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Featured Consumer Reports' Highest-Rated Car-Ever

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by hill, Aug 28, 2015.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I don't like it because it is so poorly defined. So tell us what you mean when you use the term. When the prius first came out, people said it wasn't mainstream. You seem to think over a decade later that it was always mainstream. Tell us what you mean and maybe I'll agree. I guessed the only strange definition that I could think I could agree about. This is 9 years old, but probably an easy way to refresh your memory about the introduction. I still think the prius deserved its early honors even though it was new tech and expensive compared to similar sized and equped cars.
    The Birth of the Prius - March 6, 2006

    Toyota and Tesla both thought they were making the drive train of the future.

    The initial audience - customers for the model S and prius were initial adopters. There are some big differences between the cars and the companies. It took a decade 1993-2003 for toyota to get traction with hybrids with the second generation prius.

    Telsa's plan for the model S, X, and III is more audacious than toyota's original plan with the prius. BEVs and now batteries and chargers are the only things tesla makes. If they fail here, they fail as a company. Toyota could lose money on hybrid cars but still use them as a halo to grow the regular ice business. That is what they did the first 6 years. Tesla is hoping for 500,000 cars in 2020, which is comparable to 2005 for toyota. In 2005 toyota sold 300,000 hybrids. I don't know if tesla will do it, but that will be a major accomplishment

    Then why do people pay more money for a prius than a corolla?
     
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The problem with a long range bev is cost. Its amazing your gas is cheaper than mine, and how low oil has gone. I think this lasts maybe a few years before going up. As it is people are buying more gas hungry vehicles, which will cause a backlash when it rises again. I don't think many tesla owners buy the car to save money on gas though. It seems like a good value compared to the Lexus, BMW, Audi, and Mercedes competitors.

    Probably the sweet spot in tesla's line up is the 70D, with 240 mile range. One charger is 193 miles, so you might need a 40 minute charge until they build out more, which is over an hour of stops on your trip. The 85kwh or 90kwh requires only 3 stops, if one is for lunch you need a couple of extra 20-30 minute stops. If you are driving on a lot of 600 mile trips and don't like stopping, the model S is probably not the right car for you.

    A carbon fiber road bike, and a e-bicycle are affordable to even more people than that. Would you call them mainstream?

    Its a fairly nebulous term. I'm guess you mean 4 door 5 seat sedan or hatchback that costs between $10,000-$30,000. You could just say that the tesla costs more than you are willing to pay for a car $X. That doesn't mean its not desirable, or checks all the test criteria at car and driver, and motor trend, and consumer reports as best in class, which hits the best sports sedan. That is definitely fair. I just hate the mainstream term as something disqualifying. BEVs aren't mainstream. A volt is priced similarly to a prius, and a leaf lower but both get discounted because they use alternative fuel. I think those using the term - not mainstream, are just getting fooled by the words.

    I agree with you on the prius. It didn't become mainstream because of price or sales. It did because after enough time, people stopped thinking of a "hybrid" as being weird thing they didn't like, and started to get used to the technology. It helped that the batteries didn't die in a year or 2, and that the gen II had more available power.
     
    #102 austingreen, Aug 31, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2015
  3. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    hill, Zythryn and austingreen like this.
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I understand the Chinese are also part of "people" and they may have realized the consequences of poor pollution and inefficiency. Last count, they are 1/5th of the worlds population, almost as important as California. <grins>

    That does raise an interesting question, what do the Chinese think of hydrogen fuel cell cars?

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The Chinese government wants plug-ins and do not want fuel cell vehicles. There are no domestic manufacturers of fuel cell vehicles in china, and they particularly do not want to import vehicles from Japan. Many Chinese have a poor opinion of buying anything Japanese from their history.

    China only uses a tiny amount of oil per capita compared to the US, but their government understands they can supply electricity at a much lower cost than they can import oil, if the average chinese drove as much as those in other countries.
    China’s Fuel Demand to Peak Sooner Than Oil Giants Expect - Bloomberg Business

    Tesla has had disappointing sales in china, which it sees as being a market as big as the US for its cars. They may have to build a plant in china to really sell high volume in that market. They won't have cash to do that until after 2018. Let's see if they can get sales up before then.
     
    #105 austingreen, Sep 1, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2015
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  6. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    5,000Lb towing capacity ... I'm presuming that's tongue weight. Far from fifth wheel necessities, but it's a start.
    .
     
