You're preaching to the choir brother! I'm with you. The thing is that I'm realistic about the overall level of fear and ignorance in our society and the hurdles that will create to widespread acceptance of EVs.
I think you are correct. There will be hurdles and people will complain and seek to blame someone or some country (like Iran or Venezuela) for not providing enough oil. Sure, some idiots will likely run out of energy and be stuck somewhere. I bet it only happens once or twice before they learn their lesson.
I would think that the problem you are describing would have made the news when the EV1 was being leased. One point is overlooked. Electric cars are not going to flood the market in just a couple of years. The naysayers will be out in force, but not actually experiencing any problems (since they will not be driving one) and the early drivers will be quite knowledgable on sensible EV driving. EVs will be very hard to get (like the Tesla) and this will ensure that the first years are with smart drivers, not the average joe. For the first 5 or so years, it's going to be like the Prius "problems" of battery failures and Nickel Mining.....lots of press of a non issue while the waiting lists are very long.
ya know. it would not be much of project to install outlets on the freeway even if set every few miles apart. heck, make em coin operated. no need for a freebie here. some of the freeways have power already. granted, most dont, but power is nearby, there is usually available land to run lines (granted it would be much more expensive to do so inside cities because of limited available real estate, but HEY! most of that section of road has street lights, so power is already there) sure it would be a hassle to have to sit there for an hour or so. from experience though an hour should give you at least 5-6 miles of distance. betcha it better than walking a mile or two in the rain... at night... with a kid... with a broken leg... during a flareup of your arthritis... ya know?
I believe that the scenario you described above is exactly correct. Many non-issues in the press while there is a huge waiting list of people waiting for their EV or PHEV. In 2005 the media was writing about those "potential" replacement costs for Prius NiMH batteries. It hasn't been an issue. The same is proving true for the Hymotion battery for the plug-in Prius. The chemistry has reached the point that the battery will likely last the life of the car. After 3,000 cycles in testing, they are at 85% of original capacity. That is about once per day for 10 years. The Tesla Roadster battery is estimated to be at 80% of original capacity after 125,000 miles. That is with no loss of speed. Only a loss of upper limit range from the original 244 miles. So you will likely still have a car that can get 190+ miles after 125,000 miles.
Excellent! I'm so glad you wrote this - not only because it saves me the time and effort of responding to the last post line-by-line, but because I think this points out the crux of the problem/confusion/disagreement here. Fear and ignorance are one thing. Real hurdles are another. I'm every bit as "realistic" about these as you are. I just make a bigger distinction between these two ideas. You alluded to the fear and ignorance in your post above... and how they need to be addressed as if they were real hurdles. And there's where I take issue. Yes we absolutely need to address the fear and ignorance. But I personally see little value in addressing them by pretending that they're real hurdles. Mostly, I believe that the fear and ignorance will address itself - much like it has happened with the Prius (and even gasoline cars 100 years ago!). In fact, I don't see any other valid way of addressing it. If people are going to fear running out of juice in the middle of nowhere - as if that situation will suddenly leap upon them with no warning - then they will have that fear until they have experienced it otherwise. No amount of power outlets strung along the road, or trucks filled with super caps to give you a dump charge is going to change that fear. (Hey, if it DOES change that fear, then neither one of those things is harder to do than build gas stations as we've managed to do). There are some people who insist that they couldn't possible ride a bicycle without falling over. Until they try it and realize that with just a bit of effort, it isn't anything to fear. The same thing will slowly, eventually happen with EVs. Unless, of course, we keep telling people that an EV might suddenly, accidentally, without warning - leave you stranded and left to die. We did a quick calculation and found that for the price of just one full-on self-sufficient hydrogen fueling station, we could install fast chargers every 10 miles on all interstate freeway in CA. Really, this isn't brain surgery. There are people who think that EVs are scary because they might suddenly run out of charge - and many of these same people think that hydrogen cars are a GREAT idea. Where the hell do they fill THEM up when they run out of those little H's? All the light poles around here are 220V. And with a 220V charge (30A) a modern EV can achieve over 20 miles per hour of charge. Obviously a high-current fast charger would blow that away. I know!
Perhaps you're right...as slowly as EVs are likely to be released it's likely that the fear/ignorance issues will fade much as many of the fear/ignorance issues of hybrids have faded as that market has slowly grown. But you know as well as I do...and we're reminded by the trolls and so-called pundits every day...that much fear and ignorances about even hybrids prevails yet today. That will be twice or more as significant with EVs. A poster said we didn't see the issues I'm concerned about appear with the EV1--true...but there were hardly any on the roads. My concern is about when EVs hit the mass market...20k-50k a year rolling out.
