Featured Anti-Plugin War is Heating up Fast

what do columns 2, 3 and 4 represent?

 

Looks like Toyota is going to have a Fuel Cell-athon soon.

 

The Dashboard diesel numbers ignore the trucks over the 1500 size class. Those are the non-commercial diesels people see most.

The article is only a snapshot of plug in sales during the first 9 to 12 months that they were on the market. For your point to hold up, you need to show that these trade in rates have kept up, and the hybrid and HOV people aren't already satisfied.The early adopting Prius owners could have all been satisfied, and hybrid trade in rates dropped off a cliff since Oct 2011.

Or to ask the question, why aren't GM and Nissan crowing about all the Prii traded in for the Volt and Leaf now?

 

why do you keep mentioning prius, there are plenty of hybrids on the road.

my point is my opinion, based on the overall growth rate of the ev market segment. we are not seeing enough gassers switching to affect the 97/3 ratio.

 

The Prius is the only model that we have seen actual numbers on being traded in for some type of plug in model, and at the time of that article, it made up a half of all new hybrid sales. Even now, with lower sales and more hybrid choices, it still makes up a quarter to a third of them.

Hybrid drivers switching to plug ins are likely switching from a Prius. It's our keystone species for tracking hybrid owners switching to plug ins.

When I gave a contradictory response to your opinion, you claimed there was no evidence. Where is your evidence?

From 2011 to 2013, hybrids had their biggest sales growth in the US. Plug ins sales were also growing at this time. Where did the buyers for these increased sales come from?

Past 2013, hybrid sales started to drop, and plug ins kept climbing. Hybrid people could be switching, but we've seen hybrid sales slump before plug ins came to market in response to dropping fuel prices. Back then, the hybrid people switched back to gassers. With low fuel prices now, people are switching from cars to the generally less efficiency crossovers and SUVs.

But plug in sales continued to climb during this time. If there were enough gasser people switching tp support growth in the hybrid and plug in segments at the same time, why would the plug in sales now just be from hybrid people switching?

Hybrids are only seen as a way of saving fuel. They cost more than the gasser version, so people only consider them during high fuel prices. That's why they haven't broken the 3% mark. If the only thing seen about plug ins was saving fuel, their sales would slump with the hybrid's. They haven't, so they have better shot of breaking that 3%.

 

i agree, but not in the near future. the numbers are minuscule, and will take synergy of a number of causal factors, including gas prices. that's why i'm on the 10 year plan.

 

Maybe outsells the Leaf in the U.S.. But in the big picture, the Leaf is still #1 worldwide. Renault-Nissan is king by a wide margin.

World's Top 10 Selling Plug-In Cars Lead By The Nissan LEAF So Far This Year[/QUOTE]

 

That is not the case.
Yes, the Leaf topped the charts for Jan-Feb. Nissan, however, did not. BMW is the leading manufacturer, Nissan barely holding #2 and will most likely drop to 3rd next month.

 

Incorrect. The data and statement are absolutely correct as stated. Straw man is not constructive. Again, it said Renault-Nissan. Please don't manipulate that.

 

My apologies, I forgot about the strategic partnership between those two companies.
And since the page you linked listed them as separate manufacturers, I called foul when I shouldn't have.

So, if BMW and Tesla form a strategic partnership, they would instantly become the new "king" as you put it?

 

What other countries is the Gen II Volt sold in, besides Canada?

 

I am confused. The Leaf, Tesla S and X, etc. are BEVs. How does this comparison with the Prime and Volt work? Additionally, the Prime has a very restricted distribution right now, which has to have a negative effect on sales.

 

Sure. There could be arguments to count Renault-Nissan separately or as an alliance. I favor the alliance argument since Renault-Nissan cross develop vehicles and for the next Nissan Leaf and Zoe there will be much more of this. Many (including the leadership from the individual companies in the alliance) count them as the same entity in this regard:



Renault-Nissan Alliance Extends Electric Vehicle Sales Record | CleanTechnica


If BMW and Tesla formed a similar development partnership, the same reasoning should apply to them.

