Featured Aptera EV Update

That may be sooner than most people think.

Right now I'm seeing cars becoming prohibitively expensive. When I was young I could and did buy cars that were in the few hundreds of dollars. Sure, I had to work to get them working ok, even rebuilding the engine. But where there's a will there's a way.

But I don't see that anymore. I can't help my friends fix their transmissions and engines anymore. I can't just hone the cylinders in the Prius and throw on a pack of new gaskets and call it a day. I tried replacing a throttle body for a friend once. That was a complete disaster as I needed a special tool only for that line of vehicles to program it in.

I'm getting to the point I don't see any benefit in buying a used car anymore and COVID prices definitly haven't helped. If my car died today I might as well as get a new car. But one problem, I can't afford one. Most people I know can't afford a new car. And rent doubling and other price hikes in the past three years hasn't helped either.

I'm to the point that if my car died tomorrow I might just go without a car. I already have friends who that's the way it is for them (and they're still paying off the loan on their lemon used cars!)

We need cheap cars! Either that, or cars with really good waranties. 15,000 miles per year is 150,000 miles in 10 years. I don't want me or any of my friends to have to go out, buy a car with 100,000 miles on it for nearly the price of a new car and find it needs a $6,000 repair!

80% of AMI is $56,000 in my area. That's not much more than $4,000 per month. Rent is growing past $2,000 per month. The cheapest mortgages are slightly less at $1,900 per month. That doesn't include heating, water, trash, etc which amounts to about $200 total average. Insurance is nearly $200 per month. Gasoline is almost at $4 per gallon again. I'm averaging 20mpg in the winter. I'm spending $250 on fuel per month! Add it all up and it's hard to pay a $200 per month car loan. What about tires and maintenance and repairs? If I needed a car tomorrow I'd want to go for a new car. But could I afford $600 per month on a $30,000 car? With a payment like that I'd have $800 per month left for food, savings, phone, internet, clothing, car maintenance, car repairs and anything else that miscelaneous. Or I could go get a used car for half the price and probably end up like so many with a lemon that needs a $6,000 repair.

 

I did the calculation myself of whether it was worth it to own a car a couple years ago when my catalytic converter got stolen and my car was waiting at the shop for over a month for Toyota to send one. So I compared owning a car with taking the bus everywhere I need to go. While it will obviously work out differently for different people, the money I would save by taking the bus was notably less than the earning opportunity cost imposed by the bus schedule. And of course it’s also more convenient to have a car. So I’ll plan to keep driving a car and keep each one as long as possible, which is overall the least expensive way to own one.

 

Bet you anything 90% of this crowd would rather be in 4-wheeled cars.

 

Thus the Tata Nano was born. Of course, even a tiny car would greatly increase the area of that crowd.

 

Gut says desire for more personal space is a factor...

 

It’ll never happen in this country until forced upon us.
And there may be a revolution before that happens

 

Careful what you wish for

 

not a wish, just reality. you don't see many good things happen until a crisis occurs

 

Aptera like vw before it with the xl1 is likely going to be a low volume carbon fiber vehicle with much higher production ghg than something like a tesla model 3/Y or prius prime, and likely will drive a lot less distance over its lifetime, which means even if it really only uses 100 wh/mile (60% less than a tesla model 3) its lifecycle emissions per mile are going to end up much higher. I really doubt when it reaches production it will be as efficient as they claim, that 0.13 is difficult to pull off. The weight is a little higher than the Xl1, but having 3 wheels instead of 4 maybe rolling resistance is lower. The xl1's cd is 0.19 but its frontal area is less so drag should be about equal. vw did the xl1 as a science experiment, and only produced 250 copies and it had low acceleration. This aptera will likely be much higher volume but I doubt they will produce 10,000 in 2024 like they hope, let alone sell them. People will like the acceleration and the uniqueness, but I doubt they will drive it as a primary vehicle. Those wheel farrings look like they will get damaged so easily, so there is an off road package that raises the car, but that will have higher drag. I expect that off road means a little snow or potholes. It could be a unique vehicle for out of civilization, but to do that they would have to make it a lot more rugged, and probably at least have a steel chassis which would add weight (not very important on highway consumption) but might lower cost and definitely would lower repair costs.

I think they are using the tesla fast charging standard which by the time it comes out, will be 250 KW at all locations as they are rolling that out now. This can charge at 40 kw or 60 kw (not sure which battery they need for 60 kw) which means a model 3 will charge faster at a dc fast charger, still this charges fast enough. My model 3 dual motor can charge 200 miles in less than 20 minutes, topping it off from 85% to 100% takes much longer, but my guess it would in this car too.

