Featured Forbes pits EV's against .... Everything?

I agree with that. A lot of apartment dwellers are used to buying 350+ miles of range in 6 minutes from a dizzyingly competitive market.

How far out do you suppose we are on a compatible EV?

 

These vehicles already do fit the needs of “a buyer”. They don’t meet the needs (or perceived needs) of all buyers.
EVs don’t need to meet the needs of everyone, to be bought and used by some people.

The only question is, what is the size of the market for which EVs currently work.
I propose it is much larger than the current 1% market share. I believe the current infrastructure would support between 10% and 30% of the market. Building out the infrastructure will only increase the size of the market.

 

Yeah, and many say "I get 25 MPG which is pretty good"

 

yep, and the next gas price spike won't be because of peak oil, but more subtle reasons. when? anyone's guess. doesn't look like the foreseeable future, but you never know.
anywho, americans are pretty happy with their land barges currently.

 

• Prius - gateway to efficient, lower noise, driving.
• Plug-in hybrid - gateway to half priced driving free from engine noise and fury around town.
• EV - cheap driving around town and quiet cruising, a little pricey on highway.

Bob Wilson

 

The Prius family got close to 109k sales last year. It will be lucky to reach 100k this year.

The perceived need for fast refueling is why CARB and Toyota are pushing hydrogen FCEV now. The main hurdle there is the refueling infrastructure. Getting a BEV to such quick charging is a small problem. The bigger problem is in building the infrastructure. Charger and installation costs will climb, potential locations are reduced, and so build out slows. It won't be as bad as with hydrogen. Yet we can avoid it by acknowledging that the need for such charge times is a fallacy.

Tesla once had a battery swap station between San Francisco and Los Angles that could change the pack in under two minutes. The cost was $80; comparable to that of a competitive car, if not less. People were willing to wait for a Supercharger to free up than swap the battery. Yes, the charger was "free", but even if we had the typical charger fees of others, charging still will likely come out ahead. It also avoids the headache of having to get your original battery back.

Then there will be PHEV options that must have such quick refuel times.

An older Union of Concerned Scientists report from when the Leaf was the only country wide available BEV estimated that 40% of US households could replace one of their cars with a BEV. Not sure exactly that compares to market share, but the number increases with BEV range.

 

could vs would is the obstacle. look at how many here currently wouldn't.

 

People arguing for the fact that EVs today are doable for many, how many of you live in a rented apartment? Rented house? I am guessing close to zero. Otherwise you would have a use case of EV today not working right in front of you. Many (most?) folks rent and drive. When they move from one rental to another they need to worry about the home charging situation. Folks in apartment buildings in cities are also pretty much out. I lived in a city rental for many years and every night I had to look for a parking space. It was not easy to find and I assure you it did not then nor does now have a plug. Cities are full of people like that. Forget home charging as a reason of "you don't need range or quick charging". Most people do not have access to home charging. It's that simple. But those who do definitely comprise more than 1% and that number will increase I am sure as more EV models hit the market. Maybe we'll get to 30%, but I don't think it will happen that soon. I am certainly rooting for it to happen.

 

Yep, that is why I lowered my numbers some.
We are still in the early adopter phase, and not everyone is an early adopter.
As more people see friends and neighbors with Model 3s, more people will consider it.
And many of the ‘woulds’ will become ‘coulds’.

 

A very important point, especially given how many younger commuters are living in "charge-never" circumstances.

An electric car with a quick-swap battery and a pool leasing program (you won't own any batteries) would have a pretty big impact, IMO. You could put the swap device at existing gas stations, they can get in on that stream too.

I feel like they don't need to rush into that yet though, since there's still a long way to go in getting the actual car costs competitive with what young commuters are driving now.

 

In 2014 there were 82 million single family detached homes, which means somewhere between 120 million and 160 million people of driving age inhabit those homes.

Multi unit housing buildings are building charging infrastructure. I know EV drivers who rent. True, it is less likely to be as convenient as if they owned a single family house, but these people aren’t automatically excluded.

Also, just to be clear, I don’t expect EVs to reach 30% market share next week. Yes, it will take time, especially since many manufacturers are not throwing their weight behind building or marketing EVs. I expect EVs to surpass the peak of hybrid market penetration (4%) in 2021. If other manufacturers increase their production, it could happen in 2020.

30%? Too many variables, but I am hoping 2030.

 

There is no perceived need it's real otherwise Tesla wouldn't be building out at great expense (for a small, young company) and promoting their supercharger network.

 

With the exception of Tesla, no other manufacturer understands the relationship of fast DC charging a plug-in sales. VW was fined $2B and building out an EV charging network but try to find a VW EV at the local dealer.

Bob Wilson

 

General comment: I still can't wait to meet the EV that can go head-to-head with a "commuter special," the six year old Corolla:

• 300 miles to the next "refuel"
• Next "refuel" done in 10 minutes or less
  
• Found on no-name car lots for $7k-10k apiece
• Has roughly 110k event-free miles on it, and a high probability of 100k more available.

It's an odd concept to grapple. All the energy you aren't buying from the gas pump is going to have to fit through some wires instead. Maybe not exactly, owing to the relative efficiencies of each system type, but hopefully you get the idea.

This discussion has been helpful to me. I've always generally understood that electrical infrastructure would have to be upgraded to transition to electric driving. Following everyone's posts and thinking about it has helped me begin to realize just how much work will have to be done.

Maybe Toyota isn't so crazy for swinging at this hydrogen thing. Hydrogen infrastructure buildout might wind up being faster.

 

You might want to review the PlugShare entry for Manchester TN:
PlugShare - Find Electric Vehicle Charging Locations Near You

1. No tanks or transport trucks bringing fuel or hydrogen.
2. Grid power uses well known, utility grade transformers.
3. Everything fit in about 8-10 parking spots at the far corner of the parking lot.

Bob Wilson

 

EVs and ICE vehicles do have different advantages.
I’m waiting for an ICE that can go Head-to-Head with a Bolt.

• Full tank every morning
• Very unlikely to ever need a brake change for 150,000-250,000 miles.
• Doesn’t contribute nearly as much to annual deaths due to respiratory issues.
• No need to stop in the middle of your day to refuel with carcinogenic fuel.

It is important to recognize the strengths of both vehicles. Dismissing them out of hand would of course lead to such wild conclusions as hydrogen being worth pursuing for the US market.

The Electrical infrastructure is already here, the hydrogen infrastructure is magnitudes more costly and challenging.

 

I've loaded the link and looked at it, but I'm not quite sure what you're trying to highlight here.

One thing that fairly jumps out is how much space is taken up by this system- it seems enormous compared to petro refueling.

The momentary ratio of 2 parking spaces worth of land used per car actively charging isn't so bad, but the time factor wrecks it.

 

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.
The second best time is today.

I'm absolutely sure that EVs have a bright future, although the road ahead is definitely going to be a little bumpy, and there are some deep and wide potholes that cannot be seen from where we are on the on-ramp. As much as I'm a little dubious of Tesla's strategy, I do credit them with building a car that people actually want to be seen driving and also trying to address the infrastructural challenges of driving electric. They also seem to understand that the demand for EVs 20 years from now is going to be > today's demand.
Tesla is also raising the bar for the rest of the industry, as can be seen by the availability of for-real BEVs and PHEVs instead of just a place to put an HOV sticker.

FCV's on the other hand have most of the disadvantages of ICE vehicles along with most of the disadvantages of BEVs.
I cannot fathom why people are still tinkering with them but that's another topic for another thread.....