Anticipated price for 2012 PHV prius?

"disingenuous" about what? That I believe price is a major factor in any car buying experience - for most people?

I'm in marketing, and point of fact - price is king.

Let me ask you a simple question - Do you think Toyota would have more than 100,000 sales of Prii (in the US) each year, if it was priced, say the same as the Corolla at $15.5K? Roughly a $5-6K difference.

You bet your sweet arse they would.

I mean Toyota has been selling it's Prius hybrid in this country for over 10 years now, and STILL only ~ 100K/year in sales? If you don't think price matters to many poeple, then why did Prius sales spike when gas prices started to go through the roof? Because people began to weigh the economic benefits/tradeoffs of paying more for a car, but paying less in transportation costs. Cost-benefit analysis.

Now, that's not to say there is a certain segment of the buying public that would pay almost any amount to buy a certain product. BMW has been relying on that fact for years...although Audi is now chipping away at their position. But there are many sales/marketing studies that show sales volume is directly related to price - almost no matter what the product is. In some case, the relationship to price is non-linear. In some ways, it's like selling a house...put it on the market for $400K and no buyers or even lookers. Drop the price by $50K and whamo, that day you have multiple offers.

Hey, if Toyota only cares about a low volume of sales of it's PHV Prius in 2012, then price it at whatever they want...but don't expect the market share for Toyota's products to grow now that there is a host of other players entering the market. I guarentee you if it comes in at around $29-30K, for a base PHV, they won't sell more than 20,000 units, if that. I'd bet the house on that.

 

I'll say this one more time - we're done.

Your rant about oil, war and terrorism - on the prior page - was absolutely priceless. Gotta print this out for my co-workers tomorrow, who warned me that some of your were arrogant/smug....maybe even a bit nuts.

Not gonna waste my time discussing with someone as clearly emotionally vested in the PHV, as you appear to be. It's a waste of my time, so we're done....enjoy the rest of your day.

 

Sure I am...ie, talking about price as it relates to "perceived value". Payback is all part of the "perceived value". If something is perceived to be better (eg, gas mileage of the PHV vs the non-PHV), then the next question to ask is - how much more do i have to pay to get this benefit?

Your analogy is flawed. I think most people, when presented with two nearly identical vehicles (ie PHV Prius and non-PHV Prius), except for gas mileage, will ask the following question:

"How much more do I have to pay to get 25mpg more?"

The next question I would ask is....how much more will my electric bills (at home) go up, and then, what is the true (total) energy/transportation cost of both vehicles.

By the way - you completely ignored my question about the Corolla? Disingenuous?

As I said before - Some people will buy the PHV, or an all electric vehicle no matter what the cost. For this segment, cost is not the driving factor. For this segment, it's all about being a pioneer, trend setter and being out in front with the lattest technology.

But make no mistake, this segement is tiny. You're NOT going to save the environment, or reduce our dependence on foreign oil (if that's your agenda) by pricing high, and only selling, say, 20K units. It's a drop in the bucket. There's only two things that will help sales volume - (1) Cost competitive (to similar other hybrid, or non-hybrid vehicles) and/ or (2) high gas prices...I mean like $5/gallon.

 

What's the objective here? Well, that depends on your perspective.

IMO (as I stated many posts ago) - Toyota would be foolish to price the PHV too close to it's nearest (internal) competitor, the non-PHV prius. This is why I expect (at least) a $5K differential, and possibly much higher than this. So the question Toyota is asking themselves...how many people are willing to pay an additional $5K-$10K to get an additional 25mpg more? That's it. Maybe not even that.

I was just over at our local Toyota dealership this weekend. they had 30 Prii on the lot. They had exactly two of the model V @31K. They had 4 of the Model IV @29K...of the remaining 24 on the lot, not one of these was more than $24K. Why do you think such a skewed distribution? Because most people buy based on price.

Except for the few trend setters, techies, environmentalists and others where money is no object...the vast majority of the car buying public will choose between the Prius and the PHV Prius based on the price differential. For this large segement, price is still king. If it were not, Toyota would sell a lot more than 100K Prii/year in the US.

Doing the math, I could very well see this happening when Toyota introduces the PHV Prius in 2012: 80,000 Prius are sold and 20,000 PHV Prius are sold in 2012. Does Toyota make more profit with this outcome? Still total volume of 100K Prii sold. Did Toyota bring in any significant new buyers, or did they just siffon away buyers that might have bought the regular Prius? Have they improved their market share/position? No, and no, IMO.

 

Comparing base models in each. If the base PHV Prius comes out at $29K (for example), and then fully loaded, you might be looking at a car that's pushing into the high 30's. Sorry, they won't sell many of these. I promise you that.

Doing the math, I could very well see this happening when Toyota introduces the PHV Prius in 2012: 80,000 Prius are sold and 20,000 PHV Prius are sold in 2012. Does Toyota make more profit with this outcome? Still total volume of 100K Prii sold. Did Toyota bring in any significant new buyers, or did they just siffon away buyers that might have bought the regular Prius? Have they improved their market share/position? No, and no, IMO.

If Toyota is comfortable in keeping the total Prius (and PHV Prius) volume at the niche level, or in the low 100's, then they can pretty much price it where ever they want. However, if they wish to grow this segement...and especially now that there's new competition, they will have to very aggressively price both versions of the Prius.

Fact - you will not grow the hybrid segment if your price point is in the high 20's to low 30's. That just won't happen until gas climbs to $5 or $6/gallon...

 

You still here?

Really, go back to spewing about terrorism, oil and the war...you really know nothing about this subject. Sorry to sound "arrogant" (just taking a page out of your book), but it's the truth.

I could cite survey after survey, study after study about why it's now fashionable to buy American again, but i'll simply link you to this article:

Poll: Americans again prefer U.S.-made cars - Business - Autos - msnbc.com

"Watching an iconic American industry beaten down amid the Great Recession may be one reason Americans are giving U.S. automakers a closer look.

"I think Americans are beginning to realize the significance of America's auto industry to its history and to its future, and we're a bit more sensitive now to what will be its fate," said John Heitmann, an auto historian at the University of Dayton.

"Keep the wages in the American hand, supplying jobs for Americans. Why not keep the cash flow where we are and benefit for ourselves?" Sullivan said. "And I think also that Ford, for myself, builds a really good car."


Certainly amongst many older buyers and many average/blue clollar buyers, there's one thing that transcends the price tag - patriotism.

It's called "Buy American". But given your prior rants about the war, etc...I really don't expect you to get it.

 

Who's "woory" about Toyota? Not me.

Although i would like to see this segment grow, and have more Americans embrace hybrid/electric vehicles. That's where I am coming from...and in order to do that, companies like Toyota need to bring in more NEW buyers. Not simply keep it at the niche level, by re-distributing the ones that already believe in the hybrid revolution.

People will base their purchases based on their own individual needs and priorities. What I've been saying is - For the vast majority, price is critical. I've given you several examples to make that point.

If they come in at the high 20's to low 30's for a base PHV, then IMO, they will NOT grow this segment...and that would be a shame...for multiple reasons, none of which having to do with Toyota.