I am not sure the 120 VAC charging rate is all that important, but 12 amps at 120 VAC (15 amp circuit breaker) can charge a tesla model 3 at 5 miles in an hour, but if its cold or hot and there is overhead this can drop to 3, and you can restrict it to lower amperage. My guess is the equivalant aptera is using this rate to be 15, but it can easily have overhead. Still even at 3 if you have 10 hours a day to charge then an average of 40 miles a day if you start at 200 miles and decide to hit a faster charger at 40 miles left will last 16 days. On an ampera it would likely never need to hit a faster charger.

I think this car is a cool experiment, and should show what happens when you push the envelope to be the most efficient. It will be interesting to see what people will get in the real world charging with solar and what the numbers end up being in production. The vw xl1 had stunning numbers but this had advantages of having great acceleration, a lower cost, and not having that diesel engine that xl1 used in hybrid mode to go beyond the 31 mile electric range.

lightyear actually produced some lightyear 0 cars last year. The manufacturing company they set up they have just sent to bankruptcy and canceled production. The R&D company has switched to lightyear2 - promised to be a 500 mile range in chicago with large solar panels at around $40K. They likely can get much higher volume if they can do that than the aptera, but I feel like it is a longshot. lightyear 0 definitely took a big hit on cold highway driving as will the aptera, but with 500 mile range and dc fast charging I don't think it is a problem. The bigger problem for both companies is actually building the vehicles with high quality at they promised price points.

2023 Lightyear 0 Solar Car First Look: The Sun Is Free, This Ain't

 

You're assuming that if someone doesn't have Level 2 charing available at their place of living (rental) that they'd have access to a DC quick charging station. The closest Tesla stations to me is over an hour away on the highway and over a mountain pass (there's one to the east and one to the west). The closest CHAdeMO and CCS/SAE station (one of each) is over 30 minutes away via a highway and is limited to 62kW on each.

I live in a college town with no DC quick charging and I don't know of a single appartment building with anything more than standard 120V outlets for each car out in the parking lot. There are two Level 2 6kW EVSE's at the local college, but the last time I was there there were two ICEV's parked in the spots and all the other spots anywhere near them were also taken with ICEV's and after a certain amount of time at them they charge up to $10 per session.

It's also completely unfair to compare a vehicle who's base model will possibly be around $26,000 to one whose base model is nearly double that, (Tesla Model 3: $43,990)

A more fair comparison would be with the Chevy Bolt ($26,500) and the Nissan Leaf ($28,040), both of which charge at around 55kW and 50kW respectively IIRC. There's also the 2023 Mini Hardtop Cooper SE at $34,225 with 50kW charging which is close to the starting price of the first Apteras.

 

No I was saying even with the smaller battery, this aptera won't charge as fast as a tesla model 3 on a DC quick charger. I was simply correcting the misinformation. I only have used L3 chargers on long trips. I know where they are in town, and there are many ( my college town that has grown too fast and now has a tesla factory as well as many other brands of plug-ins). On those long trips you will wait longer on the aptera, but they could put in hardware to charge much faster than a tesla.

That sucks. The roll out of L2 chargers if very different in different places. My municipal utility pushes them, and they are in parks, libraries, grocery stores, apartments, and many businesses. $25 for unlimited use for 6 months, with some spots like the one I had to park in at the hospital to visit charging for parking but not charging.

I compared the L3 charging to tesla because I believe aptera will be set to use those chargers but will take longer to charge. It will charge faster (in range added per minute) than a bolt or leaf because it is more expensive.

I don't really believe aptera will be able to sell a carbon fiber motorcycle for $26K and if they did in the US it would not qualify for the tax credit unlike the bolt and tesla model 3/Y. Ford has anounced it is following tesla's price cut and will cut the price of the mach e enough to qualify for the federal tax credit. That makes it hard for the aptera to compete on price, or foreign built plug-ins like the kia to compete. In December you got a tax credit for the kia but not a tesla or gm, now its reversed, and because the aptera is a motorcycle not a car it doesn't qualify for a credit.

 

Also, not that it matters much, but the more efficient the car is the bigger hit (in percentage) it takes when the weather is really cold or hot.
Aptera is a good science project, IMO since most people aren't going to buy that configuration of a car, even if it was much cheaper,

Mike

 

There are a couple more L2 charging stations, but not in very convenient places. One is by the Municipality building and two blocks from a supermarket and some restaurants. The other is about 4 or 5 miles out of town.

You may be right. We have no idea what the price will be until they try. We have no idea if they really are going to sell even one at this point. If I were single or married but had no kids I'd be interested in one. But still then, I might not go for it. I'm sure a lot of others would feel the same way.

The sad thing is that even though I'd like and EV to be my next purchase, I don't think I could make it work out off of just a standard 120V plug. Maybe, but it's sure cutting it short, unless it were a PHEV.

