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4th generation coming 2015!

Discussion in 'Gen 4 Prius Main Forum' started by edmcohen, Nov 6, 2012.

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  1. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    I don't think anyone on here is buying that, maybe other places online, but not here. All the arguments in this thread generally revolve around there being many more variables in play than simply which battery tech is the most efficient.
     
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  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I still hear the arguments, and think the reason toyota may be sticking with nimh is this perception out there, but I'm glad if that idea is going away from the priuschat community.

    The big things that make the prius the more efficient than other hybrids - weight, rolling resistance, and lower drag. The aqua/prius c chose lower rolling resistance but higher drag, amounting to the same EPA mileage figure YMMV. People can at least see the trade off. In hybrid world weight isn't as important, but rolling resistance of the tires definitely is. The gen IV rumors are a 5% reduction in weight, lower rolling resistance tires, and lower drag from a slightly different shape.

    Weight is a trade off area. The prius liftback makes a number of choices to be lighter including use of aluminum, and lack of sound insulation. The aluminum adds to costs, and may have pushed them to use less expensive materials in the interior to make it up. I hope gen IV gets US production, where lower production costs can make up for some of the trade offs.
     
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  3. windstrings

    windstrings Certified Prius Breeder

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    Bottom line, IMHO... lol!
    If you want the best of the best in prius, it will be found in the pip....
    To many the extra cost will not be worth it, regardless if they take advantage of plugin.

    Everyone has to draw a line in the sand somewhere as to what they're willing to pay for a tad extra efficiency and goodies.

    For now, there is a strong market for the regular NiMh non plugin prius... I have no issue with that, it's good business... But let's also continue the slogan Toyota has spent millions to develop.... The one called.... "Moving Forward"!

    Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2
     
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  4. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    PiP with Lithium is still rated 50 MPG combined despite the extra weight from the plugin hardware. It gets 1 higher highway MPG but that could be due to the lack of 17" rim trim model.

    Prius Alpha with Lithium gets a bit higher MPG than the NiMh model. Lithium is more sensitive to the extreme temps so the real-world MPG has to be considered.

    The important NiMh patents are expiring in 2014 so, the cost has to come down. It'll be interesting to see what Gen4 is going to use. Honda moved to Lithium after their supplier Sanyo got bought by Toyota/Panasonic.
     
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  5. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Also it seems that Toyota is targeting different areas. Recall that MotorTrend article a few pages back. It seems like Toyota is focusing on weight and handling. Weight, though expensive, has implications on a lot of things - acceleration, braking, cornering and fuel economy. The change to a double wishbone suspension is intriguing to say the least (no one ever put 'great handling' and 'Prius' in the same sentence but Akio Toyoda just might do it). Toyota did the major engine overhaul with the Gen 3 and typically the engine are in production for two life cycles at the minimum so I expect the same 1.8 litre engine with minor updates (if at all) to bring it up to speed (though don't be surprised if it's a carryover).

    This means they'll focus on a different area (e.g. weight and suspension as mentioned above). Hopefully battery is also part of the HSD overhaul (since the battery was the carryover item in the Gen 3).
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    It would be cool to see what the v really did versus alpha. I haven't seen any test data. Many lithium chemistries do better in heat and cold versus nimh, but I don't know about the cells panasonic uses. Lithium requires more complicated charging/conditioning circuitry, but once the NRE is done, these extra costs ave very low per vehicle.

    Panasonic holds the important Nimh patents for battery cells, and with the purchase of Sanyo has a monopoly on the technology. The prius battery cell has remained virtually unchanged since 2003, which leaves a decade to bring costs down. I don't see why costs would decline now that panasonic has a monopoly.

    If you are talking about the cobalsys patents, these have pretty much been freed up, and if they were better for hybrids, panasonic would have likely licensed them. They are better for plug-ins, but appear much worse than state of the art Lithium chemistries. That is why panasonic bought sanyo, better lithium chemistry, instead of licensing the cobasys stuff. Bosch and Samsung hold the patents now. You can try to compare the 2013 RAV4 EV with lithium versus the previous model with cobasys batteries. Its difficult to know costs, but odds on that old Rav4 would cost more to produce than the new one. Part of the lower cost could be tesla's economy of scale though.

