Featured Best answer I've seen yet from Toyota about going full EV

if it's any consolation, you could pick up a 3yr old, used 2017 Chevy Volt for mid $20k ... >50 ev miles, & 0-60mph ~ 6½ seconds ...
but charge sustain will be below 50 mpg .... maybe ~45mpg
Green Car 0-60 Times | 0 to 60 & Quarter Mile Specs for Eco-Friendly Electric & Hybrid Cars
They didn't shorten the charging speed/time into the 2-hour range until 2019, then after maybe ½year of production? Like way too many other small cars, canceled in preference to the ever growing population of land barges.
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11 secs on the incline (like a lot of hwy on ramps)
10 secs on the flat (like some hwy on ramps)
9 secs on a decline (like hardly any hwy on ramps)

ok I'm out

 

Boomers in barges is big now, I get that. I'm gradually becoming convinced that selling cars to younger people is going to require a radical "de-contenting" of the cars themselves, if I'm using the industry term correctly. They need to be a heck of a lot cheaper without losing much practicality.

To generalize, I believe there is a small fraction of the older cohort that wants hybrids and EVs. They value comfort, convenience, Made-in-USA stickers and relatively high performance. They had Priuseses, and now they're trading them for Teslas.

I also believe there is a large fraction of the younger cohort who want EVs. They won't be able to afford any of that fancy stuff for a while; and many of them are working to exhaust every other transportation possibility before committing to buying a car at all in the hopes that the EV they can afford to keep appears.

Which leads me to-

0-60 in 6.5 is fairly silly for a basic people hauler. GM apparently overshot with that design. They've made an EV to appeal to the narrow end of the older group, rather than the wider end of the younger group.

 

Me three, but getting coal rolled in one like that might not be too much fun.
But while the coal roller uses ten or twenty times the resources all day everyday and is proud of it, we can all be glad we are blazing a new trail away from that kind of lifestyle.

 

based on all the replies here, i would say building a popular bev at a price that would sell is not possible currently, and probably won't be for quite a few years, or at least until the miracle happens

 

Full self-driving may be a while out, but I'm betting that the next couple decades of V2V communication and dashcam technology will go a long way towards narcing out antisocial drivers. Gotta stop the acceleration arms race somewhere, it's not going anywhere good.

If nobody actually actually needs >0.08hp/lb of vehicle weight there's an incredible savings in building cars closer to 0.03hp/lb. The savings is at least threefold, in dollars to buy it, resources to build it and energy to run it.

 

Global sales results for October are not yet out but, in September, global electrified sales (HEV, PHEV, FCV) are up 22.7% YOY and up 17.6% YTD. Electrified vehicles were 21.8% of total Toyota/Lexus sales in Sept. In 2018, electrified vehicles were 17.1% of total sales.

In North America, September electrified sales were up 33.2% YOY and up 23.2% YTD. NA YTD electrified sales were 11.3% of total sales (vs 8.9% in the year 2018).

Toyota's hybrids are selling well despite total sales being down in 2019. That's why they are pushing hybrids right now.

 

sounds like they have their hands full trying to scrape up enough batteries for hybrids

 

Naw. They have more nimh production capacity than they need for hybrids. They do need lithium production
Toyota speeds up electric vehicle schedule as demand heats up - Reuters

 

I really appreciate everyone this is great I am learning so much here.

Nobody mentioned big oil, Rick Rickard at http://evtv.me/ thinks a conspiracy
from big oil in his article the Tesla conspiracy. Any comments appreciated.

 

and other factors
The oil industry vs. the electric car - POLITICO

2019/09/16
The oil industry vs. the electric car

"The oil industry is trying to crush the booming electric car movement.

Groups backed by industry giants like Exxon Mobil and the Koch empire are waging a state-by-state, multimillion-dollar battle to squelch utilities’ plans to build charging stations across the country. Environmentalists call the fight a reprise of the “Who Killed the Electric Car?” battles that doomed an earlier generation of battery-driven vehicles in the 1990s.

Oil-backed groups have challenged electric companies’ plans in 10 states, according to utility commission filings reviewed by POLITICO, waging regulatory and lobbying campaigns against the proposals. The showdown is taking place as utilities, eager to increase the demand for power, push for approval to build charging networks in locations such as shopping centers and rest stops in more than half the nation.

“Fossil fuel interests control 90 percent of the transportation fuel market in the U.S. and are really feeling threatened,” said Gina Coplon-Newfield, director of the electric vehicle initiative at the Sierra Club.

The counterattack involves an array of trade associations and industry-funded political groups representing every segment of the petroleum sector.

In the Midwest, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a trade group for gasoline makers, has filed comments against charging plans in Kansas and Missouri, and has opposed Colorado’s new zero-emission vehicle mandate as part of a “Freedom to Drive” coalition of auto dealers and oil groups. The typical consumer, they say, should not have to pay for incentives or charging stations that mainly benefit people wealthy enough to afford cars like Teslas."

 

My understanding of why Toyota is not going further than minimum regulatory requirements is they believe basically electric vehicles will be part of a climate strategy, not a consumer-driven transition. They seem to be right, California is struggling to meet even its modest ZEV targets.

The reason they still back hydrogen is they think such a strategy (if we ever muster the will to do it) would include transitioning off of fossil fuels for electricity, which will in turn require massive storage capability for the electrical grid. They believe meeting the needs of both the grid and all ~2 billion automobiles on the road isn't feasible with current battery technology.

