Featured Anti-Plugin War is Heating up Fast

or maybe they weren't all trade ins. i think you're missing my point. people are still trading in hybrids for plug ins, we've seen it with the prime. how many? i have no idea.

i haven't seen any evidence to contradict my original statement, but i'm open to any data available. the future is difficult to predict.

 

Do a requirements analysis, they'll buy the car that meets there needs. For example in our case in 2016:

• 2003 Prius -> 2014 BMW i3-REx
• 2010 Prius -> 2017 Prius Prime Plus

In spite of the Chevy Volt, the nonexistent Hyundai Ioniq, the Ford products, the Nissan products, e.t.c., One primary requirement, the car must exist on the market place. A second, mandatory requirement, it must have a TSS-P equivalent. Everything afterwards are price-performance driven.

Bob Wilson

 

I moved from a Prius to a PIP and my next car will likely either be a plugin or full electric. Once you experience 50mpg the only option is to go plugin or full electric. I can imagine purchasing another vehicle that doesn't get equivalent mileage unless it's a pure sports car. Considering the performance of Tesla that sports car might be electric also.

 

The current Gen 4 hybrid gets over 50 mpg. I frequently get over 60. I remember one in town trip that was 84 mpg in my 2017 Trim Two.

 

Your post bringing up hybrid owners switching to plug ins gave the impression that you believed that was a major source for plug in sales, and when those hybrid owners stopped switching, sales would have a big slow down.

When I contended that hybrid switching wasn't a big source, and note, I never said it didn't happen, for plug in sales, you wanted evidence of this. Yet hide your claim behind 'opinion'.

When looking at individual models, I believe sales of PHEVs that have a hybrid sibling will have more buyers that had the hybrid. For stand alone plug in models, that isn't going to be the case.

Tesla has attracted previous hybrid owners, but the price tag excludes much of the hybrid owner base. The Model S outsells the Leaf and also ICE competitors in its price segment. Some of those competitors have lost sales since the Model S has arrived. How would hybrid owners switching explain its sales growth?

 

i do believe it's a major source. how major, i don't know. everything i have asserted is opinion. i don't have any more data than you do.

also, i'm not counting on model s to make a major contribution the the gas/ev statistics. model 3 will bring a small change, maybe noticeable, maybe not.

 

If by "I don't have any more data than you do" you mean " I see you have some more data than I do" I agree with you

 

i must have missed your data.

 

Selective reading?

As already noted, we have a number of polls.
Granted, these aren't scientific, but they do provide more data than an individual's opinion based on their own experience.
In addition, articles that looked at the number of hybrid owners moving to plugins were posted.
These were from after just the first few years. However, I don't see any reason that previous hybrid owners would become an ever higher percentage over time.

The basic logic above, showing that large luxury car buyers have been leaving their Mercedes, BMWs, etc in favor of Tesla also indicate an appeal of BEVs beyond just hybrid buyers.

 

okay, if you say so. i'll watch the sales numbers.

 

ya, those will probably sell like hotcakes.

 

Trying to prove to the Tesla driving board members that he isn't asleep.

Bob Wilson

 

There were links, but here is the best source on Prii traded in for a plug in.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/10/the-halo-effect-of-electric-vehicles.html

It was 7% for the Volt and 18% for the Leaf. That did make the Prius the number one traded in model for each, but the majority of models traded in were a non-Prius. I'm sure some of those non-Prius were some other hybrid. Another 20% of trade ins for the Leaf were Toyotas. I guess those could all have been Camry and Highlander hybrids. The only other models mentioned in the article were the BMW 3 series, A4, and Jetta; making up 6% for the Volt.

So the non-Prius trade ins were 88% for the Leaf and 93% for the Volt, with 6% there known to be ICE only. I'm sure there were other hybrids traded in. For Oct 2011 when the article was written, there were much fewer non-Prius hybrids out on the streets to be traded in. The Prius is still the most numerous hybrid out there today.

For the hybrids traded in for the Volt to be over half, the Escape, Fusion, Camry, Highlander, Civic, and Insight would have needed to be traded in at the nearly the same rate as the Prius. I can allow for the researchers not being able to pull out separate numbers in the case of of models with a hybrid and ICE available, but that wouldn't explain the lack of mention on any Insights traded in.

It not getting mentioned means the number wasn't enough to be worth mentioning. Same in the case of models with hybrid and ICE available. For enough Camry hybrids to be of impact, the total Camry number would have been newsworthy.

If we allow for other hybrids traded in to be double, that still allows for over 60% of models traded in for the Leaf being a non-hybrid, and over 85% for the Volt.

 

yes, these articles are all pretty much making my points. once the hybrid drivers and hov sticker people are satisfied, the growth rate will slow until gas prices go way up. i expect around 10 hers before we see significant changes in gasser/ev %.

 

Perhaps we would understand your position better if you qualified "significant"?
Are hybrids a "significant" fraction of all sales?

 

they are not bad, but all ev's have been stuck around 3% for awhile. i'll be happy with 1% growth per year of the whole ev market vs gassers. that's 97 years to go completely non gasser. maybe we'll even be done with hybrids by then too.

 

By one percent, you mean taking over 1% of the market each year, not 1% growth?
Plugin vehicles have grown much more than 1% a year.

1% is about 170,000 vehicles per year. That is an awful lot of growth, but plugins should reach that level of growth in 2018 or 2019.
Will they sustain an additional 1% added marketshare per year? Tough to say, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

The horseless carriage was slow to start as well. It took Ford to really make automobiles common.

 

yes, market share. that's why i'm in the 10 year camp.

 

Source: February 2017 Dashboard

	Vehicle Type	2017 Year to Date	2017 over 2016	Total Rate to Market
1	Overall Hybrid Take Rate	2.14%	2.07%	1.82%
2	Overall Diesel Take Rate	0.49%	0.48%	0.76%
3	Overall BEV Take Rate	0.44%	0.46%	0.33%
4	Overall PHEV Rate	0.47%	0.48%	0.28%
5	Overall Fuel Cell Take Rate	0.01%	0.01%	0.00%
6	Overal Ioniq Take Rate (*)	0.0000001%	0.0000001%	0.0000001%

* - Estimated based upon a single Ioniq sold in February

Off hand: 2:1 ratio of hybrids over diesels; 6:1 ratio of hybrids to BEVs; 6:1 ratio of hybrids over PHEVs and; everything else is in the noise.

For what it is worth, we have PHEVs, two, in our family. We had great years, a decade, and nearly 200,000 hybrid miles with no regrets. Had TSS-P been in the 2016 Level Two ECO, we'd still have one.

Bob Wilson