    There is no market for nimh for plug-ins at current battery prices. Samsung would already be selling them if there was a good market.

    For hybrids Ford, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Porsche, VW, etc use lithium. Some of these companies used to use sanyo, but Ford says, panasonic is now selling them lithium cells at a lower cost than the nimh they put in the last generation car. Odds are Toyota is paying less than ford and honda had to pay after the merger.
     
  7. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Thanks USB for this post! Prius Alpha vs. Prius v. Hope this put the Lithium vs. Nimh debate on ICE :) .
     
  8. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  9. Eug

    Eug Swollen Member

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    I may be in their target market. I've owned the 2001 Prius, but got rid of it in 2004 because I found it impractical and underpowered. The seats on that thing didn't even fold down (in Canada) which was a huge annoyance. In 2004 I got the new gen Prius, and that's what I'm driving now. I'm not a senior citizen just looking for gas mileage, but I found the technology kinda cool. However, I still want a car for mainstream reasons. What I want from a 20teens Prius is:

    1) Aux input on my stereo system. This is seriously the number 1 beef I have with my 2004 Prius.
    2) Better organization and of the controls for the multifunction display.
    3) Better handling. I'm thinking the change in design and suspension may help that.
    4) AWD.

    Personally, I don't care at all if the new battery is NiMH or Li-ion. NiMH has treated me well, so I see no urgent need to change. I don't really even care about improved gas mileage, and I'm not expecting a 10 mpg improvement either, unless the car gets significantly smaller.

    Timing is pretty good for me. I was planning on updating my car in 2015 or later. My 2004 runs fine, but little things are starting to go. I had to replace my multifunction display a couple of years back. I did it myself with a used one from the US for $300 because Toyota wanted $1100-3000 to replace it. My CD player no longer functions because a CD is stuck inside. The paint is bubbling up on my hood, and it looks kinda ghetto. I've had to replace wheel bearings, and the guys say my shocks should be replaced soon. Still, I'm thinking I'd upgrade later rather than earlier, as I only have 130000 km on the Prius. I figure if I upgrade at 200000 in 2017 I'd be OK. Maybe by that time they'll have the kinks worked out of the new engine and drivetrain design.

    BTW, one of the reasons I was willing to get the 2001 Prius and then the 2004 Prius was because of the killer tax rebates at the time. In fact, for the 2004 Prius I got the rebates twice, because I first leased the car and then I bought out the lease, and it was a loophole that allowed me to claim the tax rebates on the same car twice.

    With a 201x Prius Generation IV, I won't have any rebates at all, so I'll be looking at it more critically, and so things like AWD become more important.
     
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    OK what is with that dancing?

    Toyota FT-HT Yueija Is A Hybrid Not Named Prius - Gas 2


    The 3 rows by 2 seats is definitely an interesting design look. It allows you to decrease frontal area, which should reduce drag, and I'm guessing if you can get them to fold flat, allow you to choose cargo room or passenger room. Hate the suicide doors.
     
  11. windstrings

    windstrings Certified Prius Breeder

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    The new avalon 2013 I just bought has more pep than the prius by a good degree. Along with sporty handling that's very responsive for a full sized car.

    Not only has a good sport mode, but you can slide the shifter to the left and it drops you into 6 gears of sport mode which I suppose replaces the "B" mode in the prius but it's tied to the drive too.

    If you want to dart around spinning your tires it will do it.

    Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2
     
  12. Eug

    Eug Swollen Member

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    Hmmm... Maybe by 2017, I could even get a used Generation IV. :)

    However, I was glancing over at that 100000 mile used Prius purchase thread and it's making me think I should keep my 2004 even longer. ;)
     
  13. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Personally I don't think that having an AWD version would pay off for Toyota. Yes you have a small market of people that want AWD. But I'm guessing the vast majority of those people aren't dead set on a Prius (they may be looking more at Subaru).
     
