Featured As gas prices have dropped, so have owner's EV/hybrid loyalty

you mean like the new 700hp dodge Hellcat? well yea, beating that kind of raw horse power would be .... eh, ludicrous

The story is partly written for drama. It's not that ALL plugin sales are in the tank. The plug-in manufacturer above is in the midst of record sales. And their future offering already has deposits that rivel Toyota's #1 yearly seller, the Camry. Most plugins have either meager range, or the sense of inadequate value to cost.
.

 

shame the new volt looks like a 6 year old civic.

 

I much prefer the styling of the 2nd generation Volt to that of the 1st generation. And it comes in a really nice blue, too.

 

I prefer the Gen 1 design, but I don't mind the new one.

I'm drawn to the blue color as well, though the red doesn't look half-bad either. I wouldn't mind having the Gen 2 Volt battery in my Gen 1 Volt, even though GM already said they're incompatible.

 

Why I'm driving my Prius into the ground, only had it for 6 months, but already at 11,000 Miles...it use to take me nearly a year to drive that much. Kinda worried about the batteries longevity living in Texas, but if they're gonna fail anyway in 10 years, I'm gonna get my monies worth...love this car for frugal traveling, incredible gas mileage and I can sleep in the back with a/c running and not burn much gas, it makes a great camper!

 

From this graph - it looks like things may be getting better as this year rolls along;



Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
.

 

It is not enough to look at just gas/diesel prices but also the plug-in cost driver, the cost per battery Ahr. GM's revelation of ~$140/kwh when not too long ago, it was 5-8 times higher?

It would also help to look at the depreciation of plug-ins. I'm looking at $28k for what today retails at $52k. But we're seeing similar, "falling off the cliff" new-car depreciations for plug-ins.

Musk has simply projected the Model 3 expected battery price and it looks like a reasonable bet. Especially because his battery factory gives him a way to value-add raw battery material into final product that he buys at wholesale.

Bob Wilson

 

A redesigned Volt, Sonata PHEV, and Model X are the current new comers to the plug in market. By the end of the year, there also be the Ioniq/Niro plug ins, Optima PHEV, Prime, and i3 with longer range, plus some other low sales luxury models.

The rapid depreciation is being pushed by the incentives for new cars, and rapid improvement of battery performance and cost. When incentives end for a company, will their plug ins depreciate less, or still drop as customers switch to a brand still getting them?

 

or is it concern on the part of consumers about aging batteries?

 

it's likely there'll be a growing aftermarket for traction packs - just as it was with prius pack ... aftermarket people started pulling salvage cars apart for the good modules & reassembled rebuilt packs for on the cheap.

don't forget the mitsu plug-in SUV ... the reason it's taking so long to get here, is because its popularity in the European & Asian markets have kept it from getting enough batteries to deliver to the US.

.

 

Could be, but consumers once worried more about aging transmissions and engines than they do now. Right now, the possible $10k in incentives for plug ins in some states is really undercutting the slightly used, almost new pre-owned plug in market.

With the repeated push backs, I've taken a 'wait 'til it shows up at the dealer' view on the Outlander PHEV.

 

until rebuilt traction packs are warrantied with labor, or new packs fall significantly in price, it will be an issue. combine the low price of new with incentives to the high cost of a replacement pack in used, and it's a double whammy. but a lot of people buying new don't think about resale value.

 

GM is charging around $3500 for a refurbished Volt pack. They want the old pack for study. Nissan seems to also charge below cost for a replacement pack for the same reasons. In light of what some serious transmission and engine work can cost, the prices aren't bad. Then you should factor in the savings in maintenance work that a BEV will provide.

I wouldn't worry about the pack in a PHEV, unless you would also have reason to worry about the one in a non-plug hybrid. The emission warranties mean the manufacturer has to have a buffer within the battery's capacity for long life.

In regards to BEVs, you shouldn't get one that just meets your daily range requirement, for many reasons. One is that the repeated deep discharge isn't good for any battery.

While the traction packs in these cars will eventually need to be refurbished or replaced, the same is true of the packs in hybrids. I think it will pan out that most will be approaching the 100k mile mark or farther when they do.

 

agreed, but the general buying public isn't as aware as you are, and you have to throw labor in on top of that.
when you look at the price of used volts, but then think, what if i have to drop 5k into a battery? it can be scary. and what is the rebuilt warranty?

 

Seriously considered a Leaf. But driving it to my Final Destination was a problem.

 

Yes, but that won't always be the case. When the federal tax credits are gone, another 2 to 3 years for GM would have passed with more data on the battery's longevity. Some will still doubt, but some still doubt it in regards to hybrids.

There are likely very few people left thinking an engine needs a rebuilt at 100K miles. The same will come to pass for traction batteries.

 

agreed. the sooner the better. but first, plug ins have to catch on. as the market develops, everything will scale appropriately.

 

that is a bad analogy. you can fire up a low mile engine made half a century or so (if it was stored right), and it'll come back to life. batteries don't care about miles, they care about time. they start failing after 10 years and will be probably useless after 15 years. i feel sorry for people buying old hybrid and electric cars, because they pay good money for something near or after the expiration date.

 

i'm less than 35 K from that point. Still getting 60 miles at 60 MPH. And the (so far 15% capacity loss) degradation isn't linear. It's slowing down. Best of all is - charging off fully amortized home solar means less than 5% use of public charging .
.

 

So I was researching BMW i3-Rex and found an eBay listing for a single module:

• eBay item number: 262401871396
• $2,338.20 - 8 required, $18,705.60 total
• 22kWh battery, $850.25 / kWh
• 
  
• 5Ahr, 7.4V RC, 37 wHr (#151875486171)
• 37wHr -> 0.037 kWh @$56.01
• $1513.78 / kWh
• 
  
• 50Ah, 12V, 600 wHr (12V 50 amp-hour Lithium Iron Phosphate lithium ion battery
  packs)
• 600wHr -> 0.6 kWh @$769
• $1281.67 / kWh
• $250 / kWh reported Tesla batteries

Source: BU-1003: Electric Vehicle (EV) – Battery University

The cost of an EV battery has come down to about $350/kWh, but Tesla managed to lower the price to $250/kWh using the 18650, a popular cell of which 2.5 billion were made in 2013. The 18650 in the current Tesla models is an unlikely choice as the cell was designed for portable devices such as laptops. Available since the early 1990s, the 18650 cell is readily available at a low cost.​

Bob Wilson