CleanTechnica: two articles of interest

You forgot about Cadillac ELR. And before "oh that's GM/Caddy/for old folks", Lexus 200 CT wasn't much of a success either.

 

tesla really the only success so far

 

technology. motors, batteries, chargers, software, and the most difficult; worldwide supercharger network

tesla will be like microsoft, making billions off of licensing their network

 

Well, I didn't want to go there. They did so many things wrong with the ELR, the biggest issue being they started with the Chevy Volt's powertrain (and everyone knew it was from the Volt), almost doubled the price for less mileage/range, and made an already niche vehicle even more niche by removing 2 doors and a seat. Add to that GM's execution, and the recipe for failure was all but guaranteed.

Yes the CT was a misfire, but that's missing the forest for the trees: Toyota/Lexus is the opposite of GM - they execute very well. Utilizing Toyota platforms, Lexus adds enough style/feature/interior differentiation to justify its approx. 50% premium, and the sales success compared to Cadillac proves it. Toyota's not perfect, hence the CT and a few other misfires (eg. Scion, Echo, 2nd-gen Bb, etc.)

 

That's just vague hype, nothing quantitative.

 

What puzzles me is why manufacturers insist on squeezing big batteries in compact sedan/hatchback bodies, while the market trends clearly indicate a shift towards crossovers/small SUVs. Should be easier from the engineering perspective, and more appealing as a an all-around vehicle.
Yes, there is (was) C-Max as a bad example, but I think it's more bad execution than the idea.

 

Money, range, efficiency, profit
And something about knowing your audience.

A 10 mile EV PHEV Pickup using the tech from 2011 would have likely bombed bad and not made profit.

 

.. but a 50 mile Volt in RAV4/CRV-kind body (do not know what's GM equivalent for that) would likely sell pretty well.

 

It's coming. Today there is the Mitsubishi Outlander and Subaru Crosstrek PHEV's. Next-gen ones will hit the 50-60 miles target you're referring to (this reference is for the Outlander, but gives us an idea of the next Prime/Crosstrek): https://www.caradvice.com.au/702873/2020-mitsubishi-outlander-phev-range

As a side note, if I was a Tesla shareholder, this would be an area of most concern for me, since the compact and mid SUV segment is now the largest and will continue to be. Tesla cannot hit the $35k price point at the sedan level, let alone a pricier SUV, so this key segment is for the "legacy" makers to take and run with.

 

SUV aren't that much more expensive to produce, esp. crossovers, most of them are car based anyway. It's hitting the mass market and dealing with all its aspects in a sustainable manner is what gonna hit Tesla hard, if not already. Who knows how much model 3 will actually depreciate when tens of thousands of used cars begin hitting the secondary market, which will likely drag the new prices down - and it's not like Tesla is hoarding cash Apple-style.

 

You are overlooking the basics, which play a role in electrification... like steering.

Think about Toyota's advancement in those terms, having phased out the traditional pump by switching to electric... a feat achieved by hybrids, essential for plug-ins.

Those little steps make a big difference; yet, you don't acknowledge their importance.

 

agreed, I've been waiting for a prius size or larger bev for a few years now

but every day toyota tinkers, tesla advances. all carmakers are already behind the 8 ball. only tesla is prepared for the future

 

Know your audience. Please take the time to research what it takes to actually prepare. That post clearly reveals you have not.

Toyota is doing exactly what it takes to advance. High-Volume processes cannot be changed quickly. Adaptation works best by taking numerous small steps. That everyday tinkering is evidence of progress forward. Forcing the perspective of Tesla (a limited product start-up) makes absolutely no sense. Claiming otherwise confirms being out of touch with what legacy automakers must do.

Only enthusiasts care about the impression of being behind. Ordinary consumers aren't even paying attention to the early-adopter market. When they finally do take notice in a few years, they'll see Toyota was well prepared from all the technology they already rolled out in their hybrids.

 

So there is part of your answer, about why no SUV's.
Chrysler realized their Stow and Go fold away 2nd row seats, creates a huge storage bin under the floor that couid be repurposed for PHEV batteries. So they had an unexpected opportunity. The other minivans would have to have a huge redesign program and design all new chassis to do what Chrysler did. That seems to be an enormous investment for autos to do that, so we do not see that scale of investment very often.

 

Honest question: what exactly is Tesla's technological advance? What tech doest it have a monopoly on that it can license to others? Batteries? Nothing new there, totmy knowledge. Other than Autopilot, that many other companies heavily R&D as well, I can't think of anything.

 

All of these advances mean nothing if Tesla can't turn a profit, interesting Forbes article today on Tesla's "math": Tesla's Profit Warning Is Further Evidence That Elon Musk's Math Does Not Add Up

 

Tesla doesn’t really care about model 3 early adopters, their model is to start high and drive to the bottom as demand moves down the price totem pole.

This will make it harder to sell early cars but also likely isolate them out of their current market at the same time.

400,000 pre orders may take a while to clear out anyway

 

tesla will license their charging network, because no one else will build one.

tesla technology is way beyond anything else on the market, and they're making it cheaper and more profitably than anyone else can do currently.
they will keep advancing while everyone else sits on their hands watching, and claiming that no one will buy them.
tesla will have a cup in a few years, and theres no reason to believe prices won't keep coming down as they have been.
tesla is also the only carmaker with its own battery factory

tesla is already turning a profit. articles by wall street shorters do not interest me. what interests me are facts.
you can go back 10 years and find article after article by people who want tesla to fail. go study the history, and look where tesla is today, compared to then. do you think starting a car company is easy?
especially when big oil and their interests have a target on your back?

 

The Volt MSRP dropped $6000 to $7000 between generations, so there is room for price improvements with further development, but a PHEV will always cost more, while a BEV could reach total cost parity with an ICE car.

To help with the current higher costs, GM is making Cadillac their plug in brand. The luxury upgrade will help hide some of the cost while costs continue to come down. Then Ford's newest PHEV is a Lincoln. The Aviator will have about 30 miles of EV range, while the Explorer is getting just a regular hybrid, though there are rumors of a PHEV Escape and F150.

They have the Superchargers. It may not be truly new but they have the patent on it, and it is the largest network of fast DC chargers out there. The majority of CHAdeMO and CCS in the US are only half as fast as a Supercharger. They could be as fast, but no one is willing to install them.

When they get serious, the quickest way for any of the other car companies to provide fast charging for long trips will be to buy into the Supercharger network.

Focusing on Tesla is ignoring what others are doing. Volkswagon is one of the largest global auto companies. The recently unveiled a dedicated BEV car platform. The first model using it should be out by the end of this year, with another half dozen, already named, ones following. VW is also working on 300kW chargers, faster than Supercharger.

You left out your favorite example of Amazon.

 

nothing vague about their charging network. no one will ever be able to catch up. it will always be tesla and the wannabes