So it looks as though HyMotion and I are the only two to have actually commented on the article. You all have been talking about this for two days amongst yourselves. Sorry to break it to you but they probably aren't following this thread.
The media is giving so much talk to the "problem" of running out of juice in an EV, that by the time Joe Public can actually afford to buy a freeway-capable EV, it will have been drummed into his head that he needs to plug it in every night and he needs to check his SOC every morning, and watch his range. This will cause early buyers to self-select for people willing to do this. When gas shortages and long gas lines start to appear, the "risk" of running out of juice will seem trivial compared with waiting 24 hours in a gas line. Evan: You seem to be arguing contradictory points: 1. People won't want to buy an EV because of the risk of running out of juice; and 2. People won't be sufficiently aware of that risk to always plug in their car. I think that the whole aura surrounding EVs will address both issues: People will be so aware of the range limitations that it will seem commonplace that you need to plug in. And of course, technology will increase the range until the issue becomes moot. Sure, you cannot carry a 5-gallon can of electricity to your car, but 90% of the population today cannot carry a 35-pound can for two miles. That's what tow trucks are for. If I ran out of gas today, I would not walk to a gas station. I'd call a tow truck. Today they'd bring me a can of gas. With an EV they'd tow me to a charging station. As for hitchhiking, last time I tried that it took an hour and a half to get a lift, and then the driver turned out to be intoxicated. Very scary. Would your wife hitchhike if she ran out of gas? I think she'd probably call a wrecker. With an EV, same. Early adopters will be aware of the issues. Later adopters will have learned before they switch. And once the gas lines start becoming serious, the "problem" of running out of juice will just be something people have to deal with, or not drive a car. The public fear of EVs is a non-issue because there are enough people who want one anyway that early production will be snapped up, and by the time production can supply the general public, EVs will no longer seem exotic and scary. Just like with the Prius. In 2004 a lot of people were afraid of battery failures, but that was okay, because there were 6-month waiting lists. Now the Prius is just a high-mileage car to most buyers. Something similar will happen with EVs, once they become available at an affordable price. Darell: Was the bicycle reference aimed at me? I never learned to ride a bike as a kid. I learned when I was 30. I rode a bike for about ten years, but fell down from time to time. Fortunately I lived out in the country. When I did ride in town I nearly got killed several times due to my poor riding skills. I never could keep a straight line, or stop suddenly without falling. Some of us really cannot ride a bike safely. I was around 40 when I quit riding due to an overuse injury (an inflamed i.t. band) and when I tried again some years later, found that I had forgotten how. I could learn all over again, but now that I live in town, it would be suicide.
That is why I think the PHEV (Hymotion Prius, GM Volt) will be a great plug-in transition technology. People will gain familiarity with the issues of plugging in, while still having the backup of gasoline to extend the range. There will be no issue with range fears of an PHEV. That will help people get a comfort level with the next logical step, the pure EV. With a PHEV they get 95% of the good parts of going EV with none of the negatives of limited range of slow charging messing up your schedule. The only criticism of the PHEV is the high cost of having two drivetrain systems in the same car and the extra battery cost.
Not what I'm saying. Point 1 is correct for some people...they will have too much fear to buy. What I'm saying is that the group 2 people who do buy and run into issues will publicise those issues and further enforce the fear in group 1. Here's what will happen...in some cases. I am a huge EV fan and I buy my EV. I'm the primary driver and it serves me perfectly for my usual and daily needs. My wife has her SUV b/c she likes it, we need it for various more adventurous activities. My annual week-long troutfest comes and we need to swap vehicles so I can haul my fishing and camping gear for the 100+ mile trip down to fish camp. During the week, despite my previous instructions, my wife forgets to plug in one night, she has no choice but to drive it the next morning anyway as she has to get the kids to school and do rounds at the hospital. She also has multiple trips that ultimately combine to exceed the range of the EV. She's driving from the hospital to pick up the kids from daycare before the 6pm deadline and it runs out of juice. She'd seen the warnings but didn't know what else to do. Now she's 5 miles from the kids, nowhere near a plug, no husband in town to call, doesn't know anything about "letting the charge float back up"--I'm on the river out of cell coverage. The local tow trucks don't know squat and she's without a way to get to the kids. AAA can't just drop in a gallon of gas for her. If you don't think this is going to happen you're delusional. It may well happen in my household just as I described. I'm not trying to use this as any sort of arguement against EVs...I'm using it to say that WE EV enthusiasts have a lot of work ahead of us to knock down the hurdle illusions and to find ways to simplify the charging process and to speed it up. But you don't have to round on patients at the hospital, or pick up kids at daycare by a set time when you're single parenting, or have patients waiting for appointments in your clinic. Many people simply can't afford to wait around for an hour or two for their car to charge up.
