloom scenarios as long as I can remember. I suppose you actually believe the world will flat "run out of oil". That's right, no oil at all. Never mind the price will naturally drive consumers to alternative forms of energy...

You may be young, but I remember long ago similar chicken little types decades back who predicted the end of the world from; running out of oil (it has not happened yet and never will), nuclear holocaust, overpopulation, impending ice ages, world mass famines, oh, and I almost forgot, global warming which has been changed to climate change (that's changing of the seasons for us regular folks) because temperature increases simply cannot be documented. Many of which were mere political platforms which did get people to vote one way or another. Others simply made many very wealthy.

P.T. Barnum comes to mind...

Rick
#4 2006

 

???? Your counter is based entirely that the organization of which I derive my facts, namely International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report is entirely false. Please show me where I can get accurate information which shows very significant drop off in demand that supports such recent and drastic reductions in the price of oil.

Rick
#4 2006

 

Actually it was derived from the same organization's releases over the years and recent months as well as data from the EIA. (Look up North America and you can see some large drops in demand although there is still lag--the past six weeks have not really been booked.) I've been watching both of them drag down their numbers this year. What is "false" is your understanding of what they are saying and the historical accuracy of their projections.

How low and how long oil stays down is a function of the recession, not some shadow world of speculators. People that were jumping into oil and oil stocks at over $100/bbl when we were headed for recession were not paying attention to the underlying economic cycle or to history. This same "irrational exuberance" is normal for the late stages of a run up in markets, when folks mistakenly believe they can't lose.

It's important to separate shorter cyclical trends like this from long term changes. With oil there are clear long term changes, such as the depletion of lighter crude sources and reserves. The sources left are more difficult to extract and are not as desirable of a product on average.

It's really too complex a topic to explain without you sitting here looking at the same data and recognizing which parts are not current, which are, and having a history of where the departures from reality have been in the past. It's also impossible to explain this to conspiracy theory types who believe what they want to believe. Ignore supply and demand, price inelasticity, global cycles and their relative impact on oil if you like, but I would prefer to stay in touch with reality.