Featured Dashboard Summary Sept 2017

First we have to confirm that the plug in increase is the cause for the hybrid decrease. You and @bwilson4web aren't the car buying public.

The Prius is the main hybrid, and historically made up most of the segment's sales. After a peak in 2008, its sales started dropping. Before the arrival of even the Volt and Leaf.
Toyota Prius liftback US car sales figures
The figures do go back up 2012, when gas prices climb back to a $3.60 average. Then they drop again; to under 100k a year for 2016.

But the segment's sales volume does not drop, as more models start getting released during that time. There is some decreasing, but the other models sales are coving the Prius losses to a point. 2010 to 2011 sees about 11k loss for the Prius, but just 6k for the segment.
Table 1-19: Gasoline Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales: 1999–2015 | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Yes, plug ins are growing during the hybrid slumps, but don't forget the usual suspect.
Gas prices.
The biggest hybrid sales drops tend to occur with big drops in gas prices. 2008 to 2009 and 2014 to 2015 saw the average drop by 90 cents or more per gallon. And gas prices are still low.
U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices
U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)

The Prime plus incentives is playing a part in the Prius sales going down, but the Rav4h sales growth is likely not driven by a majority of previous hybrid owners nor plug in ones. Most of those sales were likely to previous ICE owners. People are moving from ICE to hybrids as they get more choice, and the hybrid cons of price and lost trunk space become less. I expect the new Camry to do better with its improvements, but fuel prices will always have influence.

Plug in sales are growing faster, because they offer something more than reduced fuel use, have government incentives, and become affordable to a wider group of buyers.

Within a 100 miles of me on Cars.com, there are two 2018 Fusion hybrid SE's list for $4k to $5k off MSRP.
Ford is pushing the Fusion to balance their CAFE with all the F150s and Explorers they are selling, and because the new Camry is a threat.

I expected Toyota making the new Prius more sedan like to broaden appeal. Can't say if it helps or not at this point, but the Prius is not the Fusion's main Toyota competitor. Plus, Prius sales were dropping before the arrival of the gen4.

 

is the new Camry a good car? How so?

 

i think he means hybrid camry. 50 mpg.

 

you're coming to a conclusion, without any evidence. i'm saying we don't know.

 

...just rented one (probably older one), but it would be improved Cargo space that could get me back in a Camry, if it were more like a large Prius liftback.

 

i think the 2018 is now as big as the non hybrid? of course, if you want lift back, you have rav4 and highlander.

 

Yes, but mostly the fact that the Camry hybrid has the same trunk space as the non-hybrid, and I think even keeps the spare.

It might be circumstantial, but there is evidence. We've known for a while now that hybrid and other fuel efficient car sales follow the price of gas. Yes, some plug in sales were at the expense of hybrids, but the established fact of gas price's influence means all the lost hybrid sales can't be because of plug ins.

Prius annual sales from 2007 to 2009 dropped about 40k; an over 20% decrease. There was no plug ins available at this time to steal hybrid sales, and the selection of hybrid models was still low.

The big change during that time was the price of gas dropping by nearly 30% to $2.40 a gallon. With the draw of hybrids still being lower fuel use, the influence of price prices can't be ignored.

Another way to look at this is that the rate of plug in growth outstrips the loss of hybrid sales. Even if all the lost hybrid sales did go to plug ins, traditional ICEs would still need to give up note worthy number of sales to them. Then as long as CAFE targets can be kept up, the manufacturers will need to slip hybrid tech out of necessity, and the number of traditional ICE available will shrink.

 

i hope you're right! are the quantity of plug ins much higher than total lost hybrid sales?

 

I did a number of polls of Volt, Leaf and Tesla owners. There were a number of people that had replaced a hybrid, but there were many more that replaced a gasser.
The big giveaway is that hybrid market share peaked and started its downward trend long before EVs were available.

 

i have no doubt that many (majority?) of tesla owners are first time ev buyers. but i have to wonder about the rest of the plug ins.

 

I worked up to plugs in steps. I started out with TDIs and I could thank VW with putting out the biggest POS I've ever owned that made me look elsewhere. Ignoring the rants against hybrids, I tried out a Prius and bought it on the spot, trading in my "clean diesel".

It was a Gen III, so I used to mess with the EV button and it hooked me, so when the offer for the PiP was made by Toyota, I swapped them out. Even with the PiP, I found that EVing was a powerful drug.

One day, I drove a friend of mine to the Chevy dealer to pick up his car and while waiting, I was asked by a salesman if I would like to try out a Volt. I left with it that night. After driving the Volt for over three years now, I found that even with out of state trips, I'm running at 75% in EV use. With that in mind, I'm considering picking up an EV with DC charging and it doesn't have to have a big battery to be useful to me, especially now that NJ is working on putting up charging stations on the highways that I use.

Thank you VW for getting me into EVs.

 

Start shopping!

"The Camry Hybrid provides 15.1 cubic feet of trunk space, which is the same amount as the nonhybrid Camry. Unlike most hybrids, the 2018 Camry Hybrid’s battery doesn’t eat into your cargo space because the battery rests underneath the back seat, not in the trunk. A split-folding rear seat comes standard, which allows for extra cargo room when you’re carrying larger items.

The Camry Hybrid’s trunk features a wide opening, but the hinges for the lid dip into the load space somewhat. You may also have trouble loading some longer items because even though the rear seats fold, they aren’t level with the trunk floor when folded down."

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/toyota/camry-hybrid/interior

 

That is why I took polls at the Leaf and Volt forums as well.
Hybrids were a larger percentage at Leaf and Volt forums than at the Tesla forum, but they were still a minority.

EVs have so much going for them, it just takes time for people to figure it out.

Found it, here is the thread discussing those polls...
Efficient car market growth and trends | PriusChat

 

I'm a little baffled why Fusion Hybrid is selling so well. It has a fold down rear seat but trunk space is pretty compromised last time I checked.
I'm booked to rent a 2018 Camry SE non-hybrid tomorrow. I had some lower back pain due to lifting wrong recently and started sitting up really straight in car, so will see if Camry is comfortable. If it bombs the first day, will return it, if not will keep longer.

I hope Camry goes well cause I would like to put 2018 Camry hybrid SE up against Accord hybrid coming early next year. My car will be 13 yo next year and recently had to replace alternator and brake shim. Many more things like A/C compressor, power steering pump could go out too.

 

SUVs are popular + low fuel prices + CAFE targets = lots of cash on the hood of a Fusion hybrid

 

a quick check shows $4,000. off around here, and lease around $200./mo. doesn't seem that great, but maybe dealers are bending over when you go in.

 

The $4000 off I saw was for a 2018.

 

hmmm, that seems odd to be advertising it now.

 

just checked quirk ford, $2,750. rebate, $1,760. quirk discount, $490. package rebate net price $18,485.
i didn't realize they start at $23,485 msrp.

edit: that wasn't hybrid.

 

muni ford is showing $8,000. off fusion energy.