Crazy Volt incentives makes me want to trade

Here is the thread leading to your statement to ignore me

Which was fine.. I presume you just did not like the fact that the other parts of my posts were pointing out facts you don't like and asking questions you cannot really answer.

Then you state

Where in that thread did I have a personal insult?

If you find my questioning of your vague innuendoes, and asking to cite sources, to be a personal insult, be assured it is not intendent as one,; I'm just trying to stick to facts. If you find me asking you to stick to facts and offer sources a personal insult, then have a problem and probably should ignore me, as I'll just keep on calling you out for unsupported generalized accusations that try to make the Volt, volt supporters, or me look bad.


And returning to the sales data and issues you choose to ignore. What is your explanation for the Jan-April Prius (or Prius + Prius PHV ) sales combined being down more than 19% (17%) from the Jan-April 2012 sales and even down compared to 2011? How do you explain that, or otherwise justify your comment that the Prius V/C did not eat into Prius sales?

In comparison, the Volt sales YTD compared to 2012 are up 3%. Its not just about one size fits all vs economies of scale, it is about building a PHEV that people want to buy. And with only $2100 net price difference between the PiP and the Volt, before dealer incentives, this thread is about how being close in price + incentives makes some people prefer the volt.

 

Come on, Prius in 1997 did not have the $7,500 tax credit.

Prius tax deduction (typically $500) started in 2004. $3,150 tax credit started in 2006 but faded after 50k vehicles sold.

Volt has $7,500 tax credit for 150k vehicles. The incentives are much higher and it is making Volt more attractive to some.

A better comparison would be the sale of 2006 Prius vs 2015 Volt. Both Gen2 with full tax incentives in effect, although the amount of incentive is not comparable ($3,150 vs $7,500).

 

That kind of incentive is dragging down the price other plugins. I'll have to thank Volt for allowing me to purchase my PiP at a regular Prius III price.

Competition is good but this is crazy. It can't be healthy for the market.

 

I just purchased a 2nd PIPA and waiting for delivery from NYC. I really gave the Volt a look with all the incentives going with it. But, I just couldn't pull the trigger. If I knew I was going to stay somewhere for a long time and could install charging infrastructure it would be a no brainer for me to get the Volt with my commute now. But, I am probably going to be moving in a couple months and will be street parking. So, I won't have charging capabilities. I am not able to charge at work either. Otherwise, the Volt would still be a contender. I was going to get a Prius 5, but when the PIPA is cheaper with all the incentives it made sense for me. If the Volt was a regular hybrid that uses regular gas and had the plug in capabilities then I probably would have gotten the Volt instead. But, it is a lot smaller than the Prius and only fits 4.

 

The amout of deduction is not really the issue, it the out of pocket cost, which is still higher for the volt than the Prius (even accounting for inflation).


More to the point, in my post that chart was in response to a claim that volt sales fell apart after the launch, which it very clearly contradicts.

@ F8L is it the amount off or just the resulting net price? If they marked up the price to 50K before incentives and gave you 25K off would you be more interested?

 

We seem to want to forget the near 30% subsidy Toyota enjoys exporting the Prius to the US.

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Agreed, which points out which car was designed for the mass-market and the level of "take off" one should expect from Volt compared to Prius.

That makes sense. The more states it is available for sale, the more it is going to sell. The supplies were probably limited during the launch in the launch states as well.

 

Price being out of reach from middle-market budgets is bad enough. Not being profitable means there it will stay trapped at niche volume. The fate of this generation of Volt is no longer a point of argument. That coffin is buried. There is no trend anymore.

Take advantage of incentives, but don't expect that to translate to anyone else. If it works out for someone, great. They'll enjoy the purchase. It's a right-place-at-the-right-time opportunity.

When the next generation details are revealed, we'll begin new discussions. Remember what happened to the original Insight? The all-aluminum body prevented profit. Volt will have to be reintroduced later, in a lower-cost design... something capable of mainstream volume production.

 

From what I've read, Prius turned profit toward the end of Gen1. Gen2 returned profit but the margin was lower than non-hybrid models.

So, even with these crazy incentives, will Volt make profit toward the end of Gen1? It has been out for almost 4 years so the end is approaching. The battery supplier LG chem was reported to be losing money on every pack sold. I can't imagine GM make profit any time soon.

Remember, Toyota did everything in-house starting from Gen1. Battery, hybrid transaxle (power-split device and electric motors), power inverter, etc. That contributed to turning profit by the end of Gen1.