I, as well as many others, also would not get much of the tax credit back and sadly right now I don't see how a used car makes any sense anymore. I might get $1,000 is all. I got friends who are paying around $20,000 for used cars that end up being lemons. And I mean like "$6,000 for a new transmission 'cause yours blew up 3 months after you bought the car, thank you" kind of lemons. I might as well as buy a $30,000 car even if it's full price if anything happens to my current car.

Or worse yet, snow, slush, puddles of rain water, etc.

 

I would agree with you that all of the good used cars are gone, and the less good ones, and the somewhat sketchy ones, and the really-quite-iffy ones too.

But a quick search showed me that there are over a dozen sub-$25k new cars on lots near me. That tells me things are easing up a little.

That just means the economic tide is turning, won't be long before everyone is desperate to eat their cars.

 

I hope so. I know of countries though that have for decades been continously in what we we're experiencing here for the first time. The difference is a lot of those countries don't have as good of safety standards and so have very cheap new cars.

Still, i'm scared to buy something used again, period. One friend buys a 2009 Subaru for $27,000 and has been waiting for months for a part for it. Another gets a 2017 Ford Escape for over $17,000 and the transmission fails catastrophically before they even get the chance to drive out of town in it. I buy a Prius and the cylinders are all galled up and it needs an engine, California compliant catalytic converter, a wheel bearing and an HV battery.

When I had the 1972 VW I took the engine apart and for about $1,500 (in 2015) did a wonderful rebuild on the thing. New pistons, new cylinders, I honed the cylidners really smoothly, ground the crank and rebushed the rods. I had everything balanced, even the pulley wheel and the clutch plate. I even balanced each end of each connecting rod to the gram! For less than $5,000 I had a sweet ride! Man, that thing drove like a dream! But you buy a car today and you can't do this, and you can't do that, and you need a special subscription tool for that.

But I digress. I wanted a car that was better for the environment and that was safer, so I got a hybrid Avalon and a Prius as a project car. Now I have a Prius as a driveway ornament and an Avalon that has an infotainment center that doesn't work even after being fixed by the dealer.

If I buy another used car again it better be a good deal, or I won't buy it. I want proof every last oil change was done at the shorter interaval, not the yearly. Full independent mechanical inspection. Must have extremely high ratings on Consumer Reports. No more than 50,000 miles nor 5 years on it. And I want it to be no more than 1/4 the MSRP in case it blows a transmission the next week. Otherwise I will walk if I can't afford a new car. Or speaking of motorcycles, I will buy a motorcycle like the Honda PCX and put a side car on it before buying a used car.

 

I don’t think you’re likely to find a highly rated and reliable 5 year old car with 50k miles or less that’s 1/4 of initial price. When I bought my car, which had regular maintenance done and high ratings from everywhere I could find, it was around 8 years old, had 105,000 miles on it, and cost about 1/3 of initial MSRP. It has had some expensive repairs in the 6 years I’ve owned it, but the most expensive was when my catalytic converter was stolen, and car insurance paid that. No problems with engine, battery, inverter, or transmission. All in, it’s been a good car. But I can’t imagine that I would have been able to get a more recent one with half the miles for less money.

 

In 2024 the credit no longer is based on your taxes, which is a good thing, but ... it goes to the dealer or in tesla's case the manufacturer. My guess is many dealers will just keep most of it if demand remains high.

The used car market sucks, and that has pushed up prices in the new car market with dealers adding big mark ups and manufacturers loading cars with options people didn't want but had to pay for. There are signs that in a year it may return to normal as new cars get more plentiful as supply chains get worked out. My gf unfortunately needed a car, it was a really tough time to shop. I hope your current car lasts until then. Only way used gets as cheap as you want them though is if the car was a lemon or the car was in accidents. Still used may be the way to go if prices go back to where they were in 2019

 

Maybe that's a bit of an exageration on my part. But the point being that buying a used car is buying something you have no real idea of how it's been treated or maintained and now it has no warranty. So since it could be a lemon it doesn't make sense to pay close to new car prices for such a vehicle. 1/3 might be ok.

That's what I paid for the Avalon, about 1/3 it's original MSRP and it was 5 years old and had almost exactly 50,000 miles on it at the time.

From what I read the credit will still be worked out on your taxes at the end of the year in 2024 and beyond and will still be "non-refundable." Yes, you will be able to ask to get part or all of that $7,500 credited to the downpayment, but once you work out your taxes at the end of the year if you didn't own it you'll have to pay it back kind of like people who have too much health insurance tax credits applied to their premiums.

Credits for New Clean Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After | Internal Revenue Service

We're not in 2024 yet, but I'd imagine there will be a form that you have to fill out to figure out how much tax credit the IRS can give the dealership/manufacturer in your particular case based of the prior year's taxes. If you didn't owe much tax the prior year then the IRS probably won't give the full $7,500 to the dealership for you. You'll still have to work it out on your taxes at the end of the year you purchased the car, regardless of whether you had some or all of that potential tax credit applied to your downpayment or not.