4th generation coming 2015!

inferno's message is saddening. I think your previous message made compellingly good sense. All I can figure is Toyota is having difficulty completing all aspects of the new system, and meeting Toyota's expectation of reliability.

If there is any truth to that, it is too bad. I predict that a model year 2015 Prius with few changes will not be received with much enthusiasm, and with other manufacturers selling very capable models, Toyota could easily slip as an "also ran." True, the Prius may still be the leader in fuel efficiency, but some will consider that secondary to a more attractive fresher design, agile handling, quicker performer with fuel efficiency only a few miles per gallon lower than the Prius.

In addition, a "same-old, same-old" 2015 Prius will certainly not find much interest among the automotive magazines. Many cars are purchased on the basis of what consumers have read in the magazines. If Toyota expects to find any excitement in next years model, they will need to drop the price .... after all, they will benefit from another year of not retooling, redesigning the assembly line, or factory shut-down.

 

I agree with you. A price drop would definitely facilitate for now. Drop the Prius 2-3k and the Pip 2-3k. Currently a Volt is like as much as a PiP after incentives.

If it's just the 'same-old' this will definitely be the year where the market share swings the other way to all the other options. We already had a hint of it with the Prius family being beat out by the Accord family.

Recently Toyota posted their best month in a while with Prii, but I suspect it won't hold. Accord Plugin needs a price drop, and there are a ton of options.

Plus now GM Volt 2.0 will go head-to-head (how is it that GM would change over the Volt faster than the Prius?) It's a model change too and more aerodynamic with multiple car options...If indeed we compare a Volt 5-seater with 50 miles EV, 49 mpg vs a PiP 20 miles EV, 5 seater and 55 mpg, I would go Volt because of the higher EV and that mileage won't be much of a difference. ESPECIALLY if the price after Fed incentives drop it to PiP levels like they sort of do now...

Of course if Toyota hit the market first...Well, if it was all done right, I would buy right away Back to the cave

 

Don't forget that Toyota has the NS4 card up its sleeve! 2014 Busan Motor Show Toyota 토요타 관 탐방- YouTube
My predictions:

 

Both of you make interesting points. I would not wager on either.

Personally, I have mixed emotions about the NS4. I'm just not sure where it fits in Toyota's scheme of things. A while back we heard that Toyota was going to make Prius, a family of vehicles (like the Corolla or the Camry). They have seemingly started down that path with the "V", the "C" and the "PIP." Is the NS4 an additional "family" or inspiration for the Prius. Where would it fit? Between the Prius and the Camry? I'm not sure.

One last point .... would Toyota release the NS4 (assuming it is a separate vehicle) with old technology? I would surmise, that once the new technology is perfected, it will be the standard for the Prius and all it's variants, the Camry, and all the others.

I would say the NS4 is much closer to being a production vehicle than the GM concept shown severe post back. My only question re the NS4, is that is a 2 year or more old concept. Have Toyota designers had any recent ideas?

 

The Prius' largest market is in Japan, the second is the state of California. I don't think Toyota cares a hoot what or when GM does with their Volt.

 

Isn't Toyota's largest market place the US? Yes they have a commanding lead in shares in Japan, I don't think it's as good here.

My only hope is a similar situation as what happened in May'ish 2008. Toyota announced the 3rd gen, but also said the 2009 model would be carried over and a short model year.

Here are my concerns:

• Spy shots a year ago
• News articles pretty scattered over the months of the 4th gen prius or 2015 prius
• Toyota trying wireless charging with no news articles pertaining to that anymore
  • I'm worried that this might not pan out as they want, they started testing this year, but honestly how efficient is it? There is wattage loss probably more so than a direct wire. Yes there's convenience, but Prius is about efficiency no matter the fuel
• If the 2016 Prius still uses NiMH I will be extremely disappointed - the tech sure holds true for over a decade and a half now, but if we always went by 'if it aint broke don't fix' especially when we're pushing efficiency, Toyota will be asking to be just leapfrogged as they slowly are getting close to competition - it's the same scenario in IE6 vs FireFox, and now Microsoft has lost its share, it's almost happening with the iPhone - gotta keep innovating
• I will be disappointed if the delays are cause by wireless charging

All said and done, we are looking for another car, not sure if we can wait for the 2016 model. In the meantime, my 2010 is holding up quite well anyway and almost paid off. Love the 3rd gen - I almost thought the timing for the 4th gen would be perfect for our needs. Of course if we wait a little more we will see a whole lot more options also...

 

I really thought it was Japan as first - still. Any recent stats available on that?

I have a "new car CD account" at the bank that matures in Dec. 2014. I could only hope that there is news on or by that day - which would be sweet. The plan is to replace the 2010 (bought in June 2009) with a GenIV plug-in model. I can wait as the miles are still kinda low on the car, but am optimistically anxious for a refreshed model, and as soon as they can get their act together. If it goes long well into 2015, Toyota will be passing up a heck of a lot of sales of the replacement as their fan base decides they can't wait any longer and drives off to the competition. And by then, they'll have plenty of competition.