Gen1 Volt is using LG chem battery (Korean), transaxle from Aisin (Japanese)and not sure about the power inverter. The cost may be harder to bring the cost down from those outsourced suppliers.

 

Toyota obviously worked hard to reduce component & production costs.

What most people don't know is that they also pursued the economy-of-scale benefit at the same time. They detuned the engine and created a new less expensive body/interior. That vehicle was called: Echo

There isn't an opportunity like that available for Volt... yet.

 

You are right, Gen1 Prius looked a lot like the Echo -- much closer than Volt to the Cruze.

Gen2 Prius had all new body design (hatchback) along with the aluminum hood and hatch door. Since Gen2 became mainstream, it justified the cost of new parts with the economy-of-scale. I don't see Volt achieving that this Gen.

 

The window of opportunity for the Volt is getting smaller with the passage of time. The market will get more crowded making it more difficult for the Volt to see the economy of scale benefit.

Giving Gm the benefit of a doubt, A less expensive Volt platform does exists: Cruze. The cash cow that the Cruze is, hopefully is filling the coffers of GMs' R & D in Volt cost reductions. The current leasing plan for the Volt is, at best a short term solution to get drivers behind the wheel.

Long term solution is a Volt the is more affordable to the general public. This has to happen if the Volt is going to increase market share.

DBCassidy

F8L seems to be dragging his feet on this.

If he wants the Volt: Go for it, and be done with it. After all it been discussed more than enough to make a decision on this.

DBCassidy

 

Ok, I see your view point, wait a couple of years. When current leasing expires, you will be able to get a used Volt at a decent price.

There's nothing wrong with that.

DBCassidy

 

Used Volts in my area.
Find Your Car: Used Chevrolet Volt Listings Near Union, NJ 07083 - AutoTrader.com

 

It was a $3,150 tax deduction not a tax credit, courtesy of George W.. I know I took advantage of it and got an extra $800 refund.

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In this thread from 2004 (i.e. after may years of Gen 1)
IS THE PRIUS MAKING A PROFIT ? | PriusChat
Irv Miller, Toyota's group vice president for corporate communications, is quoted as saying

So it depends on how you define "profit", even for the Prius. Its gross margins were likely positive by the of Gen 1. But then its been reported (The Real Story On GM's Volt Costs - Forbes) that the Volt is at or near positive gross margins.

GM's not saying the current volt is at positive gross margins (i.e. profitable by some definitions), nor should they say it right now (even if its true) or there will be more pressure to cut the price and/or kill the credits. The company as a whole is profitable and if it helps them on CARB, helps them with their image and serves as a Halo to lure in buyers for Cruzes, then it may be helping their bottom line enough to justify its continued production/sale. But of course more profit is their goal and direct statements from Atkerson suggest they expecting Gen 2 to tbe profitable even after the price cut. (Akerson Foresees Up To $10,000 Price Cut For Next-Gen Volt - Forbes) Companies getting subsidies are not likely to say they are profitable it it might jeopardize their subsidies.

And LG chem saying they were lossing mone on each pack makes sense, the built and staffed a factory that did nothing, that adds to costs and does not produce anything. LG could have shifted the work but also had political pressure back home so could not close that one either. It was easer to waste/lose money than loose face and close the korean factory, or give back the US money they got to build the factory here.

 

I see this growth 'asymptote' differently. Hybrids have plateaued given the currently stable price of petrol. If the petrol price goes up in real terms, hybrids have almost unlimited growth potential. The only reason I can think of where this is not true is a disruptive tech than improves upon hybrid price/performance. Performance in this case is reliability and fuel economy.

Bob Wilson has suggested more than once that approaches are possible that will allow a petrol ICE without an air throttle. That will kick hybrids where it hurts, if combined with reliable DI and turbo.

 

Well I agree in part, in the post you cited I was talking about the Disruptive tech. For you performance may be measured in reliability and fuel economy, but many others have different elements of performance (power, style, space).

But I don't think the data supports your supisitio that its as strongly ties to gas pricess. Consider the plots below






And you'll see that gas prices peaked in 2008, but take rate was lower in 2008 then than in 2009 or 2010(when both prices were lower and economy was in worse shape for almost the whole year). So its hard to be convincing saying that its strongly tied to prices.

I think the limit is that people have different priorities and unless fuel jumps to Japan or EU price levels it will not have a major impact. I believe the limits have been more because of the limited choices and that more good choices will improve the overall take for both HV and PHEV. But I also consider the PHEV and BEV's to be that disruptive innovation that will overtake HVs.