Anticipated price for 2012 PHV prius?

Poll: 73% of Americans believe that reducing dependency on fossil fuels is important — Autoblog Green

whether the rant is oil, pollution, energy (in)depencence, terrorism, or some other rant ... it'd seem that the ranters are not alone.

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Yep, polls are one thing but it's a damned shame that not enough Americans take it upon themselves to DO something significant to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels WITHOUT the government doing a thing. American can choose to buy more efficient cars and dump monstrosity class, guzzling, battering ram of death full-sized SUVs, but noooo... when gas prices are "low" they flock right back to them.

I discovered some dismaying (but not surprising) sales stats that I posted at http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-h...ales-recover-bit-14-102-july.html#post1160760.

I haven't had the time to read this whole thread, but even I think that there might not be a great/any "payback period" for a PHEV Prius, whenever we learn of the price. But, this question has come up before for hybrids in general.

Some will ask, why there needs to be a payback period. What's the premium on a BMW, a sunroof or a V8 engine? How much money do they "save"? What's the payback period on those?

How about looking at features that recapture energy that would otherwise be wasted as brake dust and heat and repurposing it? How about emitting fewer pollutants and fewer greenhouse gases? What about being less dependent on a non-renewable resource, of which we import ~60% and of which the US has only ~3% of the world's reserves? We send ~$6 billion/week abroad to pay for foreign oil at current oil prices and consumption rates.

In the case of PHEVs, how about at least guaranteeing a percentage comes from a domestic source, some of which is renewable, w/the possibility of that increasing?

How about paying for the technology itself?

 

I'm guessing here cwerdna that it's a case of somebody else should get a smaller car, but I need my 6 litre v8 monstrosity that seats 8 because.....

There are many fuel efficient cars in the US (not just hybrids), and many more could be sold if the public wanted them. You all know about the super efficient, performance diesels that BMW sell here in Europe, but they choose not to sell most of them in the US.

The BMW 1 series diesel is a huge success here in the UK - it's a 1.8 diesel engine, 0-60 in 8.6 seconds (8.7 seconds auto), 140bhp and capable of 62 uk mpg (52 uk mpg auto). Similar figures to the Prius, yet it's not sold in the US - only the bigger 3.0 litre engine on the 3 series. Missed opportunity.

 

Yep... because American solo drivers "need" a monstrosity class SUV (curb weight of 5000+ lbs.) to haul "heavy" groceries and to carry only themselves or a small child or two.

If only more would buy more efficient vehicles more inline w/actual needs...

If our gas prices became like those the UK, Americans would both scream bloody murder and change their driving and car buying habits in a hurry.

 

$8K more for the PHV Prius is insane. You will never make up the $$.
The Chevy Volt is over priced and now if the $8K is correct the PHV Prius is also overpriced. The PHV Prius only gets 72 MPG. If it was priced $2 - $3 more, that would be worth it.

 

Well, 118d is a 2.0 litre engine, and those figures stated are not very easy to reach on practical terms. Only highway, perhaps. And there is also the mpg units messing up things: Diesel and Petrol are different fuels, the first 11% contains more energy per litre burned - regarding carbon footprint, the same mpg coming from Petrol gives a same amount in emission savings.

Missed opportunity is one way of putting things, but we must take in account that Diesel fuel in US is not so "premium" as sold in Europe [later diesels are very susceptible], and usually petrol gives quieter travel, in US with not much higher prices.

Sorry for the offtopic.

 

There is not a MPG figure for PHV car actually, i believe anyone car reach 100+MPG with a PHV Prius, as long as driving 15miles between charges.
A PHV will be more suitable to anyone that can charge many times, and ICE coming in not so often. That's the purpose of the Volt MkI, which holds a 1.4 engine with an inefficient output, just for the charge sustain mode.

 

i think we all want to see every kind of energy efficiency grow. but it won't happen overnight. you can't sell products for less than they cost forever. i think toyota did a great job setting the pace when no one else believed. now, the market will adjust and grow based on many different factors, gas price and availabilty, technology, competition, what a great to to be alive and watch it all happening!

 

I do calculations like this for a living...bridging the gap between technical and economic improvements. Let's see what this one looks like...very roughly.

Assume the plug-in addon costs the buyer $5k over whatever the base car is, and after tax credits...net $5k cash, bottom line.

Assume the battery will last 10 years, with the practical life of the car.

Say, our return rate requirement is 8%. That's reasonable for a car lease/loan or someone's alternate use of the cash.

So, to pay out $5000 over 10 years at 8% means that we need to benefit $717 per year in order to break even.

We're talking about providing an alternate supply source of energy, so let's do the analysis in shaft-kWh (1 kWh at the PSD ring gear).

The cost of electrical power is about $0.08 for 1 kWh from the plug.

Making a shaft-kWh with the ICE requires about (on average, say) 240 g of fuel (based on the BSFC maps). $2.60/ gallon is equivalent to $0.22 for 240g.

