4th generation coming 2015!

Because the battery capacity doesn't give you enough EV range?

 

I was able to chat with a BYD manager between talks during a panel discussion about EVs. I mentioned that I felt the need to "baby" my Li-ion battery and my NiMH Prius batteries. He told me it was good to treat the Li-ion battery gently, but that the NiMH battery in the Prius would be virtually indestructible. Toyota babies the battery with its software. If I make sure I don't park in direct sunlight in Phoenix, I think I'll sell the car before the battery wears out even if it is 10 yrs+

 

That'll be a while, but the 3 is on my shortlist if I don't grab a more affordable stopgap before 2017! The upfront cost is still prohibitive for many.

 

The 3 will likely be my next car as well.

 

Mine will have too many miles to get a good trade in so I'll either keep it and be happy till something more dramatic comes out or go another direction but I'm not getting more of this same.

 

That's a good point, as I'm sure I'll be over 50k by 2017 as well.

 

Looks like the Prius look alike "Honda Insight" is now being discontinued. Honda lost that contest trying to challenge the Prius for a lower price!! I do not like the delay from Toyota...I wonder if they spent too much manpower on the hydrogen fuel cell car and not enough on getting the new Prius on the market on schedule! Lithium batteries are already available out there so I dont see that as being a reason for the delay. I have been waiting to buy the next generation Prius and this delay disappoints me because now it looks like toward the end of next year (December 2015) is when they are saying it will be available. 1 1/2 years away. That is a long time in my book and with the competition catching up, Toyota may be falling behind.

 

There is nothing that says "falling behind" is a bad thing. Marketing has convinced us that the most of something is a sign of leadership. That's called advertising, when they make you purchase something with greater capacity than what you actually need. They appeal to want and make the others appear to be falling behind.

Fortunately for us, Toyota isn't playing that game. They've told us repeatedly that cost-reduction is a very high priority. Sadly, many haven't actually heard that message. People tend to listen to the "most" promotion instead; consequently, they get the wrong impression.

Lithium batteries are indeed available, but they aren't in high-volume nor are they cost-competitive. That's a big issue some people overlook and others aren't aware of. If you listen to enthusiasts, they tend to dismiss that reality and focus on range & capacity instead.

Talk to an ordinary consumer, someone who would otherwise purchase a Camry or Corolla. They're the audience, the market Toyota wants to capture. They're big deterrent is price. It's not whether or not other automakers are "rushing ahead". There will obviously be cross-shoppers, but attracting them isn't as important as making the hybrid a stronger product in Toyota's own production-line.

In other words, the "competition" isn't what you think it is.

 

Falling behind Who? Compare Side-by-Side

5 Reasons to Drive the 2014 Toyota Prius

 

That Honda goes 743 miles between tanks.. Not bad.

There will always be a cheaper way to do things with older technology... But that's NOT the reason we bought a Prius in the first place.... Right?
It was all cutting edge once upon a time.
Now it's no more special than the diesel was when it first entered the car market.

The earthquake wasn't that long ago, I'm sure that didn't help progress.

John has a point "does it have to be special"? No...

But I do like running innovative new technology... I guess Toyota spoiled me....

I'm ready for more "special ".. We haven't seen that for several years now and the competition is taking a huge bite out of the market
.... The good part is it's allowing public acceptance since it's coming from so many angles now.

Common Toyota, give me something to Brag about!

 

If Li-ion battery prices are $500/kwh, then boosting the PiP range to 30 miles would take perhaps 7 or 8 more KWh of battery capacity.
That would be ~$3500. At 3.50 per gallon, you could buy 1000 gallons with that money. For a prius, that would take 50,000 miles to break even.

To drive that amount on electricity would cost 50,000/3.5 miles/kwh = 14,000 KWH. At 15 cents per kwh, that would be another $2,000.

The loss of use of that $3500 (you could put it into a preferred stock and get 7% on that money during the time you were accumulating your 50,000 miles). Could start out to be $245 per year and diminish as you gain some savings driving on electricity over gasoline. So say that is another $500 for three years or so. So you'd have to drive another 10,000 miles or so to pay back that $500 in lost opportunity.

Bottom line is that payback takes a lot of driving. The less you drive, the less likely you are to save money. Which makes the corolla buyers stick with corolla.

So battery cost is the main limiter I would say in getting the cars to be more widely purchased, i.e., non EV/Hybrid enthusists. In places were electricity is high, the payback might not even exist.

But competitors are catching up to Toyota, they have to focus on one or two key items that their competitors can not easily achieve and achieve it first. Lower battery cost would be very important.

 

I wonder if the delay was due to the new IIHS small overlap frontal crash test.

 

The Prius is not just about rentability. I bought mine at a much higher price than my previous cars, to embrace the technology, show it to others and fight against the oil business monopoly and of course help to reduce pollution. If I had the money I would buy a Tesla right away even if I don't drive enough to make it a good purchase financially.

So for the next Prius I want the range of the Volt and I would pay for it. If they want to keep the price down just give us the option of the battery size!!

 

I don't like the delay either but I suspect this time around Toyota has to deal with the overhead of getting the TGNA platform right as it is to be used in more than one car.

At this point I would be very happy just getting some solid information from Toyota regarding TGNA, Prius G4, PIP G2 and about other Toyota Hybrid cars confirmed for production. A sneek preview or sketch would also keep me interested.

 

Are you willing to pay for it with less cargo space, less efficient gas and electric operation? I am sure there are many other variable that Toyota need to balance it out.

 

We're not buying Prius is now because they're cheaper are we?


I totally see your rationale, but buying a Prius in the first place takes about 6 years to recoup the value back to make up for the extra cost of it being a hybrid so you're right on target.... let's do it!

Why stop now? Any new technology is not going to be cost effective compared to the old until it becomes common place. And can be made cheaply.

 

my generation 3 battery frame already has extra room for a much bigger lithium ion battery.

Maybe that's the same size they're using in the plugin I don't know? But yes I could easily give up a little cargo space or they could be creative like tesla and build it into the frame

 

I like mozdzen's cost analysis. That mirrors the way I think of things.

I would add to that, so many of you have touted lithium batteries..... with 97k plus miles on my old "tried and true" battery, and with no signs of "reduction" in its potential, I am perfectly content with the current battery. From everything I read, lithium's long term potential is not fully known, and what is known is it's inclination to loose potential as it ages. If you add the cost of replacing the HV battery to mozdzen's analysis, you would never break even.

 

NS4 is supposedly a dedicated plugin. I hope that means they will be able to fit more kWh and still have room for a spare tire.

Cargo space is one thing. If adding more battery reduces overall efficiency, that pretty much defeat the point of plugging in. You plug in to tap higher efficiency EV operation just to drag back down by lower HV operation (i.e: Volt and Energi).

The key is to increase efficiency of both EV and HV and still displace gas miles with electric miles. That's what PiP is. You actually benefit by plugging in and not giving up on anything else.

Blindly adding more battery to get more EV miles can be counter-productive. Considering all of those require balancing a lot of attributes.

 

But then you have Tesla willing to pour money into LiION, must speak for something. Plus the chemistry of LiION can change.

I don't know what Toyota will do, but they bought that wireless charging, and unless they have a brand new battery, I don't think the wireless charging won't be for LiION.

I'm just learning to stay calm/patient...waiting for any news. Excited for new Leaf and Volt 2.0 news as well!