4th generation coming 2015!

I drive about 30 miles a day, with the occasional lunch run or vampire losses or heating call it 35 miles. If my car really has a 80 mile range I could easily charge every 2nd day. I'd call that a wash, I don't have to deal with the smell of gas, I get a quiet ride with no engine noise at the drive through, but I do have to plug/unplug more often than I would pump gas. Good news is I don't have to stand around and wait for it to charge, I can walk in the house and leave the charging process unattended.

If my car is a Tesla Model S 60kw I can get 200+ miles before charging so even with lower efficiency per mile and more vampire loss I could go 5 days before recharging at home. Just to be on a habit and leave more buffer I could charge twice a week (every 3 or 4 days) and it'd still be more convenient than going to buy gas. It has a faster charge rate than the leaf and is a much nicer car. I'd call this a clear win vs going to the gas station.

Model S 85kw would be even nicer, I could charge once a week or at worst once every 5 days to leave a comfortable buffer.

edit: yeah if I had a current PiP I'd be charging at home and work to be able to make it about 80-90% electric miles so I could see the PiP being less convenient than gas only for my use.

You must have a long commute if you drive an electric car and consider plugging in on a regular basis to be less convenient than buying gasoline. (well if your only plugin is the PiP its short EV range compared to BEVs would make your commute seem long)

Oh and as to long trips I'm plenty happy enough with the recharge rates of a 105kw supercharger (model S60 with newer battery) or even 90kw (model S85 with older battery). Either way I could travel around the US with reasonable charge times.

Range limit and recharge time are both considerations but neither are objectionable in my use habits.

Now imagine how happy my wife would be with a Pip/Leaf/Tesla considering we live 2 miles from her work. She would use more battery power on AC/HEAT/vampire losses than she would covering the motive force to move the miles.

 

Toyota, as I understand it, has been developing and moving ahead for years on this exciting technology. Costs have to be drivened down, cold start issues addressed, and distribution systems setup. Hydrogen is good for the environment, water vapor only emitted, get the driver weaned off of gasoline.

I look forward to this unlimited supply of energy for vehicle propulsion.

DBCassidy

 

You seem to have a better grasp on the chemistry than I do. Please explain to me how it works.

 

I will never, if at all possible, return to the inconvenience of fueling up while I am out and about.
I find it far more convenient to plug in when I get home and unplug when I leave.

Doesn't matter if it is gas, or hydrogen, I have been spoiled by the convenience of fueling at home

 

Their fuel cell approach doesn't make any more sense to me than Tesla's approach. A fuel cell is an inherently power-limited device. A battery is an inherently energy limited device. Neither makes any sense on its own in an application where the peak to average power ratio is as high as it is in a car (5-20). It makes more sense to me to have a plugin hybrid with around 40 miles or so of battery only range combined with a roughly 20kw fuel cell. That gets you a battery 1/5th as big as Tesla's and a fuel cell 1/5th as big as Toyota's, while giving you full power on a battery you charge at home and a 300 mile range with a 3-5 minute fill up on long trips, all for around 40% of the cost of either system on its own.

 

The problem is that hydrogen will escape from your fuel tank while you are driving only short EV trips.

 

Interesting speculation, and if you are correct I might agree with you.
However, I believe such a creature can be built. I also believe if such a car could be built at 40% of the cost of either, it would already be on the drawing board.

 

It's nice with the FCV and exciting. However, we regular Priusowners long for more practical things like lower fuel consumption, longer EV range(?HV), better cold weather abilities, luggage space, etc. The Prius is lagging behind and sales are dropping for the Prius. Another year for the next gen Prius seems to be a bad move from Toyota if they choose to put to much effort in the FCV instead of the Prius.

 

Good for you, enjoy.

DBCassidy

 

Can you explain why?

I think it may have short trip penalty since FC stack needs to warm up. That's a good reason to have 12 EV plugin miles for frequeny short trips, like PiP, before H2 is used for longer trip. As for Gen1 model, due to cost reasons, I doubt it will be a plugin.

However, I am not aware of H2 leak due to short trips. H2 tank is bulletproof so hydrogen should not leak when not used (parked).

Model S has vampire loss of 5-10 miles in 24 hours. It will be much lower for FCV.

Pumping H2 into 10k psi bulletproof tank costs 2% of the energy. Charging loss for the battery is 12-15%.

FCV is a superior electric vehicle than BEV in many ways. Cost was the biggest barrier for FCV but it has come down to 1/10th in the last 5 years. They also project another 1/10th cut (powertrain and fuel tank, not the entire car) in the future. Battery has no such breakthrough in near future.

I don't think Toyota is delaying next gen Prius because of FCV. Prius is nearing the theoretical limit. Improving it by another 10% takes more work. They have announced new gas engine with 10% higher efficiency and I think Gen5 will come with it.

Green Car Congress: Toyota targeting thermal efficiency of more than 45% for next-generation gasoline engines for hybrids

 

Hydrogen is a very small molecule, and thus can penetrate materials pretty easily. This is called "permeation" and it means the hydrogen leaks out right through the walls of the tank.

There are several strategies to mitigate this, the most prominent of which is to line the high-pressure tanks with something that can slow the migration of hydrogen through the tank walls. These can include metals such as stainless steel to plastics such as high-molecular-weight polymers.

 

Toyota: You don't want to miss this Detroit Auto Show announcement

Livestream Reveal Starts 1/13 at 8:50 a.m.

Any idea? NS4 Anyone?

 

Shoes?

 

Most online speculation is about a new Supra. I hope for a new Prius but I don't think it is likely.

 

PLEASE LET IT BE THE GEN 4...sheesh. Make it a 2015 model released later this year. NS4? Already announced and shown so doubtful. Maybe the supra...

 

Gen 5 or Gen 4? How forward looking are we talking about?

 

From past Toyota announcements it sounds like 43% peak ICE efficiency is an upper bound that Toyota is confident in reaching over the next two generations.

I expect G4 (the upcoming model) to be in the range of 39 - 41%. Toyota tries to improve overall fuel economy by 10% every generation. By that measure Prius has two more generations of improvements before a wall may be reached, but by that time the focus may be on inexpensive batteries that provide at least half of the miles driven, for a ~ 120 MPG (not MPG(e).)

Looks like this in my crystal ball:
Car that is driven 15,000 miles a year, half w/ grid electricity
Remainder of 7,500 ICE miles at 60 mpg -> 125 gallons a year.

All it takes is petrol at ~ $10/gallon

 

Sorry, I meant Gen4 (next gen).

 

Talked to a Toyota products specialist at Silicon Valley auto show who claimed there will be an announcement about the next gen Prius at either the Detroit, Chicago or NYC auto show, he's not sure which. One show is in about June, the other in October.

 

Interesting! From what I can find online, the Chicago auto show is due in february (8th through 17th) and NYC Auto show is scheduled for april 18th to the 27th. Chicago claim to be the largest auto show of the nation - I thought it was the NAIAS being the largest ?