I'll be generous and assume only 11% loss from the plug, through the converter/charger, battery, inverter, and motor. So, 1 shaft-kWh from the plug/battery/motor costs $0.09.

The difference is 22-9=13. This confirms what we know, that buying energy as electricity is $0.13/kWh cheaper than buying it as gasoline to be converted, even with a very efficient engine.

Since we need to realize $717/year in savings, the battery needs to provide 5530 kWh per year.

Let's say we can only recharge once per day, and that we're very good candidates for a plug-in. We drive the car 6x per week on average, and can fully drain the (plug-in) battery once per day to exploit it.

52*6=312 discharges. and 5530/312=17.7 kWh.

So, the $5000 battery system would need to have a usable capacity of 17.7 kWh to be a reasonable investment. That means the battery would need a "rated" capacity of probably 20 kWh.

Even at no investment return, it would need 12.4 kWh.

So, a 10 kWh (half) kit (e.g., hymotion) at $10,000 (double). is about 4x too expensive to make any sense.

Of course, if we can recharge twice per day, that cuts the requirement in half. The hymotion is still 2x too expensive.

If the plug-in has a rated capacity of ~10 kWh (~9 usable) and adds $5000, and we can use all 9 kWh twice per day, then the system will justify itself in 10 years @ 8%.

Even better would be to get 2 charges per day, with one of them free (if you have a nice employer). Now the usable capacity requirement drops to 6.6 kWh...maybe ~8 kWh rated.

So, if:
1. return rate is 8%
2. you drive 6 times per week, every week, and long enough one-way to drain the battery
3. you can charge at home for $0.08/kWh, and at work for free
4. the system adds $5000 after taxes and subsidies
5. the battery can deliver 6.6 kWh
6. the system will last 10 years with no maintenance costs
and
7. gasoline is $2.60/gallon

the proposition would be what we call economic breakeven.

50 MPG (at 240 g/kWh) is about 4.25 mi per kWh, so your one-way drive would have to be about 28 miles. This is a fairly typical commute, so that's practical too. 17.7 kWh would reqiure a 75 total miles. That's alot more for most people.

The take-home here is that the economic viability and practicality have less to do with batteries (8 kWh would fit in the Prius easily), nor mode of operation, and everything to do with remote-recharging availability and price.

 

Even though I personally am more than willing to pony up at least $5k more for a plug-in just because it is so damn geeky-cool, I want to thank you for this very practical and quite useful breakdown! Best I've ever seen. I don't know if it is appropriate to ask, but I'd also love it if you could run the numbers on a Nissan Leaf using whatever comps you think appropriate. Regardless, thanks again for this.

 

CIT,
Nice breakdown, although I wish I could find an after-tax 8% return rate
The only minor quibble I have with your method is ignoring gains from investing the fuel savings. As for the car calcs, I suspect your use of 240 grams petrol/kwh is optimistic for the majority of drivers.

All in all I like your post, and it confirms my back of the envelope calcs that break-even by the end life of the car is about the best we can hope for in the near future. Your comment that charging stations away from home will make PHEV much more attractive is spot on. Buying half the battery capacity is a *big* savings.

 

Wards Auto report 85 MPG (1.7 times 50 MPG) from PHV Prius. In the same report it is stated that Toyota will be putting the real-time MPGs of 150 PHV Priuses on the website (probably ESQ site). That leads me to believe that on average combined all types of trips, PHV Prius should return 85 MPG.

 

I wish I could beat 8% too. I wanted to use something, and I figured the average owner would get the 5g's via a car loan, and 8% would be a reasonable non-subsidized car loan rate.

The 240 g/kWh is probably a little generous. The minimum is about 220, and the 230-240 island is pretty big. I gave the HSD alot of credit to keep it in there somewhere on average. Again, pick a number, 250? Doesn't really change the conclusion too much.

 

I read somewhere that a SAE J1711 standard is almost ready for balancing these MPG for PHEV in the near future.
It includes full operation in all-modes, and does not combine fuel and electricity, giving MPG and Wh/mi (from plug) separately.
So this kind of different approaches may have a solution after all...
Sorry i do not have a link...

 

Here is the SAE approved procedure to test PHEVs.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehicle...icles_and_systems_simulation/vss_05_duoba.pdf

 

If you have a 100 mile commute, then the Prius Plugin is not for you, period. Stick with the regular Prius and you'll be very happy.

The ICE will never charge the additional batteries of the Plugin system, the engineers at Toyota are not that stupid!

Finally, about sitting in traffic, this will always be much worse with ICE-only powered vehicles than with a hybrid or electric one!

 

The last few posts I suggest you read Tony Schaeffer's Dr Rangelove article on his week with the PHV it helps answer many of the usage questions. Also one key point in the article is he pretty much got 14mpg on each use of the EV portion of the car. You can find it at the Prius Chat home or buried in the threads.