California SB-286 HOV Extension Update

How Likely? Very
#1 Legislators don't strip anything. Both Green & White HOV stickers have sunset provisions. They expire. You & I are told that up front. You may not pay attention ... you may have ignored the legislated sunset provision ... but it's the law.
#2 The Green / White stickers will expire just like the yellow ones did. Drive in the HOV lane & you face a fine that'll suck you dry in the hundreds of dollars.

Did yellow stickers get to stay in when the sunset provision kicked in? Did their kicking & screaming amount to anything? Well there you go. The odds of an extension? I give extension legislation (on a good day) a 1 in 3 chance. The competing interests (to kick solo drivers out versus keep solo drivers in) will poor money into the legislators re-election war chests ... both sides. Guzzler manufacturers want you out (envy) and plug-in manufacturers want you in. Which ever side pays the most wins. It's pretty simple.
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Um ... you're building your own fantacy - See above:
#1 It's not a revocation
#2 When the colored sticker expires - it expires. The CHP aren't color blind. Just ask any numskull yellow sticker/ignorant driver who kept driving after the expiration date. They got a ticket.

It's just like getting a ticket for dui ... you don't get a hall pass by simply claimng, "oh ... well no one told me I couldn't". The prosecutor doesn't have to prove intent ... just that you did it. If you truly want the sunset provision revised - you better start funneling lots of dough into your legislators coffers. It's not your best hope. It's your only hope.
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I know the stickers expire. I was asking about stripping the pip of its hov access before the 2018 expiration.

 

Yeah, Hill seems pretty animated about the stickers.
PHEV'S have not been approved beyond 2018, so there is no stripping. How likely are they going to be extended? Well, it's pretty much a unanimouse vote in the senate 34 to 0 and 4 no votes in favor of extending green stickers to 2018.

The reason for the stickers in the first place is to sell PHEV'S and BEV's. So, based on current sales of PHEVs so far, there is no reason it wouldn't pass. Keep in mind that 85,000 yellow stickers were issued. 40,000 green ones were approved for green of which only 10,900 have been issued. So even if all stickers were issued, it's less than half of the yellow stickers. With an expiration date of 2015, the green stickers will not run out at current pace. I don't know how many white stickers were issued but I assume its negligible compared to green.

It costs tax payers zero dollars to approve this bill. It actually costs money if it is not approved in deferred costs. If you look at the fine print of AB-266 (same bill that would extend to 2025, but was merged with this bill) it would cost $700k to remove signs informing of clean air vehicles is deferred. I don't remember seeing any signs about clean air vehicles so I don't know where that number came from. We all know how politicians like borrowing from the future.

And finally, there is not a single entity in opposition of this bill. At least none willing to put their name on the opposition column and list the reasons for opposition. All the major manufacturers with PHEV'S or BEV'S are on the support list including electric companies and natural gas companies. Oddly no Toyota.

No one can guarantee the PiP will get the extension. But you have a unanimous vote, low usage of green stickers, zero fiscal impact, and no opposition. You decide if your green stickers will be extended.

 

assume being the operative word ... you'd be surprised - how 'not' negligible the white sticker quantity is. For one thing - white stickers began getting issued over 20 years ago. That's right ... 1991. Every thing from ford & gm EV pickups and Vans - to CNG crown vic's ... CNG Dodge pickups, and on and on. Iow, not just late 1990's RAV4-EV's and the like ... which are still out there - plus the new wave of EV stuff ... Honda Fits, Leafs, Sparks, Fiat, etc. And IIRC, there are no limits on white sticker numbers. I'm sorry for being thick skulled, but what difference does green vs white quantities represent anyway? ... I'm missing the point of the significance.

As to issued yellow stickers being, 'less than half of the approved green ones', One can spin 'sticker-renewal-urgency' both ways. You can say it's urgent to extend green stickers, because they didn't get used/applied for ... or you could argue greens stickers not being snapped up means the demand isn't there - as there was for yellow/hybrid stickers. The yellow ones got snapped up ... and they STILL let 'em expire (despite legislative attempts to extend) - how should you interpret that? I duno. There are plenty of articles arguing against plugin stickers, because solo drivers are more likely to clog HOV lanes than van/car poolers, who actually reduce congestion. The original legislation was 2-fold ... reduce smog AND the number of commuters.

My guess is GM will lobby(pay) their legislators hard to extend the green stickers. The stickers can save drivers an easy hour a day from CA gridlock, regardless of whether plugin drivers ever charge their car at all. Paying expensive lobby costs is a deal, if you can profit via more folks buying up your plugin inventory. Lastly ... as to the reason for stickers being to sell PHEV's & BEV's ... well that's kind of right. The purpose of stickers for clean cars (CNG included) was to hopefully help clean up the smoggy LA basin. Selling/buying cars is just the means to the end. If HOV lanes grind to a halt in part due to more & more clean cars in the HOV lane - then the dirty cars spend more time going slow, and burning more gas (and that WAS the fiscal impact argued against the yellow stickers) - causing a need for more highway lanes - and the legislative goal becomes tenuous. I like my stickers, but solo HOV lane driving doesn't reduce commuter numbers/gridlock.
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The point of mentioning yellow and white stickers is because one of the reasons for allowing expiration was that solo drivers were clogging the HOV lanes. At 40k the green stickers is less than half. If you can produce a number for white stickers, I will continue to assume it is negligible compared to that number. My assumption which is totally pulled out from my behind because I don't have confirmed white stickers numbers is that the current program will put less vehicles in the HOV lanes than the yellow stickers. Therefore extension of the green stickers is more likely to pass.

