Featured Beginning of the end for the Prius?

twas ever thus...

 

Sounds like Mrs. Bisco is the American Express card of the 21st Century .

 

Outside of Japan only a small part of the automotive market is willing to pay a substantial premium for non plug-in hybrid tech. Toyota can definitely continue profitably make the prius for export to the US because of that Japanese market, but competition will keep the numbers down. It won't be the leader it was in the gen II/gen III. Agree the current styling exercise is a fail, but competition and low oil prices probably hurt it more. When gas prices rise again my guess is outside of japan the plug-ins will lead.

It's simply economics. Tesla should be able to drive batteries at the pack level down to $100/kwh in the next car design cycle. Let's take a nice round 10 kwh which may cost tesla $1000 to make a pack, lets say toyota could buy these packs and needs to make a profit say $3000 to the customer including a 6.6 kwh charger. Using just current tech that is about 150 lbs and could provide about 60 hp. Take the new dynamic force toyota 2L atkinson engine, and you have a 215 hp car. The current battery is not liquid cooled which makes it simpler but more expensive. The phev control laws are easier than hybrid, and can be made to give better feel. I think that car might be a better value proposition outside of japan. Design it from the ground up to handle the battery as part of the frame with a better cg, and with suspension for the weight, maybe 16" wheels and tires no options.

Otherwise competition - corolla/auris/camry hybrid makes sales decline even at toyota dealerships in North America and Europe tough. That corolla hybrid will benefit from lower cost US production when it is introduced next year.

 

I was hoping you'd weigh in john - what with so many of the car model's sales diminishing - and many of the Tesla buyers coming from Toyota, and Model 3 sales increasing more than all prior Tesla sales ... (even before their least expensive version is available) do you think Toyota will hang tight with Prius until gas prices rebound?

 

know your audience

 

(sigh ... call me thick) well .... i don't get what a manufacturer's 'audience' exactly means. I'd think any sales that a dealer /manufacturer can get is a potential sale /audience. If so - why not just call it what it is ... a customer. If that is the case ...
directing ... leading ?
The highest (leading) MPGe is the model 3 ...... albeit not the cheapest until the lowest range 3 gets released in a few months ... even so - sales are way above expectations - & 'directing' ? pluginns are all over the place, so no one's really taking off in a manner that can be called 'directing' the market ... right? as some have more cargo storage, or more battery size, or more gas mpg's, or more sportyness etc ... so yeah - plugin hybrids seem to be in a state of appealing to many different buyer needs .... none being off-the-chart outstanding, evidence by diminishing sales.
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Whose expectations?

Bob Wilson

 

the nay-sayers .... and even some of the ambivalent

 

my expectations (hopes really) won't be reached until the half million preorders are cleared and robust sales continue, along with profitability and a strong balance sheet

 

& Prius drivers are evolving. A Prius went past me, 20+mph over the speed limit & really set sail, disappearing over the hilltop ahead. As I topped the hill, a cop had the Prius stopped for speeding. I have had 7 such incidents (not just Prius cars) previously occur to me. I would recommend NOT speeding past me to anyone in the future.

 

That's quite the loaded question. I have no idea what either "hang tight" or "rebound" actually mean, nor is there any type of reference to what the no answer would be.

Attempting to answer, already get my thoughts on a regular basis. My latest awaits the Detroit auto show...

 

Naysayers move the goal posts. Tesla is gone into future & the rest of the auto industry is saying, "....me too....wait up.... me too?....." Followed by empty echos.
The multiplied problem I see is the same problem Prius had......Prius is a $30,000+ car & Tesla is still a $45,000+ car...... & with designed gov't rebates that less rich people can't fully access. Yeah, electrics are still a rich man's sport. But, our old cars that sold, "two new for $14,000" & our sub-$13,000 Elantra will serve into the decades ahead, till the auto industry serves the people, not just the rich.

 

Actually the Prius is a 24K vehicle ( for a non-plugin model )...and that is before discounts!

Anyway, my sentiments exactly...IF Tesla can get costs down to 'average joe' levels then the conversation can continue. Until then they will clearly be perceived as a luxury vehicle ( and it is clear this is what Tesla wants...for now ). As for other electric vehicles...it is clear that the 'average joe' masses just don't want 'em...not enough range, etc... And it will be interesting if Telsa ever offers a pickup truck model. I'll wager it will be extremely difficult to break into the 'truck culture' scene that has become so prevalent these days ( you know...the Tesla 'ICEing' people ).

And that brings up the fact that fuel prices have some play in this as well. With fuel prices the way they are now, I'm sure many electric vehicle owners have to do mental gymnastics to justify their electricity costs these days. I'll certainly agree that these low fuel prices are not sustainable though... 'the math' will certainly change when prices go up again.