I do share your worry about the old battery tech, and add to that worry that the EV-only range will be too low to get excited about on the PiP. The wireless charging pad rumor I have little concern about, unless that's the only option to charge it up. I believe the added price tag (most probable) for that tech and possible loss of efficiency might push sales the opposite direction than intended. I'd much rather just plug it in every other day for a few hours.

 

I know that some will disagree ..... but after reading all of the speculative comments about the next generation Prius, and assertions that the NS4 may be a concept from which the G4 will receive inspiration ..... every time I see one of the Hyundai models pass (not sure which model is it) I do a double take to make sure that it does not have a Toyota emblem. Do any of you see any similarity between the Hyundai and the NS4?

 

I love this 2015 speculation. Every morning before I go to the job I look to see what news there is about the Prius. Kinda like Prius "train spotting." I am sure some folks have seen this rendering before? Burlappcar: 2015 Toyota Prius This rendering looks pretty reasonable.

 

...and, notice the date, 18-July-2013.

 

That will be great if the Volt is able to pull its EPA number up to 49 mpg and increase its EV range substantially. Right now, the PiP has a 33% lead on mpg. If the PiP is able to maintain a similar lead in the next generation, and get 20 miles EV, it should still have a strong market niche.

Some others have mentioned this and I hope for the same - that the next gen PiP also has an option for larger capacity batteries for those willing to sacrifice cargo and/or passenger space.

 

You know, come to think of it...there is a few "educated" observations I have:

• GM said definitely they're keeping tight lipped about something - possibly another plugin vehicle. We do know this:
  • There will be to Volts in the family of Volt, both more aerodynamic to boost MPG, one will have even higher EV range, the other one lower and a 5th seat and cheaper (better compete with PiP)
  • GM specially said they want to 'surprise' the competition whatever that means!
• Toyota has been touting the NS4 Plugin for some time now, I think it's actually in production now, this will compete directly with the Volt for the highest rebate - **OR** they're waiting for the government to release the 10k rebate and this is the vehicle to get to it
  • The 4th gen PiP will have more range for sure, whether if it's just a 4 mile EV increase (15 miles EV) or 20 is yet to be seen. I'm leaning toward 16 or so and realworld figures to be 20 and 22 at times. I'm also guessing an improved EV motor modeled for efficiency - and this is without any sacrifice to space other than the spare - 4th gen will be a little larger anyway and a smaller engine

All and all it will be exciting where all this takes us. But now the NS4 makes sense, to compete with the extended EV market that almost everyone has joined. The PiP I think will remain modest about its EV range. NS4 will be high end and complete directly with the Volt and BMW i3 and perhaps try to take some leaf/tesla sales.

 

I read a year or so back that GM was considering a plug-in Cruze.

 

DEVIL'S ADVOCATE - Will that new VOLT also incorporate GM's infamous "ignition switch" (wink,wink)?

 

Judging by what I see here:

I don't think the solar-roof concept has been well-spread especially for Ford. This is a very interesting concept, yes a full day to charge a car, but imagine for the Prius - regular solar panels with 300 watts charging. Using 3rd gen tech and the solar energy being treated as an alternate source of charging energy (like the breaks) - I think the regular prius could easily go from 50 mpg to 55-60 mpg because of the constant energy slowly filling the battery.

Now think about PiP with Solar. Toyota could eventually say their PiP could go 15 miles EV with sunny conditions instead of 11. Then there's the fact of stopping and resting and using the plug and not having to take in as much electric from the wall.

Then of course it's SunPower who's doing it for Ford and they are extremely reputable on the forefront of the most efficient cells.

If only Ford could fix those mpgs then this would be an interesting option for the Gen 2 CMax which I'm sure Ford will announce later this year or early next.

 

In sunny SoCal, while sitting in bumper to bumper traffic, this might actually give the few extra miles of commuting range.

 

Anywhere really. 300 watts was put on the CMax. They could potentially put a little more. And if the EV motor is really efficient, it could do even more. But then you could go to the bathroom or lunch break at a pit stop and maybe earn 2 miles. Park at your friends house all day, get a full charge without taking their energy.

I would choose a car with PiP's EV range over higher range in a heartbeat if it had this feature.

 

Keep in mind, most commuters drive in the earlier morning and later afternoons when PV collection would be rather suboptimal. It's still a much better idea than "Solar Freakin' Roadways", if you've been following that.

 

A lot of people don't even qualify for the current highest $7,500 tax credit simply because they don't pay that much in fed taxes to begin with- getting the full $10k fed tax credit would be even more rare. I'll be getting almost $7.5k back in 2015, but only $4.3k of it from the Volt purchase in 2014.
I hope EV manufacturers don't use the $10k tax credit as a selling tool...

 

Also I know a ton of commuters parking outside parking lots. Yes they travel to and fro to work, but most will park outside. Some maybe in a garage which at times may have a plug!

That's terrible ny_rob. I notice Nissan and Leaf will actually show the price after credit and then put a *, surprisingly Toyota does not do that on their site!

Do the EV tax credit carry over?