Or at least, that's the story. Much of Asia seems to agree, but not so much the west.

 

Toyota is focused on Japanese group think and infrastructure.

Japan's government had a low emission vehicle program going back to the '70s supporting the development of such. Later phases of it included direct subsidies for the first Prius sales. BEVs were explored under it, and some were offered for sale. This was under the time of the EV1, when NiMH was cutting edge battery technology, and many of the BEVs available used lead-acid. They did not sell well.

Those results have some still thinking that only cheap, short range BEVs will work. Toyota's most recent attempt at an in house BEV for the US was the iQ EV. It had a range well under 50 miles, maybe less than 40. It seems like the idea of a BEV like a Tesla wasn't considered possible.

Then there is Japan's electric grid. Compared to the US, it is low power. For around half the residences there, a Prime would take over ten hours to charge, and faster Level 2 couldn't be installed in such homes. BEVs need more public charging. So their thinking on short range BEVs might be true for Japan.

Japan isn't shifting from fossil fuels. Their initial plan called for nuclear power for electricity and hydrogen. That changed, and now both are coming for fossil fuels. Brown coal is being reformed in Australia for their hydrogen.

Renewable electric will need grid level storage. Hydrogen and fuel cells might end up playing a part. There are also battery technologies being developed for such that aren't suitable for transportation, and wouldn't compete for Li-ion battery materials. There is also some really low tech options.There are thousands more potential sites for pumped water than previously thought. Simply hoisting large weights up into the air are being studied for energy storage.

 

True, there are other options for energy storage, though hydrogen has the advantage of also being useful for energy transport in the same form. One example is Japan acquiring hydrogen from Australia, both from electrolysis using solar power and brown coal.

I think it's oversimplified or even naive to think Toyota is only considering Japanese infrastructure. Toyota has completely different strategies for China, Europe, and the US; even the width and materials of the wheels is different in different markets (wider in snowy markets, more durable in developing markets).

They are looking at the existing regulation and infrastructure in each country and see there's no need to do anything at all for the US market, hybrids are the best for China and Europe, short range EVs have a niche market in Japan and India, and either fuel cells or solid-state batteries will mature by the time there's any realistic chance of that changing. They also seem to grasp that there's a market for luxury long-range BEV (upcoming to Lexus) while understanding the fact that there's still little market for a mass-market one. The only place I think they may be wrong is in northern Europe where they have little market share anyway.

 

Here is the link for non believers :
Sales, Production, and Export Results | Sales, Production, and Export Results | Profile | Company | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

On the right side there are pdfs, scroll down to "Sales of HV and FCV"

A rough projection for 2019 is 1.9 millions hybrids sold by Toyota.

 

I don't think we are seeing a "booming electric car movement" nation-wide. The only movement that has been booming so far is the Tesla one. Otherwise, there is bunch of commercially infeasible EV's - either undesirable, or unaffordable, or both, and always unprofitable - propped by gov't incentives and mandates, and broadly ignored by the US drivers. All this is 8 years after the debut of the original Leaf.

This wouldn't be the first time in history when the image of a enemy within the gates is invoked to both rally the supporters and explain away the failures. The eagerly demonized "Koch Empire" doesn't send secret agents to prevent EV drivers from visiting public L3s where they are abundant - the cost, the poor reliability and the inconvenience do (plenty examples, based on 27 months of BEV use)

The real question is, how many BEV's does an L3 stall need to serve daily to pay for itself (both capex and opex) and begin generating some profit in let's say 2 years? Because if this were possible today, the "oil industry" would start plopping DCFC's at each gas station yesterday.

Patience, my friends. In less than 2 years we'll finally see a nice collection of viable and marketable plug-ins, and the things will start to change rapidly.

 

Around where I work, there's Chevy, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, VW, BMW and Tesla dealers which sell plug-ins. I've been driving plug-ins to work for 7 years now and still haven't influenced anyone there to look into it buying one. There's not even so much as a hybrid in the lot. No conspiracy, they just aren't interested.

 

I am trying to picture myself the oil industry ninjas, smuggling a horrible driver's seat into the Bolt, ripping out the battery TMS from the Leaf, and spiking the coffee with hallucinogens at the i3 design office.

I can corroborate your "not interested" observations. I split my time between Loudoun County and the Shenandoah Valley - two different automotive worlds, I would say. I know a number of Tesla and Prius drivers, and I don't know anyone with at least a nominal interest in the current choice of non-Tesla EVconoboxes and oEVrpiced fancymobiles. Folks are waiting for a good value for money electric CUV and the PHEV truck.

 

Too much of a price gap between e-scooter/e-bike and EV cars.

Plenty of younger people have embraced the bikes and scooters, but their knees won't last forever and eventually they'll want cages.

 

we should not forget that hybrid / EV registration taxes in most states are copied verbatim off Alecs website. Alec lists EV and hybrid model legislation on their site.

Further republican groups like IHS Markit are making money and gathering private data from state DMVs that cannot identify cars subject to the new taxes by providing a shielded database of who gets to pay what license fee. In this state to get your license you have to agree that the DMV can sell your data.

The fair share narratives are pushed, funded and written by these same groups as a boon to commercial interests.

we should not allow private entities to write law for us or handle our data.