$4 gas coming by spring? Analysts think so

ya we will, and that will be next fall in 2009 when gas is averaging $5 per gallon, a figure that analysts have long predicted that people would start abandoning regular vehicles as being too expensive to drive.

then as if it were by pure coincidence, all the major auto manufacturers will finally release viable EV's and plug ins to the market. the naive will be grateful, but others, a large percentage of Priuschatters im thinking, will be wondering after a through examination of the EV's and plug ins as to why it took until fall 2009 to get them to market.

we will immediately realize that the technology was here in 2005, it could easily have been marketed by 2007... but then a lightbulb will come on and we will realize that in 2007, gas was $2.50 a gallon and neither the car companies nor the oil companies had a reason to put out a higher mileage car then.

a report released today... for the first time in 16 years, our gas consumption dropped... a small drop... and i only hope it becomes a HUGE drop... i would love to see how fast plug in timetables are accelerated if US consumption dropped say...10 %... that would equate to a few billion a day in revenue... betcha that will get someone's attention!!

 

You are dead right my friend.
Unfortunately those Americans and Australians and Canadians haven't heard the plan.

Oil prices tend to fluctuate due to northern summer and winter because a lot of homes and buildings are heated with oil.

 

If your talking about Europe; is that before or after taxes on a gas. My understanding is Europe has high gas taxes.:boink:
The norths atlantic, Norway, has very large oil fields.

 

I am afraid you are more optimistic than I am. I think it will require much higher prices before people quit driving, because they have committed themselves to living too far from their jobs, and public transportation in the U.S. is abysmal. Detroit is wedded to oil, so will be extremely reluctant to build EVs or PHEVs, and the general public has been so brainwashed into wanting big vehicles with a long range (so they can tow a boat on that once-a-year road trip, in case they ever can afford a boat, or a vacation) that they will continue to resist EVs.

People love my Xebra. But they all have some excuse or other for why they need their gas-guzzling SUV.

 

13 of the Cobasys patents on NiMH will expire in 2014. Also, Panasonics' (i.e. Toyota) licensing agreement with Cobasys will expire in 2014.

So, unless there is a breakthrough in Li-Ion, expect your Plug ins and EVs in 2015.

 

that is exactly the point i am trying to make

WE DONT NEED A BREAKTHRU!!

what we already have is more than enough to get us going and reduce our oil needs very significantly.

explain to me why darelldd is driving an EV that is 10 years old and it fits the needs of 95% of the commuters currently driving a gas only vehicle and its NOT FOR SALE?

ya, thats right, we HAD it 10 years ago...what is the reason we dont have it now...

answer: and yes, this question was rejected by the show "Are you smarter than a 5th grader" because it was deemed too easy...

the answer: because the oil companies know that gas is currently cheap enough that will grumble about it, but still pay it. PERIOD

notice no mention of battery technology, patents, etc...

 

The technology exists but so does the patent(s).

I'm not arguing that you are wrong, just that your timetable will be delayed.

We already had useful, usable EVs but they were killed off.

It appears that currently, NiMH is the best battery technology from the standpoint of durability and safety, but unfortunately that technology is withheld from the market by licensing agreement(s). Panasonic, et. al. tried to get the patent invalidated but they were not successful.

 

the reason we had them 10 years ago was because it was a law to make them. all we need is another law to make them again...

that is all... you know as well as i do, that as soon as they are on the market, there will be a waiting list to purchase them FOR YEARS... the demand is there. even if limited to 100 miles like darrelldd, there is more than enough to keep the prices very high due to demand well into the next decade, thats if it starts today.

 

Of course they do. C'mon Daniel, the xebra works well for you, but for the vast majority of people in this country it's not acceptable. Now if they were comparing it to a RAV4-EV and still making excuses you'd have a case.

 

The fact that we had EV's 10 years ago due to the CARB EV mandate is not in question. However, both the RAV4 EV and EV1 used NiMH batteries that are covered by a patents owned by Chevron. You will not see a EV with NiMH batteries until those patents expire or Chevron decides that it is in their best interest to allow the technology to be used. As it has been noted above, the patents have already unsuccessfully been challenged in court. No amount of ranting will change the patent law. NiMH EV technology belongs to Chevron's and they can use it or not use as they wish. Why is this so hard for you to understand?

So you do need a break-through in a different battery technology to bring EV's to market before the patents expire.

 

omg.... no wonder nothing gets done...

oh !! its a law... that explains everything... ok, never mind fixing things. we already have a law. the law fixes everything, no need to change. we ok...

 

Exactly, I'm glad you get it now. People are allowed patent rights to their inventions. Part of these rights is the ability to sell the rights to the highest bidder. I'm sure that Chevron will be happy to entertain offers if your willing.

 

I think you are dead on. It is going to take a lot more than the current price for people to really change behavior. It has been hovering around $3 nationwide for a long time and several of the top selling vehicles in the nation are still full-sized trucks. Not driving would require major lifestyle changes like moving houses, reassessing the need for those jetskis, etc, etc. The pain of change has to be less than the pain of not changing. So there is going to be more pain before we (society) really changes.

 

Li-Ion is archaic technology. It is unstable. LiFePO4 is the new lithium. That's what's in my Xebra now. Car makers can build cars with safe lithium today. They just don't want to.

Or a law depriving a patent-holder of its rights if a patent is used to keep a national security technology off the market. A "use it or lose it" law.

The courts have decided that the law allows Chevron to withhold a technology to which it owns the patent rights. But Congress can change the law to say that a technology found to be in the national security interest must be marketed, at a fair price, or the patent goes into the public domain.

Of course, the real problem is corruption: The lawmakers won't pass such laws because Big Business owns the legislators. If Big Oil says "We don't want EVs on the market" Congress will lick their boots and refrain from interfering in whatever nefarious methods they use to keep them off the market.

 

Duplicate post.

 

Lithium Iron Phosphate is still a type of lithium ion battery, at least in my understanding.

So, what is the holdup on the PHEV? Cost, safety or conspiracy?

I think Toyota still believes that NiMH is the best technology, but maybe we will get a surprise before 2015.

 

I thought that LiFePO4 was distinct from Li-ion. Both are lithium, but very different chemistry. But I don't know.

I presume the hold-up is that car companies own big chunks of oil companies. That's not "conspiracy." They make money selling gas. Why would they switch to selling cars that don't use gas?

 

the fact you are using it either means, the high price you paid is for patent licensing, or more likely, its a small start up that needs to charge the higher pricing to gain capital to increase their production capacity...

i think it the latter. but i dont know.

to be honest with ya. i still believe the oil/auto company conspiracy. the high price of gas will force a massive acceptance of new EV's and the higher costs that will come with them...

 

I'm sorry. I don't understand this. Why does the fact that I'm using the lithium battery mean anything except that I was willing to pay the price? My decision, of course, was based on my emotional desire to drive electric and to keep the Xebra running after I became disillusioned with the lead batteries, not on the straight economics of it.

I do not know what factors influence the price of the pack I bought, but I can say that it came from China, and also that the American company A-123 is also charging a high price for their version. LiFePO4 costs and weighs more per KWH of capacity than Li-Ion, but is much more stable, and therefore is safer and requires less monitoring and control than Li-Ion.

 

The OP missed $4 by a BUCK :jaw:

much less making it 'till spring



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San Luis Obispo County’s website | 03/14/2008 | Gorda: Land of $5 gas