I am personally agnostic to whoever the "king" is. A healthy rivalry is a good for nearly everyone. If Nissan-Renault is dethrowned, congratulations to the new champ.

 

"Plugin Vehicles" is simply a category including vehicles that get any of their fueling from electricity generated outside the vehicle.
BEV is another category, that includes vehicles that use electricity as their only source of fuel which is stored in batteries.
Yes you really can't make a comparison of a $140,000 Model X and a Mitsubishi iMiev work all that well either.

Likewise, you can put a Prius in a category with other hybrids, or other hatchbacks, or cars that cost under $30,000, or are members of the Light Vehicle Fleet.
Each is a category of its own and each is just as valid as others, as long as the context supports it.

 

I agree completely, competition is a good thing.
I must admit though, I always enjoy seeing a company do well after being dismissed out of hand by other companies.

That said, looks like Tesla may not need an alliance to beat the Nissan-Renault combo. If those two sold at the same pace as January&February, Tesla surpassed their combined total for the full first quarter.
Tesla Beats Estimate With 25,000 Deliveries as Model 3 Nears

 

I think king of the hill is not an important game. I would like to correct the numbers though
Tesla Outperforms Expectations, Delivers 25,000 Model S and Model X EVs In Q1

Tesla only reports quarterly. I believe that blog simply greatly underestimated the january-feb Tesla sales. Model S was probably around 8000, model x around 7000.

 

Well, it is pure speculation, but I think the competition helps the entire industry.
If Toyota had meaningful competition to the Prius in the early years, I believe the entire hybrid market would be further advanced than it is now.

Tesla has a track record of building for overseas the first part of the quarter. Shipping overseas, reassembling cars, and delivering them can take 6-8 weeks.
Tesla also only counts a sales when a car is delivered, although they also report production.
Combined, these factors lead to a lower number the first part of each quarter, with a surge at the end of the quarter.

In short, I'm not convinced the website underestimated deliveries in the first two months, as much as it is simply an artifact of logistics.

 

What you say is absolutely true, that is why I had the first 2 months lower. January actually started with many cars in transit as did april. From my above link
Tesla Outperforms Expectations, Delivers 25,000 Model S and Model X EVs In Q1

inside ev had 6200 cars delivered in US in march + those in transit that is 10,650. How many cars do you think got produced? I added 4200 foreign deliveries for march. We can quibble but january/feb should not be far off from my guestimates. Remember I have the advantage of tesla reporting, which the estimator did not, and tesla delivered more cars than expected. That would be an average of 7500 in january/feburary, with 10,400 in march and production of 4650 vehicles in transit. Remember they ship more to the US at the end of the quarter to boost the value and some of those in transit in march were domestic sales. Modify my 4200 guestimate of foreign deliveries for march and estimate accordingly.

Big question for tesla is model 3. As tesla reported they took a full weeks production in febuary working on the lines to figure out how to make the model 3. If it ships in quantity by end of the year, tesla will have major production in q4, I only expect some small number of cars though. 2018 should provide rapid growth at tesla.

I think early years didn't make a difference in the hybrid market. electronics had to improve, and that came from outside automotive. Definitely by 2003 though when the prius was a hit, more competion would have helped as toyota did not seem to be able to keep up with demand for the gen II in 2006+.

Don't read the wrong things from the numbers. Tesla is indeed king of the heap, but there are a lot of segments for plug-ins. I expect the leaf segment to fade away, but there is lots of room for cars like the prime, and phev SUVs and trucks.

I believe tesla will simply play with pricing in Q2 to exceed its estimates, but I don't think they need to reduce prices much. China is also finally contributing well. The problems come in Q3 and Q4 if the model 3 is not ready. Then maybe tesla grows 25% instead of the 50% we are used to. Many of us don't really need free supercharging but want a less expensive model 3 ;-)

From the above link