  14. Felt

    Felt Senior Member

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    As I have pointed out, I don't see AWD in the Prius future because they would need to increase the ground clearance. My thought is that would have a negative impact on fuel efficiency.
     
  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    The rumor came from the motor trend interview of a Toyota insider. It seems a number of people have asked for this feature, and toyota is at least considering it as an option. There is no reason to increase ground clearance, toyota isn't talking about making this an off road vehicle, just one that is safer in the rain and snow. If they can pull it off as a $1500 option that doesn't hurt gas mileage, as they have in the hihy, then why not?
     
  16. windstrings

    windstrings Certified Prius Breeder

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    And of course if they really want to be hip just add hydraulics you can set the car water level you want

    Alan.. Sent with Tapatalk 2
     
  17. Felt

    Felt Senior Member

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    It seems I did not express myself very well. I am not opposed to AWD (my 2nd car is an AWD), I will just be surprised if Toyota makes it standard ... More probable in my mind, AWD could be at an "add extra."

    I am very sensitive to ground clearance, because I scrape the front air-dam virtually every time I turn from a main street to a secondary street (here in the west, the side gutters are the storm drainage, and there is a noticeable dip).

    I have "googled" and read everything I can find on the G4 as of this date. It seems pretty clear that no-one has any credible clues as to what the G4 will be; what the features will include; or what it will look like.

    I see a lot of hopes expressed that it will be faster, lighter, more fuel efficient, improved 1.8 l ICE, smaller and more efficient Hybrid System, more agile handling, improved aerodynamics, lower rolling resistance tires, upgrade interior materials, more sound insulation, reduced road noise, larger battery (but not infringing on interior space) providing an assortment of chemistries and charging options, AWD, assembled in the USA, and all at a low competitive cost.
    That would seem to be a very high "hurdle" to accomplish..... but if anyone can do it, I'm betting Toyota can.

    It will be fun to see how all this "shakes-out."
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Completely agree, the rumor was optional, not standard. It may not harm fuel economy, but it will add to price.


    This is where the rumors come from, supposedly a toyota engineer.

    Radical New Toyota Prius in the Pipeline - Motor Trend

    Looks are an artist rendering, and it is unlikely to look like that.


    Now you at least know motortrend is the source of spreading most of the rumors. The US production was more official toyota in 2008 and 2012, they seem to be backing away from a commitment right now. I have not heard of a larger battery rumor other than in the phv, nor better sound insulation, but either or both may happen. Your guess is as good as mine if these things will actually happen.
     
  19. Felt

    Felt Senior Member

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    austingreen, I always enjoy reading your post. Motor Trend is not the sole source of "rumors." I thought I would repeat a few highlights from an article appearing on the auto express.com website. The article credits "a Toyota engineer" as the source. ............ Notice they say "will be" not "rumored."
    "The next Toyota Prius will be four-wheel drive, capable of 90mpg-plus and launch in 2015 alongside a plug-in version – “The rearwheelswill be driven by a motor in an e-4WD system. They will operate at up to 37mph.”
    "A new ‘C’ platform will help the Prius shed 70kg. The current 1.8-litre engine will be modified, while the inverter and motor will be downsized, but will deliver more power.”
    "The car will be not only quicker than at present, but also capable of more than 90mpg fuel economy and with CO2 emissions of under 70g/km"
    "There’ll be a new design to go with the radical tech. The [hood] height will drop by at least 90mm and the car will lose its wedge shape, The A-pillar will move backwards and the roofline will be pushed forward by around 500mm.”
    "The regular Prius will keep its nickel-metal hydride batteries, with advanced lithium-ion tech reserved for the plug-in model. Toyota engineers still feel the cheaper, old-style batteries manage power delivery better when it comes to intensive use and charging."
     
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  20. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    wow Eug, only 130,000? We have 200,000km on our 2005 but we do take more trips to the US.
     
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