  7. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    At $50k I'm a buyer and would be the 22,001th or so in line to get one. But somehow $132-144k doesn't interest this mainstream buyer. The $40k deposit is somewhat offputting too.

    What does it cost to insure a car that expensive/fast?

    Impressive car though, many $100k+ cars are.
     
  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    oh well - there's always leasing ...
    if it's any consolation, just like the Bugatti Veyron - all of the waitlist spots for the 'signature' model X were filled up, well over a year ago.
    Sometimes people ask me, "why does it cost over $100 to go to Disneyland?!" my answer is always the same ;
    because they can (as long as there are anxious customers willing to wait & wait just to get
    what they want)
    ;)
    .
     
  9. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    So, any chance of seeing the promised Tesla 3 $35,000 2 years from now: Elon Musk Says Tesla Model 3 Will Cost $35,000 &lt;i&gt;Before&lt;/i&gt; Incentives | Forums | Tesla Motors
     
    #109 Sergiospl, Sep 1, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2015
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Sure, the base model S rwd 70 is $70,000 before tax incentives. If the gigafactory makes the batteries 30% less expensive and the car is 60 kwh instead of 70 kwh, that makes the battery about $7000 less expensive or about $10,500. A smaller less luxurious car, with steel unibody with maybe an aluminum hood like the prius is much less expensive than the full aluminum bodied S. Higher volume means lower prices from suppliers. $28,000 can definitely be squeezed out of a higher volume smaller car. $35,000 is definitely feasable in 2017.

    I think it will end up as $41,500 in 2018, with a fatter profit margin for tesla instead. Currently the D (awd option) is $5000 more, but it will likely be a $3500 option as the motors will be bought in higher volume. We should know in 3 years. In 2018 there should still be some tax credits left in the US, but they should be gone by 2019.
     
  11. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    my wild guess (based on years between the S startup & the X) would put it out at least 3yrs.
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    That's 2018;) like I guesstimated above.
     
  13. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I'm definitely not buying at $132k either.
    Our Model X should be about $40k to $50k less. I know a number of people waiting for the CPO Model S to hit $40k when the X production ramps up.
     
  14. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    +1
    pretty neat, they are selling these at cost according to the link. They are hand built low volume unlike the S and X, and upgrade the roadster with a new PEM module so it can use the extra power and the super chargers. $414/kwh. They probably are making something as they take the old pack and will use it.

    This is a low volume retrofit, to support the first customers that supported the company.
     
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  16. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Maybe this means Toyota will upgrade the gen1 pip?
    ;)
    .
     
  17. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    I would not put fresh money or upgrade a depreciating asset, just enough to keep it going until the next one.

    I thought it was enough money to buy the 2016 Nissan LEAF coming this month with boosted range ~110 miles and keep the Tesla R with its current range :D!
     
    #117 Sergiospl, Sep 1, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2015
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    For value on the typical tesla, leaf, volt drive pattern the gen II volt gives you the most bang for buck. You can get it nicely equipped for that after tax credit in many states.

    Upgrading a roadster isn't about that. Its a limited production 2400 vehicle, and a first. Its something for collectors. The next roadster - due in 2019 or 2020 will probably be a higher volume - thousands per year, and likely much more affordable, but not as unique. I'm guessing boxter prices, and aluminum not carbon fiber. The possible 3.0 upgrades aren't just batteries, they are also tires and aero kit. That means more money than $29,000. The availability of support increases used value which is already high. This is a collectors car, not a daily driver like the model S. I think the hand built low volume battery packs probably cost that much to tesla to build and install with upgraded electronics. Maybe 100 upgraders a year, but its there if people want to do it.
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Tesla CEO: $35K Model 3 Pre-Orders/Debut In March, Model X Deliveries Sept 29th

    Musk tweeted a lot more information today.
    The model X non-signature are $5000 more than the model S and first delivery is September 29. That seems like a fair price, and there are a lot of deposits down. The base X should start at $76,200 after destination and before tax credit. That is $66,200 in California, I expect that state to buy a lot of them, there were over 12,000 deposits in March, and I'm sure that number is higher now.

    The model 3 is still targetted for $35,000 and the reveal and actual price and reservations will take place in march.
     
  20. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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