I don't know what the original legislation for HOV lanes is. But if one of them is reduce smog, then the green stickers fit that requirement. The point of the Clean Air Vehicle program is to "promote and encourage development of newer plug-in hybrids and zero emission technology." The yellow stickers were expired because it was successful and had run its course. Prius is the best selling car in California. According to the text of SB-286, the automakers produce vehicles for which there is not enough demand. "New potential customers will be offered greater purchase incentive." At current pace green stickers will expire and not reach 40k.

You can take the argument for reducing or producing more smog another step. HOV lanes grind to a halt because of solo drivers. Smog increases.

The flip side is those solo drivers go in the regular lanes. There will be additional impact to congestion and smog on non HOV lanes. They will also be driving regular cars instead of hybrids, further increasing smog. And then adoption rate for hybrids is slower because there is less incentive to buy them. So even more smog. Manufactures are less likely to innovate hybrids because they do not sell as well as they do today. More smog. I don't like legislation. I don't know if this is all true. Again, pulling out from my rear end. All I know is CAFE requirements increased average fuel economy. That is a good thing. Is the Clean Air Vehicle program a good thing? It remains to be seen. I'm not going to argue if it is good or not because I haven't made up my mind. What I do know is the extension is most likely going to pass and PiP's will most likely not be stripped of the sticker. It's about as guaranteed as it can get.

 

Actually, when the yellow stickers expired there were several studies and articles about how congestion increased. This is because, without the solo HOV drivers (with stickers) the HOV lanes tend to be underutilized. More drivers, instantly moved back into the regular lanes backup up traffic.

It would be very difficult to do such a study with business as usual and traffic patterns changing, the economy changing, etc. But the yellow sticker expiration provided a perfect chance to study such effects, with all other variables near constant.

Mike

 

I think the Clean Air Vehicle program had a substantial impact in driving hybrid sales. This in turn proved to consumers that the technology was reliable, ultimately leading to millions of hybrid sales. For my part, my main reason for purchasing a plug-in Prius was the commuter lane access.

 

Others may have had noble motives, like lowering their carbon footprint and other environmental concerns, or lessening dependence on foreign oil. I just wanted the HOV access for my 25 mile each-way commute that I lost when the yellow decals expired.

 

Ditto. I bought a Sonata in 2009 instead of a hybrid because yellow stickers had expired. I was willing to pay original MSRP for a used one with yellow stickers but of course, none available. In 2012 I bought a PiP when the green stickers started. I don't know what I'd do in 2015 because the PiP would still be too new to replace but in 2018, I'm getting a BEV for the white stickers. My motivation is purely for solo HOV access.

 

I'm hoping by 2018 ill have enough to buy my model S!

 

I had noble motives for purchasing my 2010 Prius, but not for trading it for the 2012.

 

I have to admit… I too bought the PiP because my yellow stickers expired. Once I discovered that I can get better gas mileage if I stayed off the freeways, I changed my route to 10 miles freeway, 20 miles surface streets.

 

I've done a similar route mod for greater range.

'experts' of both both opponents and proponents provided 'proof' that congestion increases/decreased - so no .... just because you & I prefer one side's 'proof' over the other - and thus we kiss off the controverting 'proof' for no better reason other than that proof sucks, is sorta disengenuous.
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I'm sure it also varies by location...I didn't have yellow stickers...my observations (non-scientific ) led me to think traffic was worse. I know the HOV lanes where I drive are under utilized. I read about studies after this...again as an uninterested observer with no interest in getting a PIP and the green sticker program wasn't out yet.

Mike

 

The study showed that both main lanes and carpool lanes were slower after the yellow stickers were cancelled. That was my experience driving the carpool lane on the 405 in socal. I was in an actual carpool atthe time.

 

Just so you know the requirement of the previous HOV lane access (yellow sticker). 45 MPG gas engine efficiency and SULEV emission are required.

For the new stickers, Leaf, Tesla, other EVs and NGV have white sticker as gas efficiency isn't applicable.

For plugin hybrids with gas engine (green sticker), CARB relaxed on the 45 MPG gas engine requirement (else Volt won't qualify) and SULEV emission. 2010 Volt didn't qualify for the HOV lane because of it's tailpipe emission. This is still true for Volts sold outside the CARB emission states.

For plugin hybrids, it is not only about electric miles. It is also about gas efficiency and tailpipe emission.

Who are you to say someone with a short commute with PiP doesn't belong in the HOV lane?

 

Picking only one half the car's ability, weither battery size or MPG, is not meaningful for a PHEV. Cali wants to reduce emissions and gas usage (and they have clean electricity . The measure should be its overall or expected efficiency. Using volt stats, the median California Volt driver is at 205.11 MPG overall, which shows the decision to remove the 45MPG artificial limit was a wise choice. (Its warmer there than lots of places so generic EPA is not that meaningful).

I wonder what the MPG is of california PiPs are (location data no in the PiP spreadsheet but the median "tank" was only about 78MPG.

 

Interesting...I just looked at my stats...7136 miles and 35 gal of gas as of a few days ago. That's ~204 mpg. I've also used 895 kwh for 4739 of those miles. I'm actually amazed that that is about the median for CA volt drivers.


Mike

 

Were you surpised that you were median.. did you think you were above or below?

You were correct about comment and poor attempt at humor.. and I updated my post to remove it.

 

I'm surprised that in a PIP, with such a small battery, that I'm able to match the Volt median.

Mike