I've always thought Top Gear was entertainment and grouped their opinions along with the "performance" auto magazines. However, their ability to convince the Teslas of the future to send a car to them for a show is surely impaired. I'm surprised they thought it worth it.
The first 4 or 5 minutes of the review were VERY positive. Jeremy was gushing about how fast it was. Then the bias came in. I think Tesla did fine. I have seen other cars on Top Gear get trashed far more than the Tesla did.
If (and I do mean if) there is going to be bad PR over the inability to refuel a stranded EV, can you imagine how much bigger the issue will be in calming the fears about hydrogen as an available fuel? The roadside infrastructure of EVs is all but complete compared to H2.
That is what makes that episode of Top Gear to silly. In part one they dump on the Tesla for range and recharge issues. Then in part two they do a total puff piece on the Honda hydrogen car with no mention of any potential problems.
Aw, heck no it wasn't aimed at you. And now you've gone and screwed up that comparison, haven't you!?
Evan: The scenario you described definitely will happen. You wife will have to call for a tow, and pay for a taxi to pick up the kids, and call in to the hospital that she cannot make it. It will be a royal pain in the nice person. But because your wife is an intelligent person, she'll blame herself for forgetting to plug in, and will have learned her lesson. Now she'll be ready for her own EV. Meanwhile, your fishing buddy's wife is not so bright and will complain that the car's no good, and people will tell her, "Well, why didn't you plug it in, you ninny?" because by then most people will know that. And the people waiting 24 hours in gas lines will tell her, "What are you complaining about? It was your own fault. We're stuck with our gas cars and there's no gas!" And pretty soon, your wife, having learned her lesson, is going to demand the EV, and stick you with the stinker and the gas lines. It's a non-issue. Not because it won't happen, but because by the time the EV enthusiasts have all gotten their EVs and you can actually see one available on a car lot, people will have come to realize how much more convenient it is to plug in at home than to have to stop at a gas station and pump smelly, spilly gas. Keep in mind that all the time the nay-sayers were bad-mouthing the Prius with disinformation, Toyota was selling every Prius they could build and there were still waiting lists. It will be the same with EVs. People will have the fears and the complaints you speak of, and all those bad things you speak of will happen, but car companies will still sell every EV they can build. And by the time there are any to actually see on a car lot, only a few disgruntled hold-outs will continue to oppose them, and by then nobody will pay them any attention. The issue is not public resistance. The issue is getting a major company to build freeway-capable EVs in quantity. Right now there's just the expensive Roadsters and a lot of short-range, slow-speed cars like the Zenn and the Xebra.
Bicycles are great. They are cheap, efficient, and provide much-needed exercise. But except for conditioned athletes, they are slower and have less range than a stock Zap Xebra, and only an acrobat could ride one in Spokane today. And when it rains you get wet. We need to have dedicated bicycle routes, entirely separate from car lanes, in all cities. We need promotion and tax incentives and bonuses for people who commute by bicycle. But just as not everyone can use a Xebra, not everyone can use a bicycle.
oh he is definitely right. look at the posts on PC now "i ran out of gas after only 400 miles!!" "car dies only 20 miles after last pip started blinking" so you can immediately see, the range of an EV, whether it be 50 miles or 500 miles, for some, it will still be an issue. forget the obvious benefit to reducing the trade imbalance, recycling money spent here on US soil, clean air, quite transportation, etc... FDR said it best, the only we have to fear.... and as far as EV's go. despite MAJOR limitations on size, speed, battery tech, etc... all EV 's (at least the ones ABOVE golf cart status) are simply on backorder. even with $1.65 gas, Zenn's, Miles, etc. are still being sold as fast as they can be made and that will be true for all decent BEV's. **edit** hmmm. several posts happened since i opened this thread.... but, lets face it, EV's will evolve based on customer needs. if forgetting to plug in becomes an issue, most will be made to either warn the driver to plug in, or some sort of inductive charging system will incorporate an automatic arm to charge the vehicle as soon as its parked. the technology to do this, i m fairly sure is already available. the day when 90% of parking spots are charging stations and gas vehicles are relegated to the back corner due to "recent" studies showing their exhaust to be toxic to humans is a day that will happen and hopefully in my lifetime...
