4th generation coming 2015!

Again, why? Hybrids have a 3% market share. It isn't as if everyone, or even a simple majority of people buying plugins would buy a Hybrid if the plugins were not available.

By the polls I conducted, the number of Plugin owners that replaced hybrids is less than 20%.
Almost as many are replacing SUVs or Trucks.

And EVs are cleaner everywhere in the U.S. than the average car.

Even in your world where the Prius is the best in this area, you are getting less than 3% of the market to adopt this "best" solution.
If the EVs can get 20% market share over the same timeframe hybrids reached 3% (15 years), even if they are almost as good, the improvement will be much greater.

 

Zythryn,

In what world will EV sales get to 20%? Total sales for cars $40,000 or more was 11% of total sales (18% of total revenue).

Luxury car sales, status counts and the rich get richer - Fortune

Those numbers include your Tesla, One of the limiting factors in the growth of Hybrids is the perceived "Hybrid Cost Differential" (about $3000). EVs have a similar or larger differential along with their accompanying "Range Anxiety" (which is why my wife refuses to consider an EV as viable for either of our cars).

The most we have ever paid for a car is $23,000 and I will need to stretch that to about $30,000 for our next car to get an AWD hybrid.

JeffD

 

I wouldn't worry about the EVs using dirty electricity at this point - their numbers are too small and the grid is getting cleaner faster than EV cars are being added to the mix. The US consumes about 4,000 TW-hr annually. If all cars were to go electric overnight. They would add 1000 TW-hr of usage to the grid (or 1000 Billion kW-hr if you like kW-hr). Which is a 25% increase.

The Math:
cars travel about 3,000 billion miles per year in the US. at 3 miles per KW-hr (for an EV today), that requires 1,000 billion KW-hrs of energy.
Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Travel in the U.S., 1960–2006

So if EVs penetrate the US market by 20%, then that would add to our grid demand by 5%.

20% penetration is going to take some time. Today most new generating capacity being added to the grid is renewable.

 

Your question, and following sentence have nothing to do with one another.
The majority of plugins are less than $40,000.

In 15 years, hybrids are around 3% market share of new sales.
My prediction is that 15 years from their introduction, 2025, plugins will have a 20% market share of new sales.

At the high end, there is currently no price differential between an Audi A8 and a Tesla Model S with the same performance.
As production scales and batteries improve, the price differential at the middle and economy end will also equalize without including incentives. I would guess between 2018-2020.

On top of that, the electric drive is simply more fun, convenient, and a better drive experience for a large portion of the market.

 

that's why they need to be 25k after incentives.

 

Today I stopped by the Toyota dealer to get a battery for my key fob. The front end of the new v is even uglier in person than in pictures (IMO). I sure hope that is not Toyota's idea of being "sportier."

 

It's a head turner!

 

oh nooooooooooooo! i thought it was the other way 'round!

 

Uh, "head turning" as done by Greek mythology's "Madusa"?

 

Virtually every report reveals that Toyota manufacturers one of the most dependable vehicles on the road. That is commendable.

However, in my opinion (and each of us has one), I really cannot think of a single new Toyota model that I find attractive. I hope that does not extend to the new G4.

Just a thought, when the G4 was delayed (reportedly to redesign and make "sportier"), it is a shame Toyota didn't install the new HSI in an modestly updated G3. I think statistics as well as public surveys, will reveal that the average buyer of a Prius is older with an elevated income. I can understand a desire to appeal to a more youthful buyer, but the cost become limiting to that segment of the market.

Thoughts?

 

You may not be into crossover (CUV) vehicles, but if someone tries to make a case that the newest Rav4 is ugly, they may need to be admitted to a mental institution.
Also, the Corolla is not a bad looking car whether inside or out. How about the new Avalon's? Great looking car inside and out.
Tundras, Tacomas, Highlanders, what's not to like about their looks?

 

pretty sure the 'new' camry, two generations ago, was designed to attract the 'youthful' buyer. not sure toyota will ever figure this out. it might be easier to just keep building the best.cheapest cars in the world and keep selling them like hotcakes.

 

Well I haven't been committed yet, but as the politicians often do, I want to "walk-back" my statement somewhat.

I was mostly thinking about the Prius v, the Camry and the Corolla. I really dislike the front end on those vehicles. Just an opinion ....
But since I am not in the market for any of those, it make little difference what my opinion is.

As a general statement, I really dislike gaping front grills, that are more often than not, fake decorations that are applied. The Lexus is doing it, as is Acura.

I looked at the Rav4 and the Highlander, and I have to admit I agree with your assessment.

 

Gee, I suddenly hear faint strains of "...beauty is in the eyes of the beer holders..." and just 'how many' Saki's does Toyota think we're gonna NEED?

 

what look appeals to young people? and if you make them happy, can us old farts be happy too?

 

The whole front "bumper" is an ornament, from the outset. Now with the jet intakes and fake corner air scoops it just keeps getting better.

 

Fake is fake...whether aerodynamics or design cues.

 

Yamaha V-Max comes to mind: fake gas tank and air scoops.

 

My point was, (and I have no statistics to prove it) but I really do not think the target market is/should be the "young people.: I mentioned being at Toyota buying a battery for my key fob, I was talking with the Parts Manager, and he quoted numbers from an un-named source, that most Prius buyers are in the 50-60 rage range, and earn over $80k per year. Where he got his figures I do not know.

 

This doesn't really answer your question, but I browsed a fairly recent Edmunds article of the '100 ugliest cars of all time'. There were a lot of older cars from the 40 up through the 80's and a dozen or so late model cars including ....

the Prius (liftback), PT Cruiser, Leaf, Pontiac Aztek, Nissan Juke, Nissan Cube and .... can't remember any more at the moment.

Posting this since Edmunds is such a large car website
100 Ugliest Cars of All Time on Edmunds.com

I have no idea how Toyota can make the Prius liftback like it is and create what the masses will consider 'cool' and want to buy. What I hear most often about the Prius is 'I don't want to buy a car that looks like that'.