 

when the Prius Gen II hit the market, our '04 Prius was commonly referred to - as being too expensive .... critics said its higher premium didn't pencil out, weighed against $3 & & $4 high gas prices, & yet the wait list was long for the car. By 2005 - the used Prius made it possible for those not willing/able to buy new.
The point is - even the Prius was considered a "rich man's sport" back then ... at least buying new.
Wind the clock 1½ decades forward. Different dynamics. Cheep gas. Hybrid tech may be feeling dated, to early adapters. Might be wrong, but if i grasp john's theory/outlook/understanding - Toyota/Prius is hoping to even get to 'mainstream' buyers - not just early adapters. But the oil industry has made cost of fuel virtually free for many commuters, by dumping their prices. Hybrid sales got tepid. SUV & pickup sales take off. So much for appealing to the mainstream buyers. Maybe Toyota or others weren't forward-looking enough - maybe make a hybrid pickup ... at least enough inventory to see if it would compete with our cheap gas/fickled buyer's market?
btw, buyers often poor more money into an SUV/pickup, then a car, so price doesn't seem to get labeled a "rich man's sport" when applied to the land barge. Wonder why.
And then there's Model 3 skyrocket sales .... & it's not just Audi Mercedes BMW using the word Conquest sales. Forget the Prius for a moment - even the sales gap between the model 3 & traditional Toyota & Hondas is narrowing.
Someone earlier made the point that just because someone buys a Prius years ago, doesn't mean that they can't spent more or that they don't want more. Iduno - it may just be that at the time, with different market dynamics what ever is best - is the best thing going right now.
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Meanwhile Tesla is selling Model 3's in huge quantities, 25,250 delivered in Dec. 2018 alone. Prius (liftback) has never come close to a 25k units sold month. Toyota can continue on with Prius, but it's best days are behind. Looking and driving the way Prius does vs a hot looking and sharp driving, quick Model 3, Prius will fade.

How many Prius liftbacks + Primes sold in all of 2018? 9k/mo x 12 about 80k for year? Model 3 finished over 139k and they were barely producing in January.

not counting Prius c and v, they will both keel over

 

Greetings, my former employer had the Mercur mine 'near' Tooele (pronounced 'ta will a' for those onlookers who are curious) But I worked 50 miles out of Elko, NV at Goldstrike. (290 miles from Reno, 290 miles from SLC, 290 miles from Boise, and 420 miles from Las Vegas)

And those distances limit what kind of car/truck you should buy. Pure ICE can get to civilization and back, Hybrid (with or without plug in) can get to civilization and back. most BEVs cannot get to civilization, almost none could get you back. (50 miles to the Elko Supercharger, 90 miles to the Wendover Supercharger, then 240 miles to the Price Supercharger) No hydrogen anywhere near Elko, 322 miles away in Truckee, CA.

Selling electric cars for urban areas is easy. Selling electric cars that can, with planning, cross rural area is hard. Selling electric cars to work in rural areas is even harder.

In 2012, a lady here where I currently live had a Leaf flatbedded in. At that time, the closest l2 charger was in Jackson, 100 miles away. The EPA range of that Leaf was 84 miles.

 

Toyota's and most of the industry, most of the stock analysts and car analysts, etc.

To put it in perspective in 2004 the prius blew away expectations and sold 54,000 units in the US, 125,700 world wide. The tesla model 3 this year sold 139,798 in the US and about 9000 in canada. The canadian sales were to keep under the tax credit limit, and sales would have been much higher but the factory had manufacturing issues for the first half of the year. Many people did not belive tesla could make that many cars, or if they made them that they could sell them. Demand should be strong for the first half of this year as tesla tries to satify deposits in north america and starts shipping to europe. The second half of the year when the US tax break drops from $3750 to $1875 is less certain, people may push orders in the first half to get the bigger tax credit.

Toyota Prius Family Sales Figures | GCBC
87,590 for the full year on the liftback, prime, c and v in the US and 7241 through the first 10 months of the year in canada. The prius is still the best selling car in japan though.

 

just for fun - & remembering my dad used to go prospecting way out there before I was born. Wondering how much the surrounding population grew, I got rough stat's in a triangular area around goldstrike. In that 12,000² mile area, the population is so sparse, you would have well over 2 acres per person if you spread them out. Yep, just 1 twelve thousandth of the US population. We know folks in even more remote areas .... 'Yack' Montana, for example. All that to say, yes - there are places so remote, it will be a long long time before there are 2 dozen superchargers, much less people. There are still places where it's better to have a pack mule. Yes, car chargers go where most of the people go. Even so - there ARE Tesla Chargers around that area, I-80. - & iirc, the distance between Winnemucca and Elmo Nevada is ~ 130-135miles. So, even charging ½ way to nowhere is becoming more & more possible.

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Elko in 1980, 8,000 people
1990, 15,000
2000, 20,000
2010, 27,000

The long drive is from Wendover to a supercharger in Utah.

 

Plugshare shows Lakepoint Utah Supercharger is only 102 miles away. Even Ogden is just another 100+ miles beyond that one - if your bladder can hold out.

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