FIRST DRIVE REPORT: 2016 TOYOTA MIRAI

True, there is no state inspection in CA. But there are smog checks. When you get your registration renewal they tell you you must get a smog check certificate sent in (by mechanic) before your renewal is allowed. (I'm a bit fuzzy on the details since I haven't had to get one in 10+ years...but they just started requiring hybrids recently).
Anyway, the DMV will know you have a FCV and they could require a dealer inspection, or similar, after 10 or 14 years, etc.

But let's not get offtrack. Hydrogen cars are probably going to fail long before then anyway. In 5 or 10 years we will have been through several new car and EV upgrade cycles. Consumer FCV probably catch get up to a critical mass of buyers/leasers in that time frame.

Mike

 

That's probably Toyota hasn't released BEV. There is no battery that can last 14+ years.

 

But they could make a killing on the batteries, and switching out batteries is a far more modular exercise than an engine or a H2 tank replacement. Dealers might not be able to pocket as much, I suppose.

 

A replacement Leaf battery is $5,000. A Leaf may or may not require one after warranty. I guess it depends on use patterns and how much you love the car and want to keep throwing money at it. Assume you change it at 7 years? That would allow the car to last to 14 years I guess. If the experience of the Prius is anything to go by, the replacement battery costs will keep on falling. How much will a Leaf pack cost in 2020?

How much are the hydrogen tanks? $50? $500 $5,000? plus installation and fitting. Oh and the ongoing inspection costs that may or may not be required.

And I could be naughty and then ask long the actual fuel cell lasts Will that ever make it to 14 years and will it hit the 100k mile mark? Or the 150k mile mark? And how much is one of those to replace? $5,000? I don't think so.

To pre-empt a respose, a Leaf (from 2013 onwards) appears to be easily hitting the 100k mile mark. A Leafer in the UK has hit 115k miles before their first capacity bar dropped. The car should easily hit 150k miles.

 

really? Seems to be they were selling them in 2002, then again with another rav4 ev joint venture and EQ demo. There is even a forum here for the non existent Toyota plug-ins.
RAV4 EV | PriusChat

What you could say is they only sold them in compliance quantities, but then again that is the plan for the next 3 years with the mirai.

The big maintenance cost for the fuel cell busses have been hydrogen lines and replacement of fuel cells. I believe these are warranted for 8 years in the mirai (3 year leases cover everything, just inconvenience for them failing). I would expect that these and not the carbon fiber hydrogen tanks will be the warranty cost item for Toyota on this test fleet. I would consider it R&D though as they will probably learn a lot by looking at how they failed.

Alternatively tesla batteries appear to have less degradation than they expected. Nissan batteries did not age well, and they have changed the chemistry.

 

The bomb part of the hydrogen tank is that it is under pressure up to 10k psi. A scuba tank that has its regulator snapped off in an accident will tank off like a missile, and they are below 4k psi. Being flammable is just icing.

That said, it will take a severe crash to rupture the hydrogen tank. The real issue is whether the safety valves will prevent the leaking of hydrogen into the nook and crannies of the frame during an accident. The video with a jet of flame coming off a hydrogen car is what can happen if the ruptre disk gives, in which case the hydrogen is vented to outside the car. It doesn't illustrate what can happen if the hydrogen lines within the car break and leak.

The fuel cell is still an unknown.

 

I'm sure Toyota's crash test videos are "Top Secret". It would interesting to see how bad an accident would need to be to cause a hydrogen fire. I'm assuming there are automatic shutoff valves at the tanks that close given enough "G" force. So, lines and such down stream that rupture during a crash would hopefully not release hydrogen gas.

In the worldwide airline industry, about one aircraft a year is destroyed after fuel tank explosions. Some happen during refueling operations at the gate, others happen in flight (B747, TWA Flight 800, 1996)

 

Fire is just an unlikely event even in a gasoline car crash, and outside of crashes, most car fires don't involve the fuel; it's usually a faulty electrical switch.

There are some US government films comparing a hydrogen car fire to a gasoline one. They are more propaganda to counter the unreasonable 'Hindenburg' fear than to actually test anything.

 

What exactly are you saying here? That Prii batteries don't have batteries that last 14 years? (My 2001 is not that far away from disproving that statement.) Or that Hybrid vehicles (or any non BEV vehicle with a battery) are OK to expire in under 14 years but BEV cannot? Why 14 years as the threshold? I'm at a lost to understand the basis for this statement and then how that basis gets selectively applied.

 

14 years because the hydrogen fuel tanks on the Mirai have an end of service date that long. The end of of service date for high pressure fuel tanks isn't comparable to how long a traction pack will last in a plugin. Legally, a CNG or hydrogen car can not be driven on the road once that date is reached. Even if testing proves the tank is still safe, it can't be recertified for road use.

A BEV pack doesn't have to replaced when it has lost capacity on the other hand. Chances are that a 14+ year old BEV will have seen some loss to the battery, but as long as the car still has the range that the owner needs, they can choose to keep the original battery in the car. Like an old ICE that needs work, the owner can choose to live with reduced fuel efficiency from worn and loose parts, and adding a quart of oil every week because of leaks. They don't have to repair the engine, or battery, until the car can no longer function at a level that they need; whether EV range or ICE reliability.

Another factor to consider is that refurbished battery packs will be an option for a plugin. An old hydrogen FCEV will likely be left with new tanks as the only option for replacement.

 

The hydrogen tanks do not have an expiration date. CNG tanks have a 10 year experation date.

 

I specifically asked what the expiration date was on the tanks, and was told there is none. I asked because I know Honda Civic CNG tanks have a 10 year expiration date. As to other components, I don't know. But I was only stating the tanks.

 

I appreciate the risk of fire in a petrol car, but usually it's restricted to the car and perhaps surrounding property. If a FCV has a fire AND the tank ruptures (rare possibly but could still happen), what happens to the neighbouring area? Is it just property next to the fire that gets damaged OR does the fire shut down the street and blow out all windows within 300 yards?

 

Given two different stories, between a sales rep and owner's manual, I'll go with the owner's manual.

 

Sound like a future Top Gear episode on H2 cars.

 

Yes, they do. In the Car and Driver photo of them inserting the refueling nozzle, a sticker on the fuel door can be seen. It has a specific date on it(14 to 15 years in the future) that says not to refuel the car after. Any ideas on why besides the tank's end of service date?

The most expensive CNG tanks are good for 25 years now. Ignoring the difference in chemical and physical properties between hydrogen and natural gas, why would one tank, CNG, with a fill pressure of 3500psi have regulated expiration dates, and hydrogen tanks with fill pressures of 10,000psi not?

Sounds like a question for MythBusters. Worst case is that there will be some serious collateral damage to the surrounding area, but that means some extensive damage to the tank itself for an actual explosion. Without that, the rupture disc/pressure release valve should give long before the tank walls do. That might mean a huge jet of flame or a moving car wreck if it isn't sitting wheels down, but it is a controlled release of the pressure.

The biggest impact on everyday life may be higher insurance rates for the hydrogen car owner because of